We have a typical Friday 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups, including a matinee at Wrigley Field. We have three best bets for today’s slate with the highest betting value according to the current MLB odds provided by the top-rated sportsbooks.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model points to a total on the West Coast late Friday night with the Rockies visiting the Giants.
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-104) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Friday, May 17, 2024 – 10:15 PM ET at Oracle Park
The Rockies have now become the hottest team in baseball with seven straight wins, keyed by great offense. That has us backing the Over with a shaky Ryan Feltner visiting Kyle Harrison and the Giants.
Don’t Believe Last Start
Feltner is coming off his best start of the season where he allowed two runs on only five hits against the Rangers on Saturday. That outing seemingly came out of nowhere though from a guy currently sporting a 5.20 ERA, and even in that improved outing he had only four strikeouts against two walks.
We will chalk up that outing as an outlier, especially given the low strikeout total. Furthermore, Ryan has a higher 5.90 ERA on the road, which is ironic for a Colorado pitcher. He has allowed five runs or more in three of his five road outings with only one official Quality Start, and even that was against the lowly Marlins in Miami.
Rockies Are Rocking
Given that we expect Feltner to bounce back to reality tonight and this low total, Harrison may not need to allow many runs to clear this Over. And while he is 3-1 with a 3.42 ERA, his xFIP is nearly a full run higher at 4.37, mainly due to a high 3.06/9 walk rate. He also has a shaky soft/hard contact ratio of 14.0% / 30.8%,
Furthermore, the Rockies have been on fire offensively during the 7-game winning streak. They have averaged 6.14 runs and 10.85 hits over the seven games, scoring at least five runs and reaching double-digit hits five times each. Since the streak began on May 9th, Colorado ranks fourth in the league in wRC+ at 119.
The Pick
While we feel that the Colorado winning streak comes to an end here with us giving the Giants the pitching edge, we do feel that both teams will score enough to clear this low total. Thus, our official bet is on the Over on Friday.
Predicted Score: Giants 6 – Rockies 4
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-104) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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