We have a typical Sunday Major League Baseball slate today with 14 afternoon MLB matchups plus Sunday Night Baseball. As usual, we are here with our three plays for the day that we feel hold the most betting value at the current MLB odds posted at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Our second best bet for Sunday is also scheduled for 2:10 pm ET, and this time our proprietary model sees value in the total in the Windy City as the Reds visit the White Sox. For added coverage:
MLB Best Bet: Over 9 (-108) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox
Sunday, April 14, 2024 – 02:10 PM ET at Guaranteed Rate Field
We expect runs to be bountiful in Chicago on Sunday when Michael Soroka and the White Sox host Graham Ashcraft and the Reds.
Not Same Pitcher Post-Surgery
Soroka was a promising prospect who appeared to have a bright future when he first came up with the Braves. However, he had arm surgery after making just three starts in 2020 and then missed the entire 2021 and 2022 campaigns.
He went 2-2 in his comeback season for Atlanta last season, but they cut ties with him after he posted a 6.40 ERA through 32.1 innings.
His first season for the White Sox has not been a good one so far, as he has a 6.14 ERA and 5.23 xFIP in three starts covering 14.2 innings. As if that is not bad enough, he has just as many walks as he does strikeouts, and his hard-contact rate is a career-high 39.2%. Even worse, his average velocity is a career-low 92.4 MPH. He cannot yet be expected to work deeply into games, and the White Sox bullpen ranks just 26th with a 4.93 xFIP.
Inconsistent
Now we get that many experts are enamored with Ashcraft’s arm, and he had brief flashes of greatness over his first two Major League seasons. But he has been maddeningly inconsistent, and for someone with such potential, he has a low career strikeout rate of 6.62/9 through 262.1 innings.
He is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA this year, and that lone win was undeserved as he allowed five earned runs and 10 baserunners in 5.1 innings. He was bailed out by the offense in that 10-8 victory, and today could be a case of déjà vu considering his mound opponent. The Cincinnati bullpen has not been light-out either ranking 22nd in xFIP at 4.62.
So, with two shaky starters and two bad bullpens, bet the Over at Guaranteed Rate Field on Sunday.
Predicted Score: Reds 7 – White Sox 5
MLB Best Bet: Over 9 (-108) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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