Top NFL Pick: 1st Defensive Player Drafted – Dallas Turner (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The 2024 NFL draft kicks off today, Thursday, April 25. We have an exciting 1st round lined up with what should be plenty of picks made at quarterback, wide receiver, offensive linemen and corners.
Top-rated sportsbooks such as Bovada and BetOnline have a variety of interesting prop bets for how the 1st round will go down with bets for the 1st player taken at their position, how many 1st-round picks at different positions, and how many offensive and defensive players in the 1st round.
We are breaking down our favorite bets for these 1st round positional groups below.
1st Defensive Player Drafted
A common theme in our picks is going to be that this 2024 NFL draft is dominated by the offensive side of the ball in the 1st round. This draft does not have a dominant edge rusher that will go very high like Myles Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney, or like how Will Anderson Jr. went No. 3 overall to Houston a year ago.
It also does not have a dominant cornerback prospect at the top like Deion Sanders or Sauce Gardner. There are some good players who could go in the top 10, but the early teens are more likely for those corners like Quinyon Mitchell (+750 to be the 1st defender at BetOnline) and Terrion Arnold (+1800).
But there is a pass rusher who’s been favored by most draft experts this year, and that is Alabama’s Dallas Turner. Most prefer him over Jared Verse of Florida State. The question is where should Turner go, and which teams would definitely draft an edge rusher over a corner?
When you break this draft down, the top 3 picks should be quarterbacks, the next trio of picks (4-6) could easily be wide receivers, and then you get to the Titans at No. 7. They did just acquire L’Jarius Sneed from the Chiefs in a big move, so going corner likely isn’t on their radar. They could certainly be Turner-friendly.
But Turner should not get past the No. 8 pick for Atlanta. The Falcons need to get younger on defense after throwing together a bunch of veteran free agents last year. They have a new coaching staff with Raheem Morris, and he’ll need that cornerstone edge rusher to build around. Turner should be the pick in Atlanta, ending a potentially historic draft with 7 straight offensive players at the start.
NFL Pick: 1st Defensive Player Drafted – Dallas Turner (-105) at BetOnline
1st Non-QB Drafted
The top 3 picks in the draft should definitely be quarterbacks with Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye going to the most quarterback-needy teams at the top.
There is the slimmest of chances that a team trades up with Arizona to get the No. 4 pick and make J.J. McCarthy the historic pick to begin a draft QB-QB-QB-QB. That in theory could make the No. 5 pick of the Chargers the first spot for a non-quarterback since we know they are not replacing Justin Herbert.
Could the Chargers shock the world and say forget about wide receivers, let’s go with Joe Alt or Brock Bowers? It’s possible, but it would take a couple of improbable moves to get to that point.
That’s why we are going to stick with the idea of Arizona drafting the 1st non-quarterback at No. 4, and why wouldn’t they go with Marvin Harrison Jr.? He has all the tools to be a star right away, he has great genes, and he’s an even bigger body target than his dad was.
The Cardinals lost Marquise Brown (Chiefs) and Rondale Moore (Falcons), so they are very much in need of a new target for Kyler Murray. Harrison Jr. is an overwhelming favorite to be the 1st non-quarterback drafted, and we see no reason why that shouldn’t come to fruition on draft night.
NFL Pick: 1st Non-QB Selected – Marvin Harrison Jr. (-600) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
1st Offensive Lineman Drafted
We could see the Titans, who own the No. 7 pick, take the 1st offensive lineman in the draft. Their new coach, Brian Callahan, was the offensive coordinator in Cincinnati where the offensive line always got the blame for their shortcomings on that side of the ball. He’ll want to protect young quarterback Will Levis as best he can.
The Titans already used their top pick on left guard Peter Skoronski last year, so beefing up the left side with the top left tackle prospect in Notre Dame’s Joe Alt makes a ton of sense here.
That feels like one of the easiest picks to connect this year. Even if it doesn’t end up being the Titans and Alt, there is still a good chance Alt is the top lineman over Taliese Fuaga (+500 at BetOnline) and Olumuyiwa Fashanu (+650).
