MLB Pick: Braves ML (-197) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
On Friday, there are 14 Major League Baseball betting matchups instead of the typical 15, as the Astros and Rockies enjoy an additional day off before their game in Mexico.
We are on a 7-2 run in this space, and we return with our three plays for the day that we feel hold the most betting value at the current MLB odds available on top-rated sportsbooks.
Our next best bet for Friday comes in Hot-lanta, where our proprietary model again sees value on a side when the Guardians visit the Braves. For more MLB picks including Diamondbacks vs. Mariners and Dodgers vs. Blue Jays, visit our YouTube channel.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves
Friday, April 26, 2024 – 07:20 PM ET at Truist Park
We do not bet huge favorites very often, but we are doing so Friday with Chris Sale and the Braves when they host Logan Allen and the Guardians.
Positive Signs for Sale
The Braves own the best record in baseball at 17-6. That is not surprising for a team whose offense leads the majors in wRC+ at 128 and whose pitching staff ranks fifth in xFIP at 3.56. And the newcomer Sale has contributed to that pitching success after battling injuries throughout his career.
Chris has always been a very good pitcher when he has been able to make it to the mound. Well, he is currently healthy, and we are not concerned about his 4.38 ERA as it is accompanied by an excellent 2.92 xFIP. Perhaps most importantly, his current average velocity of 95.1 MPH is at its highest points since 2018, helping lead to a nice strikeout rate of 9.85/9.
Weak Rotation Link
To be fair, the Guardians have the best record in the American League with one more win (but a slightly lower winning percentage) than the Braves at 18-7. However, we are not sure the catalyst for that success is sustainable, with Cleveland going from one of the worst offenses in baseball in 2023 to currently ranking fifth in wRC+ at 113. Furthermore, they have a weak link in the rotation on the hill.
Allen has somehow gone 3-0 in five starts despite a 5.06 ERA, 4.23 xFIP and a poor K/BB ratio of 7.09/3.04 per nine innings. And not only has Logan been pitching to contact, but it has been mostly hard with a soft/hard contact ratio of 10.8% / 30.1%. We do not expect his luck to continue here vs. the best offense in baseball as of now.
The Pick
So, with the Braves record being the more legitimate of these frontrunners in our minds and with Sale being the superior starter, bet the Braves to make a statement in the series opener.
Predicted Score: Braves 6 – Guardians 3
MLB Pick: Braves ML (-197) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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