NFL Pick: Jalen Carter to the Bears (+400) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Chicago Bears are on the clock as they “earned” the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft – although whether they actually pick there is up for major debate.
We break down the odds for which player might go first via BetOnline, one of BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks.
Let’s take a closer the NFL odds to find the values we need to keep cashing our NFL picks!
2023 NFL Draft No. 1 Overall Pick
- NFL Draft Starts: Thursday, April 27, 2023 – 08:00 PM EST at Kansas Union Station Kansas City
For most of the 2022 NFL regular season, the Houston Texans were in the driver’s seat to finish with the league’s worst record and pick first overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. That’s a spot Houston had chosen from three times previously.
Here’s who they chose:
- 2002: Fresno State quarterback David Carr (mega-bust)
- 2006: North Carolina defensive end Mario Williams (four-time Pro Bowler)
- 2014: South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney (three-time Pro Bowler but shouldn’t have gone first in retrospect; Aaron Donald should have)
However, the Texans played very well down the stretch, culminating in a 32-31 comeback win at Indianapolis in Week 18. Davis Mills threw a 28-yard TD pass to Jordan Akins with 50 seconds to go, and Coach Lovie Smith went for the two-point try and the win. It was good.
Smith was promptly fired the next day. Some believe that Texans ownership did it in part because it was so livid that it cost the Texans the top pick because when the Bears lost that day, they earned it instead.
Bears Not Used to Picking First
While the storied Bears franchise has played in just two Super Bowls and won it once, they are never bad enough to pick first overall.
Chicago last did way back in 1947, taking Oklahoma A&M halfback Bob Fenimore. Great college player but an NFL bust in part due to injuries.
The best possible scenario for a bad NFL team is to already have your franchise quarterback in place and pick first overall because franchise quarterbacks are obviously the most valuable commodity in all of professional sports and you can trade the top pick.
Teams don’t give up a ton of draft picks to move up and select an offensive tackle or a pass rusher. They do it for a quarterback like the Rams did in the 2016 draft to select Jared Goff.
That’s the last time a team traded out of No. 1. Tennessee held it originally and got the No. 15 pick that year from the Rams along with two second-round picks and a third-round pick in 2016, as well as first- and third-round picks for 2017. Tennessee sent 2016 fourth- and sixth-round picks to Los Angeles along with the No. 1.
Here are the BetOnline odds to be picked first overall:
- Alabama QB Bryce Young (-125)
- Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud (+275)
- Georgia Defensive Tackle Jalen Carter (+400)
- Kentucky QB Will Levis (+700 )
- Alabama Linebacker Will Anderson (+850)
Chicago is NOT taking a quarterback as it has its future there in Justin Fields. He still has some work to do as a passer but had one of the greatest rushing seasons for a QB in league history, totaling 1,143 rushing yards (second-most for a QB ever) in 15 games.
The Bears need massive defensive help as they traded away their two best defenders during the season in Robert Quinn and Khalil Mack and finished last in scoring defense (27.2 ppg), 29th in total defense (375.9 ypg), and last in sacks (20).
Anderson is a pure pass-rusher who won the Nagurski Trophy twice at Alabama, only the second player in the award’s history to take home the honors twice.
His 34.5 career sacks were second all-time at the school behind the late, great Hall of Famer Derrick Thomas – a fabulous player in the NFL. If the Bears knew Anderson would become Thomas, he’d be the choice.
UGA’s Carter, meanwhile, would clog rushing lanes and absorb double-teams, leading to more sack opportunities for defensive ends and outside linebackers (such as Anderson).
Carter isn’t going to get a ton of sacks himself with a total of three this past season for the national champion Dawgs and does have a moderate injury history. Some have compared him to former Bucs Hall of Famer Warren Sapp.
It’s very possible that the Bears trade the top pick to a QB-needy team such as Houston (picks second), Indianapolis (fourth), Seattle (fifth), or Las Vegas (seventh) – if the Raiders don’t sign Tom Brady, and they are the favored team at BetOnline to be Brady’s next team.
The Pick
No one player is getting the Bears to playoff contention in 2023. They have a LOT of holes to fill and adding multiple draft picks might be the smart move.
As of today, though, the best betting value is on Carter because there are other good pass-rushers Chicago can select in the draft.
A dominating “three technique” such as Carter is much harder to find.
Make sure to check out the best US Betting Sites available in order to make your bets.
NFL Pick: Jalen Carter to the Bears (+400) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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