Top NCAAF Pick: Texas -4 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Can Michael Penix Jr. and Washington overcome the NCAAF odds to keep their unbeaten season alive against Texas in the Sugar Bowl? Or will Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns pass a good time down in the Big Easy with their sights set on the CFP Championship? Let’s find out while placing our best bets at the main offshore sportsbooks.
Texas Longhorns vs. Washington Huskies
Monday, January 01, 2024 – 08:45 PM ET at Caesars Superdome
Steve Sarkisian’s first matchup as head coach in Austin against his old team went to the lads from Seattle. He and the Texas Longhorns are now seeking a little revenge when they meet the Washington Huskies in the 2023 Sugar Bowl with a trip to the CFP Championship on the line.
Both Sides with Slight ‘Under’ Leans
According to the folks at Bookmaker, Sarkisian and the Longhorns will accomplish that task by handing the Huskies their first loss. Texas is favored by 4 at the majority of wagering outlets, while the total bounces from 63 to 63½, depending on your preferred shop.
Kalen DeBoer and the Huskies got the better of Sarkisian and the Longhorns just before the calendars shifted from 2022 to 2023 down in San Antonio at the Alamo Bowl. Washington was getting 3 from the oddsmakers and controlled the line of scrimmage plus the clock in a 27-20 win. Texas scored 10 in the final 10 minutes, but the rally came up short.
That was the first time the teams met since putting on a thrilling show in the 2001 Holiday Bowl. The teams were scoreless in the first quarter before blowing up the scoreboard in a 47-43 Texas triumph. The Longhorns trailed by 19 late in the third.
Washington also won the other bowl matchup between the schools, a 14-7 decision in the 1979 Sun Bowl. Texas won a pair of regular season games in 1974-75 and has a 3-2 lead in the series.
Huskies Finish on 3-Game ‘Under’ Run
All DeBoer has done in two seasons at Washington is turn a 4-8 team into a National Championship contender. It was more than enough for the 49-year-old South Dakotan to earn the 2023 Eddie Robinson Award as coach of the year, and having the 2nd-place quarterback in the Heisman Trophy voting shouldn’t hurt DeBoer on the recruiting trail.
Michael Penix Jr. was the Heisman runner-up following another big year that saw him pass for over 4,200 yards and connect on 33 scoring strikes. He keeps showing up as a first-rounder in NFL mock drafts after repeatedly keeping the Huskies’ unbeaten season intact.
The Pac-12’s top passing offense also got help from a rushing attack that was led by Dillon Johnson. The 6-foot junior ran for more than 1,100 yards – 3rd in Pac-12 – and his O-line proved proficient in run-blocking as pass-blocking by allowing only 11 sacks.
Defensively, the Huskies finished back in the pack in Pac-12 play, allowing 23.6 PPG (6th) and 397 YPG (8th). They made up for some of that by leading the conference with 16 interceptions as well as excellent special teams play.
Could Manning See Action?
Texas was the only one of the four CFP semifinalists not to have a player receive a vote for this year’s Heisman Trophy, which went to LSU’s Jayden Daniels. Quinn Ewers had a fine season for the Longhorns, finishing second in the Big 12 averaging 287+ YPG passing and directing an offense that ranked ninth in the country with 475.9 YPG.
Despite that, Ewers is being shadowed on his own team by a future favorite for the award, Arch Manning, and the true freshman has inched up to No. 2 on the Texas depth chart after former backup Maalik Murphy entered the transfer portal.
Sarkisian, of course, hopes Manning does see some action in the Sugar Bowl, but only after Ewers has the Longhorns ahead by 20+ in the closing moments of the game. In addition to Ewers and the offense, Texas has a solid defense that can frustrate the Huskies, especially by taking away their running game.
Bowl Histories & Betting Trends
This is the 58th bowl appearance for Texas, and the fifth time the Longhorns have been in the Big Easy for the Sugar Bowl. They own a 31-24-2 bowl record overall, and have split their last four Sugars, the most recent a 28-21 upset win over Georgia at the 2019 game.
That contest became famous – infamous? – for then-QB Sam Ehlinger’s quote, “We’re baaaaack.” Since then, Texas has only been ‘back’ to three Alamo Bowls in four seasons, missing an invite altogether with a 5-7 showing in 2021. The Longhorns went 2-1 straight-up and against the spread in those three bowl matchups, all against Pac-12 teams, and 1-2 O/U.
The win over Texas a year ago left the Huskies a level 20-20-1 in their previous 41 bowl trips. This is their first Rose Bowl since dropping a 28-23 decision in the 2019 contest, just missing the cover as 4½-point underdogs.
This will be Washington’s first trek into New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl. Including last December’s win over Texas in the Alamo Bowl, the Huskies are 3-4 in bowl games against current Big 12 teams.
The Pick
Washington was used to playing in tight games most of the season, especially down the stretch, and that could give Penix and the Huskies an edge late in this one if it’s tight. But it won’t be as Texas wins the turnover battle and busts it open in the first half for a 38-24 decision.
NCAAF Pick: Texas -4 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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