MLB Pick: Red Sox – Guardians Under 8 (-118) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have a full betting card of Major League Baseball matchups on Wednesday, as all 30 MLB teams are in action. After going 5-1 our last two days at the top-rated sportsbooks, we return with our three plays for the day that we feel hold the most betting value at the current MLB odds, including the Tigers vs. Rays and Phillies vs. Reds games.
Also, check out our YouTube video if you’re interested in extra picks for the Athletics-Yankees and Mariners-Rangers.
These picks are mostly based on our proprietary model. Our first play is scheduled for 06:10 PM ET, as our model likes a total in the Red Sox vs. Guardians matchup.
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
Wednesday, April 24, 2024 – 06:10 PM ET at Progressive Field
Hitting conditions are not expected to be ideal in Cleveland Wednesday with the wind blowing in at about 10 MPH and temperatures in the low 40s. Thus, bet the Under when Cooper Criswell and the Red Sox visit Carlos Carrasco and the Guardians.
Found Fountain of Youth?
While with the Mets last season, the 37-year-old Carrasco appeared to be done, posting a 3-8 record with a 6.80 ERA, 4.93 xFIP, and a 6.60/9 strikeout rate. However, he is having a resurgence with the Guardians with a 3.44 ERA through four starts. Granted, his xFIP is higher at 4.88, but that is still better than last season. Similarly, while his strikeout rate will never be what it once was, the current 7.85/9 is more than a full strikeout more than last year.
It appears that Carlos has become craftier, throwing more sliders and change-ups this season than in years past. Not only has that helped lead to the improved strikeout rate, but it has also induced a 49.0% groundball rate thus far, which would be his best rate since 2015 if maintained.
It also helps that the Red Sox announced slugger Triston Casas is out indefinitely. This helps the cause of both Carrasco and our Under.
Good Bullpen
Criswell has made two appearances this season, one as a true starter and one following an opener. He performed better in the start, allowing two runs in four innings. In his early bullpen call, he roughed up allowing four runs in 2.1 innings. This resulted in his current 4.26 ERA and 4.35 xFIP.
That xFIP lines up with his 4.39 career mark, so that appears to be Cooper’s proper level. Remember though that all pitchers tonight should benefit from the weather conditions. Also, Criswell does not figure to work beyond four innings. That is not necessarily a bad thing with the Boston bullpen ranking sixth in the majors with a 3.64 xFIP.
The Pick
That combination of Criswell plus the Boston pen, a newly effective Carrasco, the absence of Casas and the weather all have us betting the Under Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Guardians 4 – Red Sox 2
MLB Pick: Red Sox – Guardians Under 8 (-118) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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