Mets vs. Marlins MLB Best Bet: Christian to Prey on Jesus

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Christian Scott #45 of the New York Mets pitches during the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field on May 11, 2024 in New York City. Jim McIsaac/Getty Images/AFP

We have a typical Friday 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups, including a matinee at Wrigley Field. As usual, we are here with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds provided by top-rated sportsbooks.

These value-bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which favors one side in the Mets vs. Marlins matchup on Friday night.

MLB Pick: Mets ML (-114) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins

Friday, May 17, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at LoanDepot Park

In a matchup of currently the bottom two teams in the NL East, we are supporting Christian Scott and the Mets on the road visiting Jesus Luzardo and the Marlins.

Top Prospect, Drop in Class

The Mets have dropped five of their last six games to drop to fourth place in the National League East. To be fair though, those six games were against two of the best teams in baseball the Braves and Phillies, and they now plummet in class facing the last-place Marlins. And they do so with one of their top pitching prospects on the mound.

Scott has lived up to his press clippings over his first two Major League starts, allowing four runs over 12.2 innings with 14 strikeouts against three walks. He has graded out to a 2.84 ERA and 3.27 xFIP while already approaching the double-digit strikeout rate he had at every minor league level, currently at 9.95/9. Scott has averaged 95.0 MPH on his fastball with great separation to 85.0 MPH for his plus-rated slider.

He should continue to impress against a weak Miami offense ranked 26th in wRC+ against right-handers at 85.

Not the Same Pitcher

We have always liked Luzardo in the past, but he has simply not been the same pitcher thus far in 2024 despite being at the seemingly peak age of 26. He is 0-3 with a 5.97 ERA while struggling with wildness and giving up long balls when he does find the strike zone. To wit, he has a scary walk rate of 3.98/9 and a home run rate allowed of 1.42/9.

Along with his K-BB% being noticeably down to 15.8% this year from 20.6% last season, Jesus has also seen his groundball rate plunge to 34.9% from 40.2%. Thus, the increase in home runs allowed makes sense with the increase in air contact and an above-average hard-contact rate of 33.3%.

The Pick

The bottom line here is the Mets are better than they have looked recently while the Marlins deserve their last place standing. With Scott also showing nice promise and Luzardo showing decline, bet on New York down in South Beach.

Predicted Score: Mets 5 – Marlins 3

MLB Pick: Mets ML (-114) at Heritage Sports

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Mets ML (-114)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.