The NFL held its annual scouting combine in Indianapolis last week, and many of the top prospects in the 2024 NFL draft participated in drills and team interviews to better their chances for April’s selection.
Speed was the name of the game with some eye-popping numbers, including a record 40-yard dash time by a Texas wide receiver.
We have some takeaways from this important step in the process of welcoming the next class of rookies into the NFL before we start betting on them at top-rated online sportsbooks.
Speed Is the Headline, but It’s Never the Only Thing
Speed and athleticism were on full display at the combine, which may not come as a surprise given the depth at wide receiver and corner in this class.
However, no one stole the show quite like Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy, who broke a combine record by running his 40-yard dash in 4.21 seconds. This is certainly going to raise Worthy’s draft stock. He was a 3-year starter at Texas and had career highs with 75 catches and 1,014 yards last season.
However, with so many receivers expected to go in the first 2 rounds this year, it will be more important than ever to match up the perfect skillset with the right offense and quarterback. There is also the question of whether the 40 is really that great of a predictor of wide receiver play since you almost are never running 40 yards in a straight line without looking back for the ball in this game.
In fact, just check out the NFL production – or lack thereof – for the other 7 wide receivers who ran 4.30 or better to rank up there with Worthy at past combines:
- John Ross (4.22 seconds, drafted by the 2017 Bengals, 1st round, 9th pick) – Notorious draft bust who only caught 62 passes for 957 yards in 5 NFL seasons. He did catch 11 touchdowns, but that was his only impressive stat as he caught 43.4% of his targets.
- Henry Ruggs III (4.27 seconds, drafted by the 2020 Raiders, 1st round, 12th pick) – Had a chance to turn into a star if he didn’t recklessly drink and drive, leading to the death of a woman and her dog, and sending him to prison for the next 3-to-10 years for vehicular manslaughter.
- Marquise Goodwin (4.27 seconds, drafted by the 2013 Bills, 3rd round, 78th pick) – Long career as a deep threat with many teams on his way to 3,090 receiving yards, but his career-high 962 yards with the 49ers in 2017 is the only time he ever cracked 450 yards in an NFL season.
- Tyquan Thornton (4.28 seconds, drafted by the 2022 Patriots, 2nd round, 50th pick) – Hasn’t shown much of anything in a bad New England offense as he is only averaging 15.4 receiving yards per game.
- J.J. Nelson (4.28 seconds, drafted by the 2015 Cardinals, 5th round, 159th pick) – Had a couple of 500-yard seasons for Arizona, making him a decent deep threat for a 5th-round pick, but he was never a consistent starter or anything in the NFL.
- Jacoby Ford (4.28 seconds, drafted by the 2010 Raiders, 4th round, 108th pick) – Another forgettable speed pick by the Raiders, Ford finished his career with 848 yards in 38 games.
- Darrius Heyward-Bey (4.30 seconds, drafted by the 2009 Raiders, 1st round, 7th pick) – The Raiders loved their speedsters who weren’t very good as DHB had bad hands and never improved on his 2011 season when he had a career-high 975 yards. He averaged 20.1 yards per game in his career.
Out of 7 receivers, there wasn’t a single 1,000-yard season between them, and Ruggs (46.1) was the only one to average 30 yards per game in his career.
Still, this will be a fun wide receiver class to track as Worthy’s Texas teammate, Adonai Mitchell, also ran the 40 in 4.34 seconds, the 3rd-fastest wideout at the combine. Mitchell has the size advantage at 6’4” and weighs a solid 25 pounds more than Worthy, who is only 165 pounds.
The Gauntlet Gambit
Receivers come in all shapes and sizes, and playing style matters as much as anything. But a drill like the gauntlet may be more telling of “game speed” than the 40. Florida State wideout Keon Coleman only ran 4.61 in the 40, but he was the fastest in the gauntlet, a drill that Puka Nacua shined at in 2023 before his rookie season broke records.
According to Next Gen Stats, Coleman reached a top speed of 20.36 miles per hour on the gauntlet drill, the fastest for any wide receiver in the last 2 combines.
