Top NFL Pick: Super Bowl LIX Winner – Kansas City Chiefs (+550) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Super Bowl LIX may still be a way off in 2025, but NFL teams have been busy tweaking their rosters to get better for the upcoming season. Free agency has already seen some big changes to teams, and the 2024 draft is just over a month away in April.
With people placing futures bets at top-rated sportsbooks on the Super Bowl LIX winner, the NFL odds are shifting in real-time. We wanted to take a look at where things stand as we get closer to April by looking at the updated Super Bowl LIX odds from BetOnline.
We will compare these odds to where they were just after the conclusion of Super Bowl LVIII when Kansas City defeated San Francisco last month to give you an idea of how much has changed already for certain teams.
We have broken the teams down by tiers with our favorite pick in each tier listed below.
Super Bowl Top Tier: Chiefs Still Favored to 3-Peat
Kansas City still headlines the top 7 teams with better than +1500 odds to win Super Bowl LIX:
- Kansas City Chiefs (+550) – Down from +500
- San Francisco 49ers (+600) – No change
- Baltimore Ravens (+900) – Up from +1200
- Cincinnati Bengals (+1200) – Up from +1400
- Buffalo Bills (+1400) – Down from +1200
- Detroit Lions (+1400) – Down from +700
- Philadelphia Eagles (+1400) – Up from +2000
The Eagles have jumped back into the top tier after a busy offseason that saw them make some of the best coordinator hires (Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio) as well as adding Saquon Barkley, Devin White, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Kenny Pickett, and DeVante Parker.
But they will have to overcome the retirements of Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox, a pair of long-time Eagles and likely Hall of Famers, and coach Nick Sirianni will have to prove the terrible slide last year was just a fluke.
But the Eagles are 1-of-3 teams with +1400 odds after the Bills and Lions have both slipped from February. Those initial Detroit odds (+700) were likely too optimistic as the team will still need to get much better on defense while they didn’t really address their No. 2 wide receiver position in free agency. Josh Reynolds’ dropped passes in the NFC Championship Game really did them in that day. The Lions will also face tougher competition in the division from Green Bay in 2024 after the way the Packers finished hot last year.
AFC Divisional Dynamics
It is a little surprising that Cincinnati (+1200) has moved ahead of Buffalo (+1400) again. The Bills have had a great run in the AFC East while the Bengals are still going to have to deal with Baltimore in a tough division. The Bengals really only upgraded the safety position in free agency.
Baltimore made a splashy move by adding Derrick Henry to the backfield. It is the perfect landing spot for King Henry, but can he handle another big load and stay healthy and effective through a long season into the playoffs where the Ravens continue to come up short offensively? Henry is 30 now. The Ravens also have to make sure the defense doesn’t regress too much after leading the league in points allowed, sacks, and takeaways last year under coordinator Mike Macdonald, who took the Seattle job.
The Unyielding Force to Beat
When it comes down to it, the Chiefs are still the team to beat and a hard team to bet against. While they did lose corner L’Jarius Sneed to the Titans over the weekend, they were able to bring back most of the defense, including their best player Chris Jones. They also added Marquise Brown to the wide receivers, which should be an upgrade over Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Another move could be coming after the Sneed transaction too with the money that frees up.
Are you still going to bet against Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, Steve Spagnuolo and company with a 3-peat and history on the line? Not me. Still riding with the Chiefs here, and don’t be surprised if they add another weapon high in the draft.
NFL Pick: Super Bowl LIX Winner – Kansas City Chiefs (+550) at BetOnline
The Next Tier: The Year 2 Boost for C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love?
Our next 7 teams in the 2nd tier all have Super Bowl odds better than +3000:
- Dallas Cowboys (+1800) – No change
- Green Bay Packers (+2200) – Down from +1600
- Houston Texans (+2200) – Up from +2800
- Los Angeles Rams (+2500) – Up from +3300
- New York Jets (+2500) – No change
- Miami Dolphins (+2800) – Down from +2000
- Atlanta Falcons (+2800) – Up from +3300
The Falcons (+2800) moved up into this tier after making the biggest quarterback move in free agency by signing Kirk Cousins to a 4-year deal worth up to $180 million. Cousins is an upgrade over Desmond Ridder, the Falcons have weapons, and moving on from coach Arthur Smith is also a positive for the franchise.
