An unexpected turn of events at the end of the NFL’s regular season led to the Chicago Bears (3-14) earning the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft instead of the Houston Texans (3-13-1). Call it Lovie Smith’s last gift to Chicago as the Houston head coach was fired after winning in Week 18 on a late two-point conversion.
With a 1-12-1 start and a loss to the Bears in Week 3, it sure seemed like Houston was destined for the No. 1 pick and perhaps a new quarterback and coach in 2023. But by winning two of their last three games in the division, the Texans lost the top pick to the Bears, who ended Matt Eberflus’ first year on a 10-game losing streak.
This puts the Bears in a very difficult and interesting position. When you draft a quarterback like Justin Fields with the No. 11 pick in 2021, you do not expect to be 3-14 and having a No. 1 pick after his second season. That is problematic, and it will have the Bears in the spotlight for months with their looming decision that can go many ways:
- Do the Bears draft a quarterback replacement for Fields with the No. 1 pick and trade Fields for a good return?
- Do the Bears trade down, still take a quarterback, and use him to push Fields like the Chargers once did with Drew Brees and Philip Rivers?
- Do the Bears commit to Fields and use the No. 1 pick on another franchise player?
- Do the Bears trade the No. 1 pick for a king’s ransom and build up a better team for Fields, who can use more receivers and a better defense after Chicago finished No. 32 in points allowed?
Many of the top-rated sportsbooks have Alabama quarterback Bryce Young (-125) as the NFL odds favorite to be drafted first overall in 2023. But what should the Bears do? We look at a few of their options.
Should the Bears Move on from Justin Fields?
We know the Bears are keeping their general manager and main coaching staff, so the first domino is what to do with Fields.
We recently studied his first 25 games in the NFL before Week 16, and the results were not the most encouraging. Fields is clearly one of the most elite runners at the quarterback position in NFL history after rushing for 1,143 yards this season.
Fields has the regular-season record with 178 rushing yards in a game. He is the first quarterback to rush for 140 yards in back-to-back games. He already has more 50-yard touchdown runs (3) than any quarterback in NFL history.
All that is well and good for highlights but passing still wins games in the NFL. The passing has not been there for Fields, so neither have the wins.
Fields’ Style Doesn’t Win for Chicago
In fact, through 27 games and 25 starts, the Bears are 6-21 when Fields plays and 5-20 (.200) when he starts. Fields is just the ninth quarterback since the 1970 merger to lose at least 20 of his first 25 starts:
- Justin Fields (5-20): Future to be determined
- Gary Huff (5-20): Bust in Chicago (1973 second-round pick)
- Dan Pastorini (5-20): Won a few playoff games as a caretaker quarterback
- Blaine Gabbert (5-20): Bust in Jacksonville (2011 first-round pick)
- Trevor Lawrence (5-20): Turned it around in second half of second year
- Dan Fouts (4-20-1): Hall of Famer after very slow start
- Dennis Shaw (4-20-1): Bust in Buffalo (1970 second-round pick)
- David Klingler (4-20): Bust who never got a 25th start
- Steve DeBerg (3-22): Long career with minimal success
This is not an encouraging list for the future. Fouts eventually turned it on after the league changed passing rules to open things up and he got Don Coryell to coach him, but there are four clear busts, a caretaker in Pastorini, and a long-time backup in DeBerg.
The presence of Trevor Lawrence is not exactly positive for Fields since they went in the same draft class, and he is already turning things around after the Jaguars spent money on receivers people didn’t think that highly of in Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram. But he is making it work and is in the playoffs.
The free-agent class for wide receivers does not look impressive this year either, so the Bears may have a lot of cap space, but no one great to spend it on. Is Fields going to make DJ Chark, Allen Lazard, or Sterling Shepard look better? Doubtful. The Bears already gave up what became the 32nd pick to complete two balls a game to Chase Claypool from Pittsburgh.
But back to Lawrence, he also led his team back to win several high-scoring games this year. Fields is 1-11 in fourth-quarter comeback opportunities, the worst record among active starters. We already saw Kenny Pickett go down the field and throw a game-winning touchdown pass in back-to-back weeks against the Raiders and Ravens this year. What is Fields’ excuse?
