The preseason is one of the best times of the year to take advantage of the NFL odds. Here’s what you need to know heading into Week 2.
Thank goodness it’s football season again. It’s nice to take it easy during the summer months, but the sports betting world revolves around the NFL – and the preseason just might be the best time of year to take advantage of the NFL odds.
At least it used to be. Shortening the preseason from four games to three (not including the Hall of Fame Game) has taken away some of the betting value. Not only is there one fewer game per team to exploit, but those teams have also been forced to change up their usual exhibition plans, at least to some extent.
You still have ample reason to put these games in your NFL picks. Head coaches are still the driving factor in preseason betting; you can look at their overall ATS records and still get a very good idea which ones are taking these games seriously, and which ones are punting.
Coaches May Be Unpredictable
What you can’t do as much anymore is break those records down week by week. Maybe the coaches will be relatively unchanged with their Week 1 approach compared to previous years, but Week 2 and beyond is pretty much up for grabs, until we get a larger sample size to work with.
With that in mind, we’re going to need a different approach for our Week 2 preseason NFL betting. Let’s turn our attention to three of the most important storylines coming out of Week 1, and see if we can use that information to exploit the marketplace before those “casual bettors” catch on.
1. Drew Lock Isn’t So Bad
The Seattle Seahawks took some flak in the press when they traded QB Russell Wilson (and his entourage) to the Denver Broncos for QB Drew Lock, TE Noah Fant, DE Shelby Harris and a package of picks. Not a good enough return, they said.
Then Seattle got even more side-eye when they decided not to draft Malik Willis, one of the top quarterbacks on this year’s board – more on him in a moment. That left the ‘Hawks with Lock and incumbent back-up Geno Smith battling for the top spot. Lock and Smith were ranked 34th and 35th out of 35 potential starters for 2022 by The Athletic. Woof.
Here’s the thing: Maybe Lock’s not so bad after all. He had his moments with the Broncos, both good and bad, and he almost led Seattle to a comeback win in Week 1 before getting strip-sacked in the dying minutes, allowing the Pittsburgh Steelers to rally and win 32-25 as 2-point home favorites.
We’re not saying Lock will replace what Wilson gave the Seahawks. What we are saying is that market expectations for Lock are probably too low.
He’ll be given a chance to thrive under head coach Pete Carroll – at least this Thursday night (8 PM EDT, ESPN) when Seattle host the Chicago Bears as 4.5-point home faves at Bovada Sportsbook (visit our Bovada Review).
2. Malik Willis Will Make Them Pay
At one point this spring, Willis was second overall on some of the mock 2022 drafts we were looking at here at the home office. Surely if the Detroit Lions didn’t reach for him at No. 2, the Seahawks would grab the former Liberty Flames (via Auburn) quarterback with the No. 9 pick they received in the Wilson trade.
They didn’t. Nor did Seattle take him at No. 40, 41, or 72. Willis slipped all the way to the third round, where the Tennessee Titans snapped him up at No. 86. And Willis sure looked like a steal last Thursday, even if the Titans lost 23-10 to the Baltimore Ravens (–3.5 at home).
Don’t let that result discourage you from considering Tennessee this Saturday when they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is a noted preseason moneymaker, improving his lifetime record to 38-15 ATS after beating the Titans. New Bucs head coach Todd Bowles is 8-9 ATS after last week’s 26-24 loss to the Miami Dolphins (+1 away).
The sharps definitely aren’t afraid. The early consensus reports at BMR show 100% enthusiastic consent for the Titans, who are laying 2.5 points with –120 vigorish at Heritage (visit our Heritage Sports Review) after opening at –2.5 (–110). Smoke ‘em if you got ‘em.
3. The Over Went 13-3 in Week 1
Make that 14-3 if you include the Hall of Fame Game. You always hear about how bettors over-react to what happens during Week 1 of the regular season, moving the NFL lines too far in the other direction for Week 2. But does that hold water in the preseason?
Maybe not. Last year, the Under – that darling of preseason NFL bets – crushed the Week 1 lines at 13-3, then stayed strong at 10-6 the following week.
Don’t be surprised if we get a similarly small market correction for this year’s Week 2 slate. Offense is king in the new NFL. We’re going to be treated to some crazy new schemes this year, so bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
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