NFL Pick: 2023 NFC West Winner – San Francisco 49ers (-170) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The NFC West has done a great job of sending multiple teams to the playoffs every year since 2018, and last year was no exception with the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks meeting in the wild-card round.
But the 49ers were 3-0 against Seattle last year, making the division race lopsided in the end. The 49ers have not won consecutive division titles since 2011-12, but they are favored to do so this year.
Quick Overview
Here are the current NFC West odds from BetOnline, a top-rated offshore sportsbook, for the 2023-24 NFL season:
- San Francisco 49ers (-170)
- Seattle Seahawks (+200)
- Los Angeles Rams (+900)
- Arizona Cardinals (+2200)
In an odd twist, the Rams may have the most stable quarterback situation with Matthew Stafford having won a Super Bowl just 2 seasons ago, but the talent edge is significantly favoring the 49ers right now. But what if Brock Purdy was a fluke?
We have our best bet to win the NFC West below.
San Francisco 49ers: The Biggest Favorite in the League?
Depending on which online sportsbook you use, the 49ers are right up there with the Chiefs for having the highest odds of any division winner right now.
It makes sense when you give Kyle Shanahan such a talented roster with:
- Christian McCaffrey
- Deebo Samuel
- George Kittle
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Trent Williams
- Nick Bosa
- Fred Warner
- Dre Greenlaw
- Talanoa Hufanga
McCaffrey could be even better this year after a full offseason after he was traded from Carolina during the season last year.
The only real question mark now is what happens at quarterback.
Most Valuable Position
Jimmy Garoppolo is in Las Vegas, so that insurance policy of having a proven veteran and winner in this system is gone. Before 2022, Shanahan’s record as coach with quarterbacks other than Garoppolo was 8-28, and then he lost the season opener to a Chicago team that would finish 3-14 with Trey Lance as the starter. Lance suffered a season-ending injury a week later, leaving his worth in doubt as he has not been able to prove much since the team traded a fortune to acquire him in 2021.
But after Garoppolo was injured and lost for the season, Brock Purdy changed everything about this narrative. Only draft nerds really knew about Mr. Irrelevant, the last pick of the 2022 draft. But Purdy would go on a historic run and win his first 7 starts while throwing multiple touchdowns in 7 straight games. His efficiency stats were very solid and the 49ers turned into an elite scoring offense to go along with a top defense.
Staying Healthy
But Purdy’s season was cut short in the worst way when he was injured in the NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia. Josh Johnson also left with a concussion, so the 49ers were stuck with trotting out Purdy, who could not throw with his elbow injury, and the 49ers lost big.
How good will Purdy be after surgery? He did not have the biggest arm to begin with. We know the system is still the system, and the 49ers have some of the best YAC receivers in the world. Rookie success is usually a great predictor for career success at quarterback, but Purdy’s success was off the charts for a late-round pick.
If Lance or veteran Sam Darnold end up having to start this year, are they going to get the Shanahan bump too, or is this team in trouble like he 8-29 record Shanahan had at the time of Lance’s injury last year?
Realistically, the medical procedure and clearance on Purdy should be trusted that he will be fine this year. Even if he starts to lose some games and have some rough moments, he is still in a fantastic position with this defense and skill players to win a lot of games. It may not be 13 again, but it likely will not take more than 10 or 11 games to win the NFC West in 2023.
Seattle Seahawks: Fade Geno?
Trusting a quarterback who had his breakout season in Year 10 is a hard sell, but Geno Smith’s career trajectory is anything but normal. He basically only had his 3rd real shot at starting in 2022, and he ran with it by leading the league in completion percentage (69.8%) and making the Pro Bowl with 30 touchdown passes.
But you have to be careful with a team like Seattle, which only made the playoffs as a No. 7 seed with a 9-8 record and below-average defense. Smith had to lead a pair of fourth-quarter comeback wins against the Rams late in the year when the Rams were missing the connection of Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp to score more points against a bad defense. Smith also had just 3 comeback wins in his career prior to last season, so this was never an area where he excelled with the game on the line.