Fields only needed to get a field goal in three straight games against the Dolphins, Lions, and Falcons, and he couldn’t even get the kicker in range once. Those high-scoring losses were the high point of Chicago’s season too because the Bears did not score more than 20 points in any of their last six games.
Fields Did Not Have a Second-Year Breakout Season
In a down year for quarterback play in the NFL, Fields finished No. 17 in QBR, a stat that excessively loves quarterback rushing too. He ranked 30th in passing expected points added at ESPN. Fields was dead last (34th) in DYAR and DVOA among passers at Football Outsiders, signifying he was the least-valuable passer in the league this year.
Advanced stats do not like Fields because he takes sacks on 13.4% of his passes, which would be the worst rate in NFL history for a career. Patrick Mahomes (3.89%) and Tom Brady (4.48%) are the best active quarterbacks in sack rate as they are much better at getting rid of the ball albeit in different ways. Fields is on a short list of quarterbacks who average over 3.0 seconds before throwing or getting sacked, which is usually too long in this league.
While there is no consensus that the Chicago offensive line is great or terrible, it still ranks No. 2 in pass block win rate according to ESPN’s research. The line is also No. 5 in run blocking, so how bad can it be?
Where Is the Passing Game?
It just seems like when it comes to anything outside of running, Fields is near the bottom of the league and historically near the bottom of all quarterbacks since the merger through 25 starts.
Josh Allen has really ruined quarterback analysis by turning things around so drastically in Year 3, but even he was further along as a passer after the 2019 season than what we have seen with Fields. Can you honestly say adding Stefon Diggs would change that much for Fields?
In his last game of 2022 against Detroit, Fields produced 30 net passing yards on 28 passing plays. You may have missed that over the highlight of his 60-yard run in a game he lost 41-10, but that is abysmal production in the passing game.
So, when you ask should the Bears move on from Fields if they can find a better player in this draft? Absolutely. But the question is does that player exist in this draft field?
Quarterbacks the Bears Can Draft to Replace Fields
Full disclosure: I barely watch college football anymore. I never saw a college game from Patrick Mahomes, but in 2017 I looked at Mahomes’ statistics for about 30 minutes and accurately predicted he would be an upgrade over Alex Smith and possibly a great player for Andy Reid if he had a defense that wasn’t giving up 40 points in the NFL. That one worked out okay.
I also knew about Deshaun Watson after watching a few games in college, and he seemed like the real deal (on the field, of course). So, color me surprised when the Bears took Mitch Trubisky No. 2 in the 2017 draft while Mahomes and Watson did not go until the 10th and 12th picks.
I do not revisit that draft to make fun of Bears fans. I bring it up because it’s a great lesson in how there are metrics you can look at to get a feel for how a college quarterback will translate to the NFL, but it is certainly far from a proven science. Plenty of NFL teams botch these picks often enough to show there is no one great way to scout these players.
The fact that I predicted Mahomes and Watson would be better than Trubisky and the Bears didn’t is a problem, but thankfully there is a new brain trust in Chicago. Their task is a difficult one as they will have to look at the quarterbacks in this year’s draft.
A top three seems to be emerging in early January, but it is always subject to change of course.
Bryce Young (Alabama)
The favorite to go No. 1, Young has continued the tradition of stellar production under Nick Saban’s loaded team. He has thrown 80 touchdowns to 12 interceptions in two years as a starter, though his numbers did not quite peak as high as Mac Jones did in that ridiculous 2020 season that led him to a first-round pick by New England.
But Young does remind me of the Deshaun Watson we saw (on the field) in Houston, which is why the Texans should be interested in getting him maybe more than the Bears will be.
Again, like most NFL decision makers, I have no idea if Young is going to be a great pro. He looks a little on the small side, but I do like his pass-first mentality and how he uses his mobility to stay alive and make throws. He seems much more like a Watson or Russell Wilson than a Fields and Lamar Jackson, and that would be a good change for the Bears.
C.J. Stroud (Ohio State)
Like Alabama, Ohio State is loaded with talent to make their quarterbacks look better than they are statistically. But Ohio State has a bad stigma of not producing NFL-caliber quarterbacks, so replacing Fields with his Ohio State replacement is not an attractive option even if Stroud had better college statistics and may be a better pure passer.
