MLB Pick: Aaron Judge Most Home Runs (+600) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Okay, so Aaron Judge didn’t sign with the San Francisco Giants after all. Maybe when all was said and done, Judge simply wanted to hit as many dingers as possible. He clubbed 62 of them last year playing for the New York Yankees – why mess that up?
Judge’s return to the Bronx leaves him a reasonably clear favorite at +600 at BetOnline to once again lead the majors in home runs. It’s a tough call, but we’re willing to put Judge in our preseason MLB picks at this price. The reason may surprise you.
Is Yankee Stadium a Hitters Park?
For some people. According to ESPN’s park factors for 2022, Yankee Stadium was pretty much even when it came to both runs scored (0.991) and home runs (1.015).
But if you happen to be 6-foot-7 and built to mash baseballs, you can take advantage of that short porch in the right field – even if you’re a right-handed hitter. Across the majors, Judge has sent 32.3% of his career homers over the fence in right; at Yankee Stadium, it’s 39%.
His prodigious talents might have gone to waste in San Francisco. Unless you’re on “the cream” or “the clear,” hitting home runs out of Oracle Park is no picnic – that stadium ranked No. 28 out of 30 last year with a 0.721 park factor.
Will Judge Hit 62 Again?
Probably not. The preseason ZiPS projections at FanGraphs have Judge leading the majors with a mere 46 home runs – but that’s six more than Houston’s Yordan Alvarez, the only other MLB Player projected to reach 40 this year.
There’s good reason to think Judge will exceed his projections. Let’s take a trip northwest from Yankee Stadium to Rogers Centre, where the Toronto Blue Jays are about to unveil their newly renovated outfield. Oh, look, they’ve moved right center in from 375 to 357 feet.
But wait, there’s more:
- Left center: 375’ to 366’
- Center: 400’ to 397’
It’s not all good news for hitters in Toronto. The walls down the lines used to be 10 feet tall; they are now 14-foot-4 in left and 12-foot-7 in right. And the walls down the alleys will get a similar boost as well. But at least the wall straight towards center field is dropping from 10 to eight feet.
The Blue Jays say their modeling suggests the new dimensions will be roughly average when it comes to run scoring. I’ve got a bridge in Mississauga to sell you if you believe that. Anyway, Judge gets to play here seven times in 2023, compared to a single four-game set for Alvarez and the Astros.
What Are the Odds?
Here’s a closer look at the top of the MLB home run odds board at BetOnline as we go to press, with each player’s ZiPS projection for homers included in parentheses:
- Aaron Judge: +600 (46)
- Pete Alonso: +900 (38)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: +900 (34)
- Mike Trout: +1000 (32)
- Yordan Alvarez: +1000 (40)
- Fernando Tatis Jr.: +1000 (31)
- Kyle Schwarber: +1200 (38)
- Shohei Ohtani: +1200 (36)
- Austin Riley: +1400 (35)
Within this nonet, you could make an argument that Schwarber has some betting value at twice the payout as Judge – although if you’re looking for a value pick, consider Atlanta’s Matt Olson (36 projected HR) at +2000.
But we’re confident that Judge will stay healthy enough to stay on top, and his upside is beyond question; bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
MLB Pick: Aaron Judge Most Home Runs (+600) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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