Regression On the Horizon?
There was already a decline in Smith’s numbers late in the season that suggest he may not keep this up for another season. However, the skill players around him can get better in 2023 if Kenneth Walker stays healthy at running back, and the Seahawks used a 1st-round pick on wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who can be an excellent No. 3 wideout behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
The Seahawks still have one of the better head coaches in Pete Carroll, but his defense was not impressive last year. Throw in a quarterback with no track record of sustaining success and it feels like a team that can waffle around .500 again, but this time it may not be enough for the playoffs.
Scoring against the 49ers was also very difficult for Smith and the offense last year, and that will have to change if the team this season (Week 12 and Week 14) is to win the division.
Purdy had no problems in the playoffs in throwing for 332 yards and 3 touchdowns against this defense, the first rookie to do that in a playoff game since Sammy Baugh in 1937.
Los Angeles Rams: Any Shot?
The Rams certainly mortgaged the future to win their Super Bowl in 2021 with all the draft picks traded for veteran talent that is now gone, including Odell Beckham Jr. and Von Miller.
But few expected a 2022 so bad that the Rams would set a record for the worst title defense in NFL history with a 5-12 record. Injuries did the team no favors as Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp did not finish the season. The offensive line also took a major step back for the team, and that had a big impact on Stafford’s play. The losses of Beckham and Robert Woods also meant Kupp lacked another viable receiving teammate, making his production less impactful than in 2021 when he had arguably the best season ever at his position.
Can It Get Any Worse?
Aaron Donald is still elite, but many of his veteran teammates have left, including Bobby Wagner (back to Seahawks), Jalen Ramsey (Dolphins), and Leonard Floyd (Bills). The secondary is painfully young with mid-round picks from 2022 expected to start at most positions.
Sean McVay is still one of the best young coaches in the game, but last year was his worst work yet. His game management in a loss to Tampa Bay was especially poor at a time when the Rams could have gotten back into competing at 4-4. Instead, they lost 6 in a row to fall to 3-9.
A return to respectability would not be the shock of the NFL this season, but all the way back to the top of the division sure would be a stunner.
Arizona Cardinals: Dumpster Fire?
Expectations are so low for the Cardinals that their win total over/under (4.5) is a full 2 games lower than the other 31 teams in the NFL. This is what happens when you hire a marginal defensive coordinator from Philadelphia (Jonathan Gannon), Kyler Murray is recovering from a December torn ACL that could keep him out multiple games in 2023, and the Cardinals also lost top veterans such as J.J. Watt and DeAndre Hopkins.
It would be an absolute miracle for this team to go from 4-13 to winning the NFC West when the other teams and coaches are clearly on another level. Also, Colt McCoy could start a chunk of games and he is 0-22 as a starter when his team allows 20 points.
Frankly, the odds are probably not generous enough at +2200.
Final Thoughts
Most of the NFL’s division races have better betting value than the NFC West, but the 49ers should be one of the safest picks this season. The talent disparity between the 49ers and Seahawks is still significant, and the only hope there would be that Geno Smith is the quarterback who keeps up his 2022 level of play while the clock strikes midnight on Purdy.
But you should trust McCaffrey, Kittle, Samuel, Aiyuk and that defense to prop up whichever quarterback Shanahan has to play this season. If the Seahawks had a better defense, then maybe there would be some value to that pick, but the 49ers are simply too loaded on both sides of the ball to not expect them to have the best overall team again.
The Pick
Maybe a little hedge on the Rams (+900 at BetOnline) for your NFL picks would be worthwhile depending on the size of your San Francisco bet, but it feels like that streak of the NFC West sending multiple teams to the playoffs could end this year.
Only San Francisco will be left in the end.
NFL Pick: 2023 NFC West Winner – San Francisco 49ers (-170) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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