But is this defense really ready to compete for a championship? Let’s not forget Cousins is going on 36, coming off a torn Achilles, and he’s only 1-3 as a playoff starter in his career. At least the division is winnable, but there are better teams in the NFC than Atlanta with Cousins.
Dolphins’ Dilemma
The Dolphins have declined to +2800 after having a lukewarm free agency. They added a lot of marginal starters to the defense while losing Christian Wilkins (after a career year) and longtime corner Xavien Howard. They still have to show they can score points and beat the good teams in the league, something they’ve failed at miserably in 2 years under coach Mike McDaniel.
The Cowboys are the NFC’s version of Miami when it comes to beating the good teams. The salary cap situation was so dire that Dallas really didn’t do much in free agency outside of signing veteran linebacker Eric Kendricks. You have to wonder if this team already blew its best shot last year.
No change for the Jets (+2500) either as we still look to see if Aaron Rodgers can do anything at 40 years old and coming off a torn Achilles. Not a big fan of adding Mike Williams, an injury-prone receiver from the Chargers, to that offense.
Analyzing Odds Shifts
Another team that moved up into this tier is the Rams (+2500), which feels a little weird after they lost Aaron Donald to retirement. He was by far their most dominant player in the front 7, and it’s not like they upgraded that part of the defense in free agency, opting to improve the secondary with Kamren Curl and Darious Williams. The defense doesn’t look like a championship-caliber unit yet.
The teams that remain most interesting in this tier are the Packers (+2200) and Texans (+2200). Both can follow that model of having a 2nd-year starter at quarterback take off on a well-rounded team and win it all like the 2005 Steelers (Ben Roethlisberger), 2013 Seahawks (Russell Wilson), and 2019 Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes) all had. That’s the value of C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love already showing so much promise in 2023.
The odds boost from February favors Houston after a great addition of Danielle Hunter to the pass rush. The Packers have declined in odds from +1600 to +2200, but that’s still the better value play as it is simply easier to come out of the NFC than it is the AFC with all these great quarterbacks, led by Mahomes. We don’t know yet how Houston matches up with Kansas City, but we’ll see that matchup in the regular season this year.
Maybe we’ll see it in the playoffs too, but Green Bay becoming the NFC’s latest flash in the pan is still the right way to go here heading into the draft.
NFL Pick: Super Bowl LIX Winner – Green Bay Packers (+2200) at BetOnline
Need a Minor Miracle Tier
(Super Bowl Odds of +4000 to +7000)
Our next 7 teams all have odds in the range of +4000 to +7000, which would be a minor miracle given history. The only Super Bowl winner in the last decade to have preseason odds like this was the 2017 Eagles (+4000), so there is some precedent at least.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+4000) – Down from +3300
- Los Angeles Chargers (+4000) – Down from +2200
- Chicago Bears (+4000) – No change
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+4000) – Up from +6600
- Cleveland Browns (+4500) – Down from +3300
- Indianapolis Colts (+5500) – Down from +4000
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6600) – Down from +5000
One of the biggest drops in odds for any contender has been the Chargers, who have already gone from +2200 to +4000. It makes sense as they already have the uphill battle of toppling the Chiefs in the division, which has been won by Kansas City every year since 2016. The Chargers also lost their top 2 wide receivers (Keenan Allen and Mike Williams), top tight end (Gerald Everett), and top running back (Austin Ekeler), leaving Justin Herbert with a bare and untested group of weapons as he tries to learn this new offense from coach Jim Harbaugh and coordinator Greg Roman.
Yet, the Chargers still feel like the best bet in this tier to go all the way this year. We know Harbaugh went to the NFC Championship Game in his 1st season with the 49ers in 2011 when no one expected that. He’s won everywhere he’s coached; they will have a great chance to draft an elite wide receiver with the No. 5 pick like LSU’s Malik Nabers, and Herbert should have more of a running game and defensive support than he’s used to having. Maybe it all clicks right away for this team.
