We have a typical full card of Major League Baseball betting matchups on Sunday, with 14 games in the afternoon plus Sunday Night Baseball.
We have a total of three best bets for Sunday that we feel hold the most betting value at the current MLB odds you can find at the top-rated sportsbooks. And all three plays are sides as our model likes another one in the Emerald City, where the Diamondbacks visit the Mariners.
For our other two MLB best bets, check out the following links:
MLB Best Bet: Diamondbacks ML (+117) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners
Sunday, April 28, 2024 – 04:10 PM ET at T-Mobile Park
We are looking for a mild upset in the Great Northwest on Sunday, as we are betting on Brandon Pfaadt and the underdog Diamondbacks when they visit Logan Gilbert and the Mariners.
Better Than the ERA
Although it was not apparent from his overall 3-9 record, 5.72 ERA and 4.46 xFIP as a rookie last year, Pfaadt may have been Arizona’s best pitcher after his second recall from the minors. Well, there are some similarities already this season with Brandon being much better than his 4.97 ERA.
His xFIP is much better at 3.81 and he has improved his walk rate his second season to 1.86/9 from 2.44 as a rookie. He has done that while maintaining a good strikeout rate of 8.38/9 and lowering his hard contact rate to 26.4% from 38.6%. That reduction has in turn lowered his home runs allowed from 2.06/9 to a more manageable 1.24.
He is facing a Seattle offense whose worst wRC+ split has been vs. righties at home at 97.
Extremely Lucky
Gilbert comes in at 2-0 with a 1.87 ERA and 3.25 xFIP through five starts. That looks great on paper, but the picture is not so rosy when looking at the main reason the xFIP is nearly 1.50 higher than the ERA. And that reason is Luck, not in the literal sense but in the Sabermetric sense.
Now, there is luck and there is LUCK, and Gilbert may top the majors in that department. You see, the two main Luck stats are BABIP and strand rate. Well, Gilbert ranks sixth in baseball in lowest BABIP allowed at .190 and he is fifth in strand rate at 93.5%. That sum of 11 in those two rankings is easily the lowest sum of any qualifying starter.
MLB Best Bet
That suggests that Gilbert’s ERA will eventually rise with normalization, and even his xFIP may rise too. So, with Pfaadt on the opposite end with his ERA expected to regress downward, bet the Diamondbacks as underdogs.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 4 – Mariners 3
MLB Best Bet: Diamondbacks ML (+117) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
