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Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

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Mar 6, 2018
Messages
42,345
JM Sports

Game: (921) Texas Rangers at (922) Cleveland Indians
Date/Time: Aug 25 2021 7:10 PM EDT
Play Rating: D units
Play: Cleveland Indians -163 J Latz (LHP), Z Plesac (RHP) Must Start
D unit Cleveland Indians (-163) over Texas Rangers (Plesac/Latz) 4 unit up to (-180) –
It's been a strange run with Covid for everyone, and the Rangers are struggling even more then others recently, with multiple players out due to the illness. This has resulted in Latz starting tomorrow in his first career MLB start, this year in the minors, he has had an ERA of 4.98, with 15 games in AA and 2 games in AAA, and in the 2 AAA starts he has posted a 7.00 ERA vs. AAA opponents. The Indians on the other hand are coming off a rough game on Tuesday, but after leading 0 innings they are 9-0 as a HF in the L9, and in the L17 as a F (with the line < -112) off a game where they never lead, they are 16-1! Plus, the Indians have Plesac on the mound, and while he has posted a 4.87 ERA TY, he is 7-4, including a 6-1 run with a 4.54 ERA in 13 starts since May 1st, and the Indians are 5-0 in his L5 starts vs. a RHP. Cleveland has been a difficult team to play at home, in the L5 games as a HF off a L as a HF they are 5-0, they are 11-0 @ H off a L when the line is under -105, and vs a NDIV opponent as a HF vs. RHP they are 9-1. CLE has also won 25 out of the L30 games as a HF, including 18-2 vs. RHP, and 16-0 when the line is between -230 and -120!!

Game: (911) Los Angeles Dodgers at (912) San Diego Padres
Date/Time: Aug 25 2021 10:10 PM EDT
Play Rating: E units
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -135 W Buehler (RHP), B Snell (LHP) Must Start
E unit LA Dodgers (-135) over San Diego Padres (Buehler/Snell) –
Buehler is holding his own at one of the top pitchers in a rotation full off accolades. He’s got a 13-2 record this year, in the last 15 starts he is 10-2 with a 1.74 ERA. He’s faced SD twice this year and has left with a ND each time, but allowing 4 runs in 13 innings, on the road this year Buehler has been impressive, to say the least, he is 5-0 in 10 starts with a 2.07 ERA, and in his 7 starts since the All-Star break he is 4-1 with a 1.50 ERA. LA is 17-8 in his starts this year, including 8-2 in the L10 on the road, 5-1 his L6 starts vs. a LHP, 9-1 in his L10 starts vs. a SP w/ an ERA > 4.00 (in those games they are outscoring opponents 7.64 - 2.82) and they are 11-1 in his L12 vs. an ERA over 3.5. Regardless of the pitching, the Dodgers are 7-1 in their L8 on the road, 13-2 in the L15 overall, and there may be one or more reasons why this team is happy to see Snell on the mound. LAD is 12-3 in their L15 vs. a LHP w/ an ERA over 4 (including 6-1 in the L7 on the road), they are 7-1 in the L8 vs. a SP w/ a WHIP > 1.50 (including 7-0 when the line is < -110), and this isn’t the first time they have seen Snell, but the Dodgers are 7-2 when the line is under -125, on the road vs. a SP who beat them last time out (including 5-1, and 4 in a row vs. a LHP who beat them). Snell has been solid at home, BUT since the All-Star break, Snell hasn’t seem to have the same second half, he is 3-2 but in 7 games his ERA is at 4.50, and the Padres are 2-4 in his L6 as a dog (including 0-4 vs. RHP), and they are 1-5 in the L6 Snell starts vs. a pitcher w/ an ERA under 3 when the line is > -180, not to mention 2-5 in the L7 vs. a divisional opponent when the line is > -180. The Padres have also struggled against good RHP, they are 4-11 vs. a RHP w/ an ERA < 2.5, when the line is between 160 & -180. SD is 2-9 vs. RHP w/ a WHIP < 1 when the line is > -115 (including losing 8 out of the L9). This is also only the 7th time SD has been a HD and they are 2-4, including 1-3 vs. RHP, they are 0-8 in the L8 as a dog vs. RHP.
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
42,345
Kyle Akins

L.A. ANGELS @ BALTIMORE | 08/25 | 7:05 PM EDT
L.A. ANGELS -246
ANALYSIS: Playing out the stretch with a complete lack of major-league pitching, there is nothing to stop Baltimore’s losing streak from continuing Wednesday. Los Angeles outslugged Baltimore on Tuesday, winning the series opener, 14-8. The Orioles are 0-13 since June 22 as a home underdog coming off a multiple-run loss. Shohei Ohtani has been extremely steady pitching as a favorite. The Angels are 10-0 since June 6, 2018 when Ohtani starts as a favorite of at least -125.
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
42,345
Matt Severance

