We have a typical full card of Major League Baseball betting matchups on Sunday, with 14 games in the afternoon plus Sunday Night Baseball.
We are here as usual with our three best bets we feel hold the most betting value at the current MLB odds offered by the top-rated sportsbooks. Our second early play at 1:40 pm ET is in the Motor City, where our proprietary model sees value on a side when the Royals visit the Tigers.
For our other two MLB best bets, check out the following links:
MLB Best Bet: Tigers ML (-146) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Sunday, April 28, 2024 – 01:40 PM ET at Comerica Park
We see a bigger pitching mismatch than the surface stats may indicate in Detroit on Sunday. Therefore, we are laying the odds with Taril Skubal and the Tigers when they host Michael Wacha and the Royals.
Darkhorse for Cy Young?
Skubal is currently third in the Major Leagues with his 2.54 xFIP. Considering he also has a 1.82 ERA and the Tigers’ overall improvement this season, he may find himself garnering some Cy Young Award votes by year’s end. And best of all, his peripherals support the gaudy surface stats.
Tarik has an excellent K/BB ratio of 10.62/1.52 per nine innings while also generating a good groundball rate of 46.5%. His average fastball velocity is at a career-high of 96.4 MPH, and that average is actually higher for his sinker at 96.6 MPH.
That helps explain the high strikeout and groundball rates, but also his hard-contact rate allowed is a low 18.3%, which is, in fact, equal to his soft-contact rate.
Not Many Swinging Strikes
Now Wacha has a good 3.81 ERA and 3.94 xFIP, but unlike Skubal, Michael has some underlying red flags. The most obvious and concerning of which is his weak K/BB ratio of 7.94/2.86 per nine innings. Granted, the walks are nothing new as they match his career rate of 2.89/9.
But the decrease in the strikeout rate is a big alarm for a 32-year-old with a history of arm problems.
Worst of all, that decrease does not seem fluky when seeing his swinging-strike rate is way down this season from just last year to a disturbing 9.2% from 10.7%. On top of that, Wacha has always been a worse pitcher on the road with a career 4.42 ERA and 4.32 xFIP away compared to 3.51/3.35 at home. That has continued this season with a 5.29 ERA in three road starts.
MLB Best Bet
In summary, with Skubal pitching like a Cy Young contender and Wacha worse on the road, back the Tigers as favorites on Sunday.
Predicted Score: Tigers 5 – Royals 2
MLB Best Bet: Tigers ML (-146) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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