Top MLB Pick of the Day
Twins vs. Yankees: Yankees ML (-150) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Picks Summary
- Twins vs. Yankees: Yankees ML (-150)
- Tigers vs. Blue Jays: Blue Jays -1.5 (-115)
- Brewers vs. Padres: Over 8.5 (-120)
It’s a smaller slate in the MLB tonight, but we’ve still got plenty of exciting action. I’ve got three MLB picks that I’ll be firing on tonight.
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees
Thursday, April 13, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
How Good Is Jhony Brito?
Jhony Brito will take the mound for his third start of the season. Brito has a .90 ERA through two starts this season. He’s thrown 10 innings and has just eight strikeouts but has only walked three in both games combined.
Brito has a 4.09 xFIP through those two games. He’s also struck out 21.6% of batters while getting plenty of ground balls. Opponents also struggle to hit line drives against Brito to begin the year.
He’ll take on a Twins lineup with a .046 ISO and wOBA of .257 against righties. This projected lineup has also struck out 24.3% of the time.
It’s also unclear if Carlos Correa will be back in the lineup tonight. He’s been out with an injury.
Can Joe Ryan Outduel Brito?
Meanwhile, Joe Ryan’s on the mound for the Twins. Ryan has earned two wins this season and a 3.75 ERA with 16 strikeouts. His xFIP is at 3.60 this season, and he’s struck out 33.3% of batters faced.
Ryan isn’t going to earn a high rate of grounders and will allow a solid amount of line drives, especially against this Yankees lineup that has hit a .244 ISO with a wOBA of .370 against righties to begin the year.
New York hasn’t hit many line drives against righties this season, but they’ve got more potential in the lineup.
The Pick
Following the odds at New York betting sites, I’ll back the Yankees to edge out the Twins at home.
MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-150) at BetOnline
Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Thursday, April 13, 2023 – 07:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre
Will Spencer Turnbull Turn It Around?
Spencer Turnbull has struggled to begin 2023. He’s got an 8.00 xFIP with 10% strikeouts and 12.5% walks. He’s still earning a solid amount of ground balls and hasn’t given up a ton of line drives. but he’s got an ERA of 13.50 and continues to walk more batters than strike out.
Lefties are hitting a .540 wOBA and ISO of .318 against Turnbull this season. Meanwhile, righties aren’t far behind, hitting a .408 wOBa and ISO of .182.
Against righties, the Blue Jays’ projected lineup has hit a .206 ISO and wOBA of .365. Toronto has a lethal lineup between Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Daulton Varsho, and Matt Chapman, who have all begun the season red-hot against righties.
Is Chris Bassitt Being Rushed?
Toronto picked up Chris Bassitt in the off-season. He’s had a solid career with the Athletics and Mets and moved on to Toronto. So far, he’s got a 10.61 ERA and has not looked good.
Bassitt has a 6.89 xFIP with just 11.1% of strikeouts and 11.1% of walks. His ground ball rate is low, and his line drive rate is high, but he’s been fine against righties. It’s the lefties that are barking against him.
He’s allowed a .680 wOBA and ISO of .813 to his first 17 lefties faced this season. The Tigers will have five lefties in the lineup, but only Kerry Carpenter even has a wOBA that is respectable against righties to begin the year.
The Pick
I like Bassitt to turn the corner tonight. The Tigers don’t have a killer lineup by any stretch of the imagination.
I’ll take the Blue Jays -1.5.
MLB Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (-115) at BetOnline
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres
Thursday, April 13, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
Who Will Start for Milwaukee?
At this time, we don’t know the confirmed starter for the Brewers, but it’s likely going to be Bryse Wilson. The Brewers used Janson Junk yesterday and pushed back Eric Lauer to Saturday. So it’s probably Wilson.
Wilson has thrown against 23 batters this season. He’s struck out 26.1% of them but also has walked 13% of batters. The right-hander has also allowed a 33.3% line drive rate and likely won’t pitch beyond five innings (if he even gets there).
Juan Soto and Xander Bogaerts have been dominant against righties to begin the year, Soto has a .304 ISO, while Boagaerts has a .462 ISO. This team is also working on walks at 14.2%. The Padres will have runners on base throughout Wilson’s start.
Nick Martinez Starts for the Padres
On the other hand, Nick Martinez will get the start for the Padres. He’s holding a 5.42 xFIP with 17.3% of strikeouts and 13.5% of walks, but he’s been better with balls in play. Teams have hit 55.6% of ground balls and 16.7% of line drives.
Still, he’s given up a .176 ISO to lefties, and the Brewers have five lefties that can do damage, including Rowdy Tellez and Garrett Mitchell, who both have high ISO numbers against righties.
The Pick
Let’s take the Over 8.5 as established at the MLB odds.
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-120) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
