MLB Pick: Rays ML (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We have a full betting card of Major League Baseball matchups Wednesday, as all 30 MLB teams are in action. And after going 5-1 our last two days at the top-rated sportsbooks, we return with our three plays for the day that we feel hold the most betting value at the current MLB odds, including the Phillies vs. Reds and Red Sox vs. Guardians.
Also, check out our YouTube video if you’re interested in extra picks for the Athletics-Yankees and Mariners-Rangers.
We head down to South Beach for our final value bet of the evening, as our model likes a side in the matchup between the Tigers and Rays.
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Wednesday, April 24, 2024 – 06:50 PM ET at Tropicana Field
Former Tiger Tyler Alexander is expected to follow an opener for the Rays against his old team Wednesday, and Tampa Bay is getting our betting call as small home favorites over Jack Flaherty and the Tigers.
Turned Things Around
Alexander is scheduled to follow opener Shawn Armstrong, and do not be fooled by his current surface stats. While Anderson has a 4.75 ERA and 5.00 xFIP, he had two bad outings to begin the year with the second one coming in Colorado. He is now rounding to form nicely, allowing two runs and only eight hits over 11.1 innings in his last two outings. That includes tossing 5.1 shutout innings vs. the Yankees last out.
And remember Tyler is very familiar with the Detroit lineup after spending his first five Major League seasons with the Tigers before joining the Rays this year. He is coming off a year where he posted a career-best 4.14 xFIP for Detroit with an excellent K/BB ratio of 9.00/1.02 per nine innings. His last two efforts indicate he may be on his way to similar levels this year.
Overrated?
We have always felt that Flaherty is a bit overrated. He is a pitcher who has only had one season with double-digit wins. That was during his career year for the Cardinals in 2019 when he posted a 2.75 ERA. Even there his xFIP was a more ordinary 3.64. It has been all downhill since then. Jack has been posting an ERA over 4.00 in four of the last five seasons (including this year).
Jack comes in at 0-1 with a 4.44 ERA over four starts in his first season with the Tigers. Granted, the news is not all bad with Flaherty having an excellent K/BB ratio of 11.10/1.48 per nine innings. However, there were some disturbing signs in his last start for a guy who has been plagued by arm injuries.
The Pick
Jack’s velocity was a season-low 93.0 MPH while also having season-worsts in hard-contact (30.8%) and soft-contact (7.7%). That concern plus Alexander’s familiarity with the Tigers’ lineup has us buying low on the Rays at home.
Predicted Score: Rays 5 – Tigers 3
MLB Pick: Rays ML (-115) at Bookmaker
Calculators