It just feels more likely than the Jaguars going all the way after Trevor Lawrence failed to improve with Calvin Ridley in town. Ridley’s gone to Tennessee, and the Jaguars had a mediocre free agency haul.
The Bears have had a really nice haul, including that trade for Keenan Allen from the Chargers for a mid-round pick. But expecting the team to draft Caleb Williams with the No. 1 pick, no rookie quarterback has ever started a Super Bowl before. That trend should continue in 2024 but Chicago could be moving up to that level down the road.
Steelers’ Quarterback Gambles
The Steelers have been boosted to +4000 after acquiring Russell Wilson and Justin Fields for peanuts, but neither move is guaranteed to work out in running new coordinator Arthur Smith’s offense. It feels like the potential for a lot of close games and sacks on both sides of the ball. But can the Steelers stop an elite quarterback in the playoffs? They haven’t been able to beat the lesser ones in the playoffs recently as Mike Tomlin hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016.
The last 3 teams listed feel like a case of other moves in the South divisions changing the odds. Tampa Bay retained most key players from last year, but the Falcons got Kirk Cousins at quarterback, so that’s an edge to Atlanta.
The Browns let Joe Flacco go after he showed more in a month than Deshaun Watson has in 2 seasons. He’ll be the backup in Indianapolis, and we may see him frequently if Anthony Richardson can’t stay healthy again.
If forced to choose, give me the best proven coach (Harbaugh) and best quarterback (Herbert) in this group. That’s the Chargers.
NFL Pick: Super Bowl LIX Winner – Los Angeles Chargers (+4000) at BetOnline
Bottom Tier: Total Dark Horse
(Super Bowl Odds of +7500 and Higher)
With the last 11 teams, you’d be talking about one of the biggest upsets in NFL history if any of these teams made it all the way to winning Super Bowl LIX. But as long as there’s a chance…
Not only were these teams longshots to begin with in February, but most have seen their odds decrease since:
- Las Vegas Raiders (+7500) – No change
- Minnesota Vikings (+8000) – Down from +5000
- Seattle Seahawks (+8000) – Down from +6600
- Arizona Cardinals (+10000) – Down from +7500
- Denver Broncos (+10000) – No change
- New Orleans Saints (+10000) – No change
- New York Giants (+12500) – Down from +10000
- Washington Commanders (+12500) – Down from +10000
- Tennessee Titans (+15000) – Down from +10000
- New England Patriots (+17500) – Down from +10000
- Carolina Panthers (+25000) – Down from +15000
The first order of business, eliminate the teams that are likely to have a rookie or very inexperienced quarterback. That means the Vikings, Broncos, Commanders, and Patriots.
We’re also going to continue doubting the AFC teams as getting past that elite group of challengers is too tall a task for the likes of the Raiders and Titans, both of which have big question marks to begin with.
Quarterback Concerns
Also going to pass on the teams that have quarterbacks who just never seem to improve their game to the next level no matter how long they’ve been in the NFL. That means the Saints (Derek Carr), Giants (Daniel Jones), and Cardinals (Kyler Murray).
That leaves the Panthers and Seahawks. Carolina had a 2-15 record and never took a single snap with a lead in the 4th quarter last year. Going from that to a Super Bowl would be monumental and unprecedented, and as much as the Dave Canales hiring made sense, don’t believe he’s Bill Walsh, Vince Lombardi, and Bill Belichick rolled into one super coach. They also traded pass rusher Brian Burns, the type of player you need to win a Super Bowl. But at least the division is winnable, so that would at least get me to bet on them before these other choices we’ve eliminated.
But the best pick here is Seattle. Maybe the 49ers take a step back in the division after coming up short again, and new coach Mike Macdonald improves the defense to make life easier on Geno Smith, who has a nice offensive cast around him.
It fits our beliefs on the NFC being the easier conference to come out of as well, and maybe Geno just gets lucky with a couple of game-winning drives in the playoffs after a career year. He can be on that Mount Rushmore of weirdest quarterback career arcs with the likes of Earl Morrall, Kurt Warner, and Nick Foles.
NFL Pick: Super Bowl LIX Winner – Seattle Seahawks (+8000) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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