The locker room dynamic would also be really weird if they kept Fields while easing Stroud into the team. This just seems unlikely to happen. Spread the risk out and let another team try to make an Ohio State quarterback work in the NFL. Don’t double-dip on them.
Will Levis (Kentucky)
I am not sure how Kentucky’s Will Levis is +1000 to be the No. 1 pick, but the NFL draft once had people arguing Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton in 2011. These things happen.
But Levis was certainly not as productive as Young and Stroud. Levis threw 43 touchdowns in two seasons at Kentucky. Stroud threw 44 and 41 touchdowns in his two seasons at Ohio State. Young had 47 touchdown passes in 2021 when he won the Heisman.
This feels more like a fringe top-10 pick that a desperate team like the Carolina Panthers may go for. But we’ll see how his combine, workouts, and interviews go. Levis just doesn’t seem like the kind of quarterback you’d pull the plug on Fields for. The high ceiling you get with Young and Stroud likely is not here.
Is There a Non-Quarterback Option at No. 1?
Complicating things for the Bears is the lack of a non-quarterback option to go first overall in this draft that would dramatically improve the team in 2023 or help Fields find his breakout in passing.
Unless you are getting the second coming of Anthony Munoz or Aaron Donald, you can probably skip any linemen on either side of the ball with the top pick.
The favorite to go No. 1 who is not a quarterback is Will Anderson, the Alabama edge rusher who has drawn comparisons to Von Miller. That would be great if he can play like Miller, but even Von was fortunate to have Peyton Manning join his team in his second season with Denver (2012) to really become a relevant force. That type of player will not move the needle in Chicago.
There also does not appear to be a Calvin Johnson-type prospect at wide receiver in this draft class. The Bears should almost certainly use a first-round pick on a wide receiver this year, but that Megatron or Julio Jones or Ja’Marr Chase type of game-changer is probably not there.
No one wants to see the Bears use the top pick on a TCU wideout (Quentin Johnston) who just lost 65-7 to Georgia in the title game. It would probably still be a better use of a high pick than 2015 first-round bust Kevin White, but Johnston is a player the Bears should trade down for. Not No. 1 pick material. It has to be a quarterback.
Conclusion: Chicago Should Strongly Consider Drafting a Quarterback
At the end of the day, my decision for the Bears would be to sit on this No. 1 pick for as long as possible, if not until there is a minute left on the clock on draft night. Wait for the best offer possible to come in and do not jump at anything early.
In the meantime, I would thoroughly interview and study the top quarterbacks (Young, Stroud, and Levis) in this draft. Fields has not been successful enough after two years nor is he too much of a financial burden to stay committed to him for 2023.
If the Bears feel one of these quarterbacks can take them the places they want to go, then they should draft him No. 1 overall and move on from Fields much in the way the Cardinals moved on from Josh Rosen to Kyler Murray in 2019.
However, this draft does not seem likely to produce a Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck type of prospect, so it is hard to say this is a slam dunk to go with Young or whoever emerges as the favorite quarterback. In hindsight, should Arizona have passed on Murray to take someone like Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert in 2020? Absolutely, but hindsight is often 20/20.
If the Bears are not enamored with the quarterbacks, then trade the pick and add as much talent as you can this year. Maybe by 2024, you’ll be in a position to draft Caleb Williams (USC), or maybe Fields will follow the rare Josh Allen trajectory of breaking out in Year 3.
What If They Keep Fields?
If the Bears keep Fields and decide to load up elsewhere, they better realize he cannot keep doing what he did this year. It does not win games in the NFL unless your goal is to win 13-10 every week. Even then, you need a quarterback who can put together a late drive, and he has not been that guy yet either.
Until proven otherwise, Fields is The Running Man, and the Bears need more of a thrower if they are ever going to solve the quarterback position. Maybe that is Bryce Young, but we’ll have to see how the process shakes out.
If Brock Purdy wins a Super Bowl for the 49ers, then that could throw the whole evaluation process into shambles around the league. What was the point of trading up for Trey Lance if Mr. Irrelevant can throw multiple touchdowns every week and win a championship?
But let’s not overlook that the Bears have no business being in this position of the No. 1 pick if Fields was progressing the way he should by now.
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