Even someone like Jerry Rice notoriously played much faster than he tested. That’s not to say any receiver in this class is going to be the GOAT, but figuring out the wide receiver position should always involve much more than a speed test.
But if the Chiefs wanted to draft Worthy and give him the Mecole Hardman role where he can dominate on screens and pre-snap motion, then they should go for it. Just don’t let a team like the Carolina Panthers expect Worthy to be DeSean Jackson or Tyreek Hill for them, because he probably will never be that in the NFL.
Next Gen Stats Make the Combine More Interesting
We just referenced a speed number from Next Gen Stats above, but the player tracking data certainly adds some nice context to the combine and how athletic these prospects are in their drills.
For example, part of the combine is to measure a player’s height and weight. We have seen the NFL continuously shift to edge defenders and linebackers that are lighter and faster. While this year’s group of such defenders are not high on the overall big boards, they are certainly in historic company in regard to their speed and build according to data from Next Gen Stats:
- The 2024 edge defenders at the combine weighed an average of 255.3 pounds, the lightest in 20 years.
- The 2024 linebackers at the combine weighed an average of 231.8 pounds, the 2nd-lightest group in 20 years.
- Both groups were also the 2nd-fastest in terms of average 40-yard dash times in the last 20 years, only beat out by 2023 in both groups.
With Next Gen Stats, we also get more detail on just how impressive some of these speed runs were by the players. For example, Xavier Worthy set that record with his 4.21 second 40, but he also reached a top speed of 24.41 mph, beating out teammate Adonai Mitchell (23.84 mph) and everyone else for the fastest recorded speed at the combine this year.
We also can start better tracking different metrics beyond the 40 for offensive linemen, who practically never need to run 40 yards on any play in the NFL. What about their get-off speed? That might be something we can glean from looking at a stat like the fastest 5-yard split to start a 40-yard dash.
Notre Dame’s Joe Alt excelled in the 5-yard split this year with a top speed of 14.14 mph, the only player above 14.0 this year. He is already considered the top offensive tackle prospect by many this year, and a stat like this looks good for him and more impressive than his overall 40 time, which was 5.05 seconds (ranked 16th among linemen in 2024).
Yet, this is still new data, so we’ll need more seasons of it to see if anything pops to projecting NFL success. It is just a nice luxury to have more numbers beyond the standard 40 times or bench press reps.
Positional Value Holding Serve for 2024 Class
The consensus read on this 2024 draft class has been that it is deep and impressive at wide receiver, corner, offensive line and the quarterbacks have a chance to be something special. It is not so hot at running back, tight end (outside of Georgia’s Brock Bowers), linebacker, safety or edge rusher.
For the most part, the scouting combine backed this up. The wide receivers and corners were stars. The offensive linemen showed a lot of talent as well. The quarterbacks really didn’t do much as the top 3 prospects (Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels) declined to participate in the drills. However, it was not a bad showing for J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr.
If there was a position that may have improved its stock on the whole, it would be running back. This is not one of those years where a running back is being touted as the “best since Adrian Peterson” like we see every few seasons only for it not to pan out like that.
Running Back Roulette
Last year it was Bijan Robinson, but this year, do not expect a running back to go in the top 40 picks, and that’s being generous.
Still, Louisville running back Isaac Guerendo at least made a name for himself by posting the 2nd-best athleticism score (99) at the whole combine according to Next Gen Stats. He did this by leading all backs in the 40 (4.33 seconds) and he had the highest vertical jump at 41.5”.
This performance could cement him as a mid or late-round pick, which isn’t always a bad thing at running back. Isiah Pacheco was only a 7th-round pick by the Chiefs in 2022 and he’s the starter for a back-to-back Super Bowl champion.
Florida State running back Trey Benson has been the top-ranked prospect by many draft experts this year. He did not disappoint at the combine, running the 40 in 4.39 seconds, the 3rd-fastest among backs this year. With Jonathon Brooks (Texas) not participating at the combine due to injury, Benson could have established himself as the 1st running back off the board in April.
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