Don’t get left behind; here are the most important betting trends and missing personnel to consider for your Wild Card NFL picks.
Those who don’t learn from history are doomed to make bad NFL picks. Not every betting trend will give you useful information; for example, the quarterback with the higher uniform number won each of last year’s Wild Card games. But if you look at the right trends, you can make better choices with your hard-earned money.
Even more important: Keeping track of which players are shuffling in and out of the lineup. There’s a lot of roster churn in this violent league, so you’d better keep up if you want to properly evaluate your betting options.
Make sure to check out the best US Betting Sites available in order to make your bets.
Let’s take a look at five of the most important trends and injuries to know before you open up that wallet and/or purse for Wild Card Weekend:
These Games Tend to Go Under
Or at least most of them have in recent years. If our count is correct, the Under is 50-30 in Wild Card games dating back to 2004 inclusive, and 16-8 in the past four years.
This makes sense. One of the first principles of old-school handicapping is that public bettors prefer the Over, and there are a lot more of those bettors in the market now that the playoffs have arrived. We’re here to take their money by betting the other side, like nature intended.
Tua Is Out
Another great way to score some betting value is by supporting quarterbacks who are undervalued in the marketplace – quarterbacks like Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa. Alas, Tagovailoa has yet to be cleared from concussion protocol and won’t play this Sunday (1:00 PM EST, CBS) when the No. 7 Dolphins visit the No. 2 Buffalo Bills.
There are times when the backup is undervalued, too. Miami very quickly moved from +9 to +12 on the NFL odds board at Bookmaker after the Tagovailoa news came down; they’re 13-point puppies at press time. But it’s a big step down from Tagovailoa to third-stringer Skylar Thompson, enough to make the Bills worth tasting some of that chalk.
Underdogs FTW
That’s “For The Win,” of course (shout out to my main man Nick Wealthall). Underdogs are 16-8 ATS in Wild Card action since 2018 inclusive, although they did crap out at 1-5 ATS last year. Can’t win ‘em all.
The same betting logic we stated for the Under applies here. Casual fans love betting on favorites, and those favorites usually get their profiles puffed up way too big by the lamestream media. The No. 3 Cincinnati Bengals, for example, are way too hyped for Sunday’s first-round tilt (8:15 PM EST, NBC) with the No. 6 Baltimore Ravens, who have moved from +7 to +8.5 since the opening line. Speaking of which…
Lamar Still Uncertain
Before auto-betting those Ravens, keep in mind that QB Lamar Jackson (knee) is on the bad side of questionable for Wild Card Weekend after not practicing Wednesday. Back-up Tyler Huntley (shoulder/wrist) is also questionable; he didn’t throw any passes during the open portion of practice.
Is third-stringer Anthony Brown in the same boat as the aforementioned Thompson? He’s even worse, according to the passing DVOA stats at Football Outsiders, although that’s over a very small sample size of 49 pass attempts – 44 of those in Baltimore’s 27-16 loss to Cincinnati (–11 at home) in their regular-season finale.
First Start Jitters
Now we get to yoke these trends and injuries together: Since the 2002 format change, quarterbacks are 18-36 SU and 16-37-1 ATS making their first playoff start, including 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS last year.
This weekend will be the postseason debuts for both Thompson and Brown should they start. Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith has also never been to the playoffs, although as a veteran, maybe he should get a pass for Saturday’s game (4:30 PM EST, FOX) between No. 7 Seattle and the No. 2 San Francisco 49ers – especially with third-string QB Brock Purdy on his maiden playoff voyage for San Fran.
But wait, there’s more: Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert will both make their first playoff starts this Saturday (8:15 PM EST, NBC) when the No. 4 Jacksonville Jaguars host the No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers. As with Smith and Purdy, they’ll cancel each other out as far as this trend is concerned, but don’t be surprised if both gentlemen have some butterflies heading into this battle.
We haven’t forgotten about you, Daniel Jones. The No. 6 New York Giants might normally be an easy NFL pick this Sunday (4:30 PM EST, FOX) against the overrated No. 3 Minnesota Vikings, but history is not on Jones’s side.
Bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
Remember, fans from the Empire State who are looking to make a wager on games this weekend should be sure to check out our top-rated NY betting sites.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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