Service Plays - Wednesday 8/25/21

Jackofhearts

Moderator
Tokyo Brandon

(304161) Yokohama Baystars at (304162) Hanshin Tigers
Game: (304161) Yokohama Baystars at (304162) Hanshin Tigers
Date/Time: Aug 25 2021 5:00 AM EDT
Play Rating: A%
Play: 1H Hanshin Tigers -130
The Hanshin Tigers have the SP and lineup advantages here but the bullpen is trash. Rookie SP Ito has been gold and is 3-0 with a 1.20 ERA vs Yokohama which his counterpart, Ohnuki has been good but not as good. Yokohama has a pretty good lineup as well so make this a small 1% play on the Hanshin Tigers 1st 5 money line.

Game: (304167) Chunichi Dragons at (304168) Yakult Swallows
Date/Time: Aug 25 2021 5:00 AM EDT
Play Rating: D%
Play: 1H Yakult Swallows -0.5 (-110)
Yakult is the best 1st 5 hitting team in the league and they have crushed Chunichi SP Matsuba game after game. Yakult SP Ishikawa is as old as dirt but he has a 0.80 WHIP and has held Chunichi in his two starts against them good enough for a 1.64 ERA. Chuncihi is also the worst-hitting team in the league. Take Yakult on the 1st 5 innings run line for anything -130 or better. Right now it is at -110 at Pinnacle.

(304167) Chunichi Dragons at (304168) Yakult Swallows
Game: (304167) Chunichi Dragons at (304168) Yakult Swallows
Date/Time: Aug 25 2021 5:00 AM EDT
Play Rating: A%
Play: Total Under 8.5 (-105)
My numbers have this game at 7.4. These teams together are 12-3 to the under this season. Take the Under 8.5.
 

Jackofhearts

Moderator
Stephen Oh

DETROIT @ ST. LOUIS | 08/25 | 1:15 PM EDT
UNDER 9
ANALYSIS: First game of Wednesday and a scheduled matchup of lefties in Detroit's Tarik Skubal and the Cards' Jon Lester. Nearly 60 percent of my model simulations forecast the total to finish Under 9 runs. The Under is 4-0-1 in both teams' past five against a southpaw starter.
 

Jackofhearts

Moderator
Martin Green

Here are the 2021 Champions League qualifier picks from Martin Green (posted Tuesday):

Dinamo Zagreb vs. Sheriff Tiraspol (Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET)

Over 2.5 goals (-150)
Both teams to score (+100)
Dinamo Zagreb to win and 2 or more goals in the match -162 (one unit)

Brondby vs. RB Salzburg (Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET)

Salzburg to win and 2 or more goals in the match -150 (one unit)
Salzburg -1.5 +125 (one unit)

Monaco vs. Shakhtar (Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET)

Shakhtar draw no bet +100 (one unit)
Both teams to score -137 (one unit)
 

Jackofhearts

Moderator
SportsLine's Projection Model

DETROIT TIGERS AT ST. LOUIS CARDINALS | 8/25 | 1:15 P.M. ET

Against the Spread

Pick: Tigers +1.5 (-145)
The Tigers cover in 63 percent of simulations

Over-Under

Pick: Under 9
The model is projecting 8.2 total runs

Money Line

Pick: Cardinals -145
The Cardinals win in 62 percent of simulations

Projected final score: Cardinals 4.4, Tigers 3.8
 

Jackofhearts

Moderator
Tokyo Brandon

923) Detroit Tigers at (924) St. Louis Cardinals
Game: (923) Detroit Tigers at (924) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: Aug 25 2021 1:15 PM EDT
Play Rating: A%
Play: 1H Detroit Tigers +155 T Skubal (LHP), J Lester (LHP) Must Start
The Tigers hit lefties 6th best in MLB and I am amazed that Lester still has a job in this league. He is absolute trash. Skubal is so-so and the Cardinals are hitting a bit better, but for these odds the Tigers are a good 1% play. They are also a really good 1st 5 team. Take them 1st 5 money line.

(911) Los Angeles Dodgers at (912) San Diego Padres
Game: (911) Los Angeles Dodgers at (912) San Diego Padres
Date/Time: Aug 25 2021 10:10 PM EDT
Play Rating: A%
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -138 W Buehler (RHP), B Snell (LHP) Must Start
Buehler has not allowed more than two runs in a game since July 5th. Snell is good at home but with the Dodger lineup and a Cy Young candidate on the mound how could you not take them at this number? It should be -160. The Padres can not hit their way out of a paper bag these days. Take the Dodgers anything 150 or better.
 

Jackofhearts

Moderator
Justin Perri

KANSAS CITY @ HOUSTON | 08/25 | 2:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -1.5
ANALYSIS: I’ll go with the Astros to cover the run line (-1.5, -120) behind Lance McClullers. The Royals are one of the worst teams in the league against right-handed pitchers. Kansas City’s 86 wRC+ number against righties has it in the company of the Cubs, Orioles and other subpar teams. Meanwhile, the Astros should have little trouble with Mike Minor, who has won just two of his last 10 starts over the last two months and allowed three or more runs in eight of those 10 appearances.

DETROIT @ ST. LOUIS | 08/25 | 1:15 PM EDT
OVER 9
ANALYSIS: The weather is going to be a big boost to the total. It also doesn’t hurt that Cardinals pitcher Jon Lester is terrible at his new home park so far and that Detroit's Tarik Skubal has struggled on the road. Both teams hit left-handed pitching well and with the winds blowing out and it being a hot afternoon, let's take the Over.
 

Jackofhearts

Moderator
XS Sports

Executive Top Play Program
MLB
E* Houston -1.5 -120
E* LA Angels -1.5 -130

Regular Picks
MLB
C* Miami -105
C* Minnesota +1.5 -125
D* Detroit Over 9.5 -105
 

Jackofhearts

Moderator
Jeff Hochman

CHI. WHITE SOX @ TORONTO | 08/25 | 7:07 PM EDT
TORONTO -121
ANALYSIS: The White Sox haven't faced a lefthanded starter for five games and just one in the past 10 days. This will be the White Sox' 10th game in 10 days. The White Sox banged out a season-high 18 hits in yesterday's 5-2 victory. I like the Blue Jays in this one.
 

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