MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (+106) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We have 14 Major League Baseball betting matchups on Friday instead of the usual 15, as the Astros and Rockies get an extra day off before playing in Mexico.
We are on a 7-2 run in this space, and we return with our three plays for the day that we feel hold the most betting value at the current MLB odds available on top-rated sportsbooks.
These picks are mostly based on our proprietary model. We have three night-plays, and for our first one, the model likes a side in the Dodgers vs. Blue Jays matchup.
Check out our YouTube channel for more MLB picks, including Diamondbacks vs. Mariners and Guardians vs. Braves matchups.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Friday, April 26, 2024 – 07:07 PM ET at Rogers Centre
We think that a mild upset is afoot and are thus betting on Chris Bassitt and the underdog Blue Jays at home north of the border against Gavin Stone and the Dodgers.
Travelled with No Day Off
The Dodgers traveled from Washington after a late afternoon game yesterday with no day off, so they can be excused if they get off to a sleepy start tonight. However, more importantly, they have a shaky Stone on the mound who enters with a 6.00 ERA and 4.56 xFIP through four starts.
Gavin has totaled only 18 innings in those four starts due to wildness elevating his pitch counts, as he has a hideous walk rate of 5.00/9.
When he is not walking people, he is allowing a hard contact rate in the air, with a hard-contact rate of 31.0% and a professional low (including minors) groundball rate of 42.1%. That does not sound conducive to success vs. a Toronto offense with an excellent wRC+ of 127 against righties at home.
Better Starter at Home?
This is a rare case where we are seemingly getting the better pitcher as an underdog at home, as this line seems a bit skewed by the Dodgers supposing to be dominant this year.
Well, they have not been (yet) at 15-11 overall, and they are going up against a pitcher in Bassitt with a 3.90 ERA that lines up closely enough with his 4.28 xFIP.
We feel that Chris is often underrated for a pitcher who posted an ERA below 4.00 each of the last six seasons and is currently at that same level for a seventh straight year.
Moreover, Bassitt’s fastball velocity is up to 93.5 MPH from 92.5 last year, and that velocity is up also on his two main secondary pitchers, the sinker and slider.
The Pick
This looks like a line based more on the reputations of these teams entering this season than actual performance. We will gladly bet the Blue Jays as small home underdogs with the better pitcher here.
Predicted Score: Blue Jays 5 – Dodgers 4
MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (+106) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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