Each year during the offseason, the NFL Competition Committee considers a series of changes, some of which are approved and instituted the following season. This year, one of the most important changes affecting scoring and proposition bets at top-rated sportsbooks is the new kickoff rule, which we will discuss below.
Low Impact
The new low-impact kickoff rule, designed specifically to limit injuries on the kickoff and created by the XFL, has been adopted this season by the NFL.
The kickoff from the 35-yard line will remain the same but all players on the kicking team, except for the kicker, will be stationed at the returning team’s 40-yard line. The players on the kicking and receiving teams cannot move until the ball has touched the ground or the receiving team has fielded the ball. Once that occurs, the kicking team members can spring into action and attempt to tackle the kick returner.
It should also be noted that the ball must land between the opposing team’s goal line and 20-yard line, which will be known as the landing zone. Should the ball be kicked into the end zone and not returned, it will be ruled a touchback and the first series will begin at the 30-yard line.
Safety First
The safety protocols in place are rather obvious. Instead of the kicking team’s tacklers building up a head of steam from the moment the ball is kicked, those players will no longer get the opportunity to run full speed at an unsuspecting receiver who has not called for a fair catch.
This low-impact approach will do more than protect the ball returner, it will facilitate kickoff returns once again and reinvigorate the special teams aspect of a play that has become dormant and more of a formality than a possible game-breaking event. Fans should expect to see more kickoff returns this season and less touchbacks in the end zone.
It appears to be a win/win for all parties concerned and will bring back an important component of what makes special teams so special without the high-speed collisions that have caused injuries in the past. In 2023, only 21% of the kickoffs were returned but with this new rule in place, 50% to 60% of all kickoffs are expected to be returned.
Handicapping Angle
The name of the game for the NFL owners is to create excitement and nothing does that more than scoring touchdowns. This rule, along with the spectacularly stupid hip-drop rule, which will prevent tacklers from dragging ball carriers down by the hip when they are behind them, will generate added scoring in more ways than one.
Skilled and speedy returners will have greater importance than ever before. Special teams coaches will have to strategize their kickoffs specifically to defend against a long-gainer or even a touchdown return. There will likely be two kickoff receivers, the maximum allowed under the new rule, in the landing zone for the returning team and the kickoff coaches may be incentivized to have their kicker kick the ball in the end zone and settle for the 30-yard touchback.
“A team might not feel good about their ability to cover kicks that week,” said Dallas Cowboys special teams coordinator John Fassel, “or the team feels like they’re kicking to a great returner or a kick return team that has an incredible drive start, it might just want to have a touchback.”
This will give the offense an additional five yards from where a touchback used to be placed (25-yard line), which means better field position and a higher probability of scoring. We should also be aware that receiving teams will be putting an emphasis on kick returning which, again, will have several ramifications. Not only will there likely be more kickoff returns for touchdowns but an increased possibility that fumbles will occur.
Game Changer
Another wrinkle to the new kickoff rule to be aware of is that if the ball lands untouched in the landing zone (the designated area between the goal line and the 20-yard line) then it is considered a live ball and with the defensive players beginning on the opposition’s 40-yard line, closer than ever before, the probability of a defensive recovery is enhanced. A change of possession in a team’s red zone can be lethal and facilitate even more scoring.
Scoring will likely increase this season for the aforementioned reasons. We should also note that props regarding kickoff touchdown returns will also be more likely to hit. There will be more strategy, excitement and ultimately scoring due to the rule change this season, so keep your eyes peeled on those totals.
The unpredictable nature of this new rule will also be fascinating to watch, which Detroit Lions head coach, Dan Campbell, alluded to when he said, “You want to feel like you’re going to do something that is a little unique or something they’re not prepared for. And really that’s what it is, right? You’re wanting to try to find something they’re not ready for, not prepared for, whatever that is. Maybe it’s been done, maybe it hasn’t.”
Calculators
