We have a typical schedule of 15 Major League Baseball betting matchups on Sunday, with 14 afternoon games plus Sunday Night Baseball.
We have three best bets for Sunday with our third and final selection coming in the desert, where our model likes a total with the Padres visiting the Diamondbacks.
Remember, these plays are the ones we feel hold the most betting value at the current MLB odds offered by the top-rated sportsbooks.
For our other best bets check out:
MLB Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sunday, May 05, 2024 – 04:10 PM ET at Chase Field
For starters, the roof is scheduled to be closed at Chase Field for this Sunday afternoon contest. That helps give added value to the Under when Matt Waldron and the Padres visit Ryne Nelson and the Diamondbacks.
Improved Velocity
Nelson is coming off the injured list to make his fifth start after going 1-2 with a 4.60 ERA and 4.40 xFIP earlier this season. However, those surface stats over a small sampling are skewed by a poor first start of the year. He then followed that up with a 2.77 ERA and 3.18 xFIP over his next three starts before going on the IL.
Ryne also displayed great command in those last three outings with 11 strikeouts against one walk over 13 innings. He may be in line for his best Major League season at the age of 26, as his average velocity is at a career-high 95.5 MPH and he has seen a nice uptick in his swinging-strike rate so far, to 9.9% from 8.8% last year.
Closed Roof Hurts Offenses
While Waldron may not be anything special, he is adequate as his 4.35 ERA lines up nicely with his 4.30 xFIP, suggesting he is at his proper level. There is potential for some improvement though as his moderate strikeout rate of 7.84/9 is still an improvement over his 6.75/9 rate last season.
He should also benefit by facing an Arizona offense whose worst wRC+ split this season has oddly been against right-handers at home at only 84, or 16% below average. And do not forget that the closed roof means the ball does not carry as well as it does in the desert air, hurting both offenses.
MLB Best Bet
The combination of Nelson’s improvement, the Diamondbacks’ offensive struggles against righties at home and the closed roof has us betting the Under on Sunday.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 4 – Padres 3
MLB Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-115) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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