NFL Pick: 1st Offensive Lineman Selected – Joe Alt (-375) at BetOnline
Total Quarterbacks Drafted in Round 1
The over/under for total quarterbacks drafted in round 1 is set to 4.5 quarterbacks with the over (-175 at Bovada) having a significant edge right now.
We know Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniel, and Drake Maye are going high – most likely the top 3 picks in the draft this year. After that, someone is going to make the move for J.J. McCarthy from Michigan. Maybe it happens as a trade in the top 10, or maybe a team like Minnesota or Denver takes him with their picks in the 11-12 range.
So, we are all but guaranteed to get 4 quarterbacks in the 1st round this year. The question is who will be the 5th, and does he make that cut of the top 32 picks?
The oddsmakers sure seem to think so, and it makes sense since it can be very helpful to get a 5th-year option for that quarterback by making him a 1st-round pick. It gives a team more financial control over the early portion of that player’s career. In a perfect world, he plays great and gets an extension after his 3rd season, but sometimes things don’t work out that way. They keep you guessing like Daniel Jones in New York.
But a team who could use a quarterback like the Giants who may want to trade up into the 1st round is why this pick should hit the over. Bo Nix (Oregon) and Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) are the next quarterbacks in this class that should be competing for top 40 picks, if not 1st-round picks.
We have the Bears, Commanders, Patriots, Vikings, Broncos, Raiders, and Giants as the quarterback-needy teams going into this draft. You could also argue the Cardinals, who hold the No. 27 pick, are not in a long-term commitment with Kyler Murray, and that could be an 8th team in the mix for a new signal caller.
Rookie quarterbacks are cost-effective contracts for teams, and with a quarter of the league searching for that next franchise player, it shouldn’t be a surprise to see a handful taken in the 1st round this year.
NFL Pick: Total Quarterbacks Selected in Round 1 – Over 4.5 (-175) at Bovada
Total Offensive Players Drafted in Round 1
Most drafts have a fairly even split of offensive and defensive players selected in the 1st round. Last year, there were 16 defensive players and 15 offensive players. In 2022, it was 16 of each.
But we keep talking up the offensive talent in the 1st round of this 2024 NFL draft. That’s why the over/under is set at 21 offensive players in the 1st round.
Let’s break this down with odds by BetOnline:
- Quarterbacks: Over 4.5 quarterbacks are heavily favored at -200 as we expect to see Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, and at least one of Bo Nix/Michael Penix Jr. go in the 1st round.
- Running Backs: Under 0.5 running backs in Round 1 have -1800 odds, so do not expect to see any taken this year early.
- Tight End: We know Brock Bowers (Georgia) is going somewhere high in the 1st round, but no other tight end will. That gives us 6 offensive players.
- Wide Receiver: Under 6.5 wideouts is still favored with -220 odds, but the likelihood of 6 getting drafted is still high with the top trio of Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze and then the next tier of Brian Thomas Jr. (LSU) and the Texas duo of Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell. We’ll give them 6, bringing the total to 12 offensive players.
- Offensive Linemen: Over 9.5 is favored at -150 odds, and we can certainly back that up with 10 prospects with major 1st-round potential in Joe Alt, Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Taliese Fuaga, Troy Fautanu, J.C. Latham, Amarius Mims, Tyler Guyton, Jordan Morgan, Graham Barton, and Jackson Powers-Johnson.
With 5 quarterbacks, 1 tight end, 6 wide receivers, and 10 linemen, that would get us over with 22 offensive players in the 1st round.
The other good news is the positions teams are most likely to trade up for late in the 1st round are offensive positions like quarterback and offensive tackle. We also can’t discount a 7th wide receiver going in the 1st round like Georgia’s Ladd McConkey. That could cancel out if one of the linemen falls to the 2nd round and only 9 are drafted instead of 10.
But this is a class that favors offense at the top, and we expect to see those numbers play out with over 21 offensive players selected.
NFL Pick: Total Offensive Players Selected in Round 1 – Over 21 (-120) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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