MLB Pick: Reds ML (-107) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We have a full betting card of Major League Baseball matchups on Wednesday, as all 30 MLB teams are in action. After going 5-1 our last two days at the top-rated sportsbooks, we return with our three plays for the day that we feel hold the most betting value at the current MLB odds, including the Red Sox vs. Guardians and Tigers vs. Rays games.
Also, check out our YouTube video if you’re interested in extra picks for the Athletics-Yankees and Mariners-Rangers.
Our next best bet for Wednesday comes in the Queen City of Cincinnati. Our proprietary model sees value on a side when the Phillies visit the Reds.Athl
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds
Wednesday, April 24, 2024 – 06:40 PM ET at Great American Ball Park
In a matchup of two pitchers that are off to great starts in 2024, we have much more faith in Nick Lodolo of the Reds. Thus, we are backing him at home over Spencer Turnbull and the Phillies.
Too Much Luck
Turnbull comes in at 2-0 with a spiffy 1.23 ERA through four starts covering 22 innings. However, Spencer has quite a few underlying red flags. We are always dubious about pitchers over 30 (Turnbull is 31 years old) having career years for no apparent reason, and Turnbull’s average velocity is down this season to 92.1 MPH from 93.4 last year.
However, Spencer has scored high in the Luck stats, which is not a good thing. He is allowing a ridiculously low BABIP of .167 while owning an extreme strand rate of 84.3%. He even has a low swinging strike rate of 9.8%, so we expect negative regression for his ERA. And that regression may start tonight by pitching in a Hitters’ Paradise against a Reds offense whose best wRC+ split has been facing righties at home (105).
Real Deal?
Lodolo is also 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 2.27 xFIP. The difference between Lodolo and Turnbull though is that Nick was a first-round draft pick in 2019 that is just starting to come into his own in his third Major League season. Obviously, he will not maintain the current ERA, but his xFIP may very well be legitimate.
You see, Lodolo has an eye-popping K/BB ratio of 12.00/0.75 per nine innings. And those strikeouts are not an aberration for someone who combines a 94.1 MPH fastball and 93.8 MPH sinker while getting great separation with a plus-rated 81.1 MPH slider. That mix has resulted in a career 11.67/9 strikeout rate through 149.2 Major League innings.
The Pick
If the improved command Lodolo has displayed with the low walk rate in his third year is real, he has an extremely bright future. Thus, we are betting him at this cheap price against a more over-achieving Turnbull.
Predicted Score: Reds 6 – Phillies 4
MLB Pick: Reds ML (-107) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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