KANSAS CITY @ HOUSTON | 08/25 | 2:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -1.5
ANALYSIS: I expect Houston to take off now that Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are both back from injury/COVID -- Bregman is being activated today. The Astros should rough up Royals lefty Mike Minor (5.34 ERA) as Kansas City has lost his past four overall, and he's a bit worse away from home. Houston leads the AL in OPS vs. southpaws. The Astros' Lance McCullers (10-4, 3.21) has a 2.73 ERA in five career starts vs. the Royals. Tempted to take Houston without the runline (at -120), but -245 is a big number.
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
42,345
National Sports Service
D* Toronto (Ray) -120 over Chicago White Sox (Giolito)

Primetime Sports Picks
D Unit --> Kansas City (Minor)/Houston (McCullers) OVER 9
C Unit --> Washington (Gray) -110 over Miami (Cabrera)
C Unit --> Cincinnati (Castillo) +1.5 runs -135 over Milwaukee (Woodruff)

Top Rank Sports Picks
D★ L.A. Dodgers (Buehler) -130 over San Diego (Snell)
C★ Detroit (Skubal) +140 over St. Louis (Lester)
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
42,345
MLB Sharp Action

2:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals (56-69) at Houston Astros (74-52)

After the Royals stole the series opener 7-1 as + 225 road dogs, the Astros bounced back with a 4-0 shutout of Kansas City on Tuesday night, cashing as -250 home favorites. In this afternoon's rubber match, the Royals hand the ball to lefty Mike Minor (8-11, 5.34 ERA) and the Astros counter with righty Lance McCullers (10-4, 3.21 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a hefty -210 home favorite and Kansas City a + 190 road dog. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're laying the big chalk with the Astros, who have a far better record, are at home and have a glaring starting pitcher advantage. Non-division home favorites are 407-256 (61.4%) this season. Big home favorites -200 or more are 157-60 (72.4%). Houston is 61-39 as a favorite and 28-22 against lefties. Kansas City is 35-52 as a dog and 36-51 against righties. Houston will lean on their bats in this one. The Astros are hitting .268, which ranks 1st in MLB. The Royals are hitting .245, which ranks 12th. Houston is 40-25 at home while Kansas City is 24-38 on the road. Pros have also hit this under, dropping the total down from 9 to 8.5. The under is 2-0 this series and 4-1-1 in the six meetings this season.

7:07 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox (73-54) at Toronto Blue Jays (65-59)

These AL playoff contenders have split the first two games of the series. The Jays took the opener 2-1 as -115 home favorites and then the White Sox secured a 5-2 win last night as + 115 road dogs. In tonight's rubber match, Chicago sends out righty Lucas Giolito (9-9, 3.77 ERA) to face Toronto lefty Robbie Ray (9-5, 2.79 ERA). This line opened with the Jays listed as a -120 home favorite and the White Sox a + 110 home dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to back. However, we've seen the Jays fall from -120 to -115, signaling some sharp action on the White Sox at a plus money payout (+ 110 to + 105). Chicago has value as a road dog with a line move in their favor. We've also seen late season dogs with a strong winning record (.550 or better) perform well in August and September. These teams have cashed at roughly a 48% clip the past decade but have produced roughly + 60 units. Chicago also mashes lefties, going 21-13 against southpaws this season.

10:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (79-47) at San Diego Padres (68-59)

These NL West rivals are trending in opposite directions. The Dodgers are 9-1 over their last ten games while the Padres are just 2-8. Despite trailing the first place Giants by 2.5 games, the Dodgers are still -165 favorites to win the division at BetMGM. Meanwhile, San Diego has now fallen out of the second Wild Card spot and now trails the Reds by a game. Los Angeles took care of business in last night's series opener, winning 5-2 as -140 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Los Angeles taps ace righty Walker Buehler (13-2, 2.11 ERA) and San Diego trots out lefty Blake Snell (6-5, 4.82 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -127 road favorite and the Padres a + 117 home dog. Pros are riding the hot hand and backing Los Angeles to win again with their ace on the hill, steaming the Dodgers up from -127 to -140. Los Angeles is 78-44 as a favorite. San Diego is 8-13 as a dog. The Dodgers are 22-13 against lefties while the Padres are just 46-45 against righties. The Dodgers also have value as a favorite with a low total (8). Historically, low totals have benefited favorites as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team.
 
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