NCAAF Pick: Under 9½ Wins (+115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Texas will depart the Big 12 for the SEC following this season, giving the Longhorns one more time to add to its three Big 12 conference titles.
The prestige of the SEC, widely considered the top conference in college football, has already started to rub off on the Longhorns. The over/under cutoff for wins for Texas this season is 9.5, according to the top offshore sportsbooks.
By way of comparison, Texas has topped that win total exactly once since 2010, and that year, 2018, took a bowl win to reach double digits.
Key Facts
- Texas has won 10 games in a season one time since 2010.
- All five Longhorn losses last year were by a touchdown or less.
- 15 starters are back for the Longhorns.
One last trip through the Big 12
The Horns are coming off an 8-5 year, but it could have been so much better. Starting with a heartbreaking one-point loss to Alabama in week two, all five of Texas’ losses were by a margin of a touchdown or less.
Texas has plenty of reason for optimism this year. The Longhorns return 15 starters from last season.
Offense
Running back Bijan Robinson got drafted by the NFL, going in the first round, but other than that. Texas returns plenty of talent on offense, including nine starters.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers returns as starter, but he’s not a sure thing to finish the season in that spot, especially with Arch Manning, nephew of Peyton and Eli, on the roster as a high-profile freshman. Maalik Murphy could also step into the job.
Under Center
Whoever is throwing passes will have an embarrassment of riches for targets. Texas boasts one of the best receiving corps in the country, led by Xavier Worthy, Jordan Whittingham and tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders, who were Texas’ top three receivers last year, combining for 164 catches, over 2,000 yards and 15 touchdowns. They also add Adonai Mitchell, who transferred from Georgia, three true freshmen who could contribute and Isaiah Neyor, who returns from an injury that cost him all of last year.
Texas also returns all five starters on the line, which should help the ground game production, as a number of career backups will try to replace Robinson. They’ll be pushed by the top running back recruit in the nation in CJ Baxter and Savion Red, who changed positions from receiver.
Defense
Texas gave up 27 points or more in five games last year, but the Longhorns D wasn’t the prototypical Big 12 shootout producing defense we’ve often seen. The Horns were second in the conference in scoring and total defense, leading the country in quarterback pressures.
The line is stout in the middle with Byron Murphy II and T’Vondre Sweat. Team sack leader Barryn Sorrell returns at one end spot.
Leading tackler Jaylan Ford returns to lead a strong linebacker unit. Texas also has an elite recruit joining that group in freshman Anthony Hill.
The secondary is deep and experienced with corner Ryan Watts and safeties Jerrin Thompson and Jahdae Barron—all among the team’s top seven tacklers—returning. They add cornerback Gavin Holmes from Wake Forest and safety Jalen Catalon from Arkansas.
2023 Schedule
Texas should be good and contend for the Big 12 regular season title, but their schedule is not conducive to a 10-win regular season. The Longhorns return their near upset of Alabama in Austin last year by traveling to Bryant-Denny to face the Tide in a rematch in Week 2. The Longhorns are currently getting 6½ points according to the latest NCAAF odds.
The rest of their non-conference slate—Rice (Week 1) and Wyoming (Week 3) at home—is soft. With the Big 12 newly expanded, Texas made out well with the teams it avoids on the conference schedule—Oklahoma State, West Virginia and newcomers Cincinnati and UCF.
The conference slate has a tough start with a trip to Baylor (Week 4), followed by an improving Kansas team (Week 5) and the Red River Showdown against Oklahoma (Week 6). A week off is followed by a trip to Houston and games against BYU and Kansas State (Week 10) before heading to TCU. That gives Texas 10 straight bowl opponents to start the season and an eleventh, Texas Tech, in the finale of Week 13.
The Pick
The Longhorns should be much better, but with a brutal schedule, their record may not indicate their level of improvement. They should be favored in most games outside of Alabama, but they’ll have more than one pothole in navigating the schedule.
Put them at nine wins on the season for your NCAAF picks.
NCAAF Pick: Under 9½ Wins (+115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product
Calculators
