We have a typical full card of Major League Baseball betting matchups on Sunday, with 14 games in the afternoon plus Sunday Night Baseball.
As usual, we are here with our three plays for the day that we feel hold the most betting value at the current MLB odds from the top-rated sportsbooks. Our action begins early with two best bets at 1:40 pm ET. In the first one, the model likes a side in the Cardinals vs. Mets matchup.
For our other two MLB best bets, check out the following links:
MLB Best Bet: Mets ML (-113) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets
Sunday, April 28, 2024 – 01:40 PM ET at Citi Field
The Mets have cooled off after a hot stretch, but we expect them to avoid getting swept at home Sunday behind southpaw Jose Quintana against Lance Lynn and the Cardinals.
Overachiever?
Now 36 years old, Lynn has managed to carve out a nice Major League career despite being a thorn in the side of Sabermetricians. That is because his ERA has constantly outperformed his underlying metrics his whole career, and 2024 has been no different as his current 2.81 ERA belies his 4.44 xFIP.
Lance has been very lucky with an 82.2% strand rate, and that is despite a high home run rate allowed of 1.40/9. That means the strand rate approaches 90% when he does not allow home runs, which is, obviously, unsustainable. He also combines a high walk rate of 3.51/9 with a low groundball rate of 37.3%. He is facing a Mets offense still above average in wRC+ at 105 despite the recent slump.
Can’t Hit Lefties
Now, we get that Quintana has been mediocre with a 4.21 ERA and 4.71 xFIP. However, most of that damage took place in his last start, when he was blown up with five earned runs allowed on seven hits plus three walks in five innings. Jose had allowed three earned runs or less in each of his first four outings, entering that stinker with a 3.05 ERA.
We see Quintana bouncing back here against a St. Louis offense that has struggled mightily with southpaws. The Cardinals are ranked 25th in baseball in wRC+ against lefties at 77, or 23% below average.
Jose also has the support of a fine Mets bullpen that ranks sixth in baseball in xFIP (3.57), sixth in ERA (2.81) and first in strikeout rate (11.48/9).
Thus, we expect the Cardinals to struggle offensively all game, as well as Lynn to start regressing toward his shaky metrics. So bet the Mets as small home favorites.
MLB Best Bet
Predicted Score: Mets 5 – Cardinals 3
MLB Best Bet: Mets ML (-113) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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