MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (+105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Friday’s lineup showcases 14 Major League Baseball betting matchups, diverging from the typical tally of 15, as the Astros and Rockies relish an additional day off before their game in Mexico.
We’re back with our three plays for the day after achieving a 7-2 streak. These picks are selected based on what we believe offers the highest betting value, considering the current MLB odds offered by top-rated sportsbooks.
We head to the Emerald City in the Great Northwest for our final value bet of the evening, as our model likes a total in the matchup between the Diamondbacks and Mariners.
Check out our YouTube channel for additional MLB picks including Guardians vs. Braves and Dodgers vs. Blue Jays.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, April 26, 2024 – 09:40 PM ET at T-Mobile Park
We expect a higher-scoring affair than this low posted total indicates, so we are betting the Over when Emerson Hancock and the Mariners host Zac Gallen and the Diamondbacks.
ERA Almost as High as Game Total
It is not very often in a game with a posted total of 7.5 that you have a starter with an ERA almost that high. Yet here we are with Hancock coming in with a 6.10 ERA through four starts. Granted, his xFIP is much better at 4.15, but even with that, we do not consider him to be anything special.
Emerson entered the Major Leagues last season, and he has not been much of a strikeout pitcher so far with a rate of 5.79/9 through 32.2 big-league innings. Furthermore, he has combined that with a low 35.7% groundball rate, which is dangerous for a contact guy.
Thus, his whopping home run rate allowed this year of 1.74/9 innings does not seem fluky for a fly-ball contact pitcher allowing a 28.6% hard-contact rate, up from 17.5% his rookie year. He faces an Arizona offense ranked fifth in baseball in OPS at .744.
Shaky Road Splits
As for Gallen, we always thought he was underrated before his breakthrough season of last year. He received Cy Young Award consideration before losing out to Blake Snell after going 17-9 with a 3.47 ERA, 3.49 xFIP and a solid K/BB ratio of 9.43/2.01 per nine innings. However, one glitch for Zac was his home/away splits.
You see, Gallen had a 4.42 ERA and 4.26 xFIP on the road last season compared to a 2.47 ERA and 2.66 xFIP at home. Well, he is showing similar signs this year in the early going with a 7.20 ERA through two road starts and a spiffy 0.53 ERA in three home starts. So, while he remains the superior pitcher here, we do not expect Gallen to get away totally unscathed.
The Pick
So, with Hancock simply not being very good and Gallen expected to give up some runs, let’s go Over this very low total in Seattle.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 6 – Mariners 4
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (+105) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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