BMR Social
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- Apr 4, 2022
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By: Doug Upstone
The last Golf Major begins tomorrow and we have updated the odds of the Open Championship on the favorites and our selections for wagering purposes. There is a saying among long-time baseball announcers and writers who follow their teams daily – “Every day I see something I never have before.” That was definitely true last night as we explain.
This plus thoughts on NFL running backs not getting paid, free picks, and our increasingly famous - Fade or Follow – picks.
About Last Night…
MLB
It was truly an unfathomable night in baseball.
Let’s start with Atlanta on the RL last night. If you knew before the game started that the Braves would score 13 runs, how much would have been bet on Atlanta at -105? Final score - Arizona 16, Atlanta 13
The Cubs lost Monday to Washington 7-5 and were trailing 3-0 after two innings as -160 home favorites. Evidently, the Bears' Justin Fields was at Wrigley Field because the Bears, sorry, Cubs, scored the next 17 runs with two touchdowns and a field goal to win 17-3.
Pass the Maalox – The Mets (-130) were up 11-4 after six innings and hung on to escape the White Sox 11-10. Kansas City (+150) was ahead of Detroit 9-3 and 11-6 going into the ninth inning and clung to an 11-10 victory.
With Minnesota scoring twice in the 9th inning to defeat Seattle 10-3 last evening, 12 different teams scored 10 or more runs for the first time since May 30th, 1884, tying the record for the second-most in baseball. According to ESPN Stats and Info, the all-time record is 13 teams, done on July 4th 1894. Thus, this had never happened before in the modern baseball era that started in 1900.
We will close things out with these two sensational items.
Trendy Talk
MLB
- Washington is 9-1 (+13.6 Units) in road games after allowing 8 runs or more this season.
- Oakland is 5-38 in day games this season.
- N.Y. Yankees are 2-15 (-15.2 Units) vs. teams averaging 1.25 or more homers a game in the second half of the season since last year.
- Philadelphia is 15-2 Under after three or more consecutive wins.
- Chicago Cubs are 21-7 Over after two or more consecutive Overs.
- Kansas City is 11-1 Under after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more.
- N.Y. Mets are 3-18 against the run line in an inter-league game this season.
- Taijuan Walker and the Phillies are 14-4 vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game this season.
WNBA
- Indiana is 1-9 ATS off two covers where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog.
- Dallas is 7-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a 75% or higher win percentage.
CFL
- Winnipeg is 14-1 ATS in home games after gaining 350 or more passing yards in their last game. (Thursday)
- Hamilton is 4-14 ATS after two straight wins by 8 or less points. (Friday)
What to Watch for and Win (Hopefully)
MLB
It has been a curious start to this week in baseball. Learn what our MLB experts have cookin’ for Best Bets and more on the ML, and RL, along with totals and other free MLB picks.Golf
We have a complete breakdown of the last major of the year, The Open Championship. We have a full preview along with expert analysis and free picks!Soccer
FIFA Women's World Cup 2023 kicks off Thursday and we have free soccer picks & predictions for both Thursday and Friday action. Check it out!Football
We have posted our newest array of football articles for you to look through and prepare for the upcoming season. With it the middle of July, time to gear up for college and pro football with our weekly articles.The Buzz
Golf – Updated Odds (from Monday) to Win The Open Championship (from Bovada)
- Rory McIlroy +750 from +650
- Scottie Scheffler +750 same
- Jon Rahm +1400 same
- Cameron Smith +1800 from +1600
- Brooks Koepka +2000 to +1800
- Rickie Fowler +2200 to +2000
- Viktor Hovland +2200 to +2000
- Tommy Fleetwood +2500 same
- Patrick Cantlay +2800 to +2500
- Tyrrell Hatton +2800 to +2500
The Pulse Picks:
- Top 5 – Jon Rahm +225
- Top 10 – Scottie Scheffler -140 and Tyrrell Hatton +190
- Top 20 - Collin Morikawa +110
MLB – Possible Bonanza for Prop Players or Fantasy Bettors
Top Betting System
MLB – Giants vs. Reds (-107 ML)
Play Against Road teams like the Giants when the money line is +125 to -125, who score 4.7 or more runs per game, against an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 or higher, with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games. Clubs like San Francisco are 6-29 in this spot.
Out the Door
Soccer – Women’s World Cup Odds to Win it All
- USA +250
- Spain +420
- England +475
- Germany +800
- Australia +1000
- France +1200
MLB – Today's Biggest Line Move
At the time this went to post, the Astros had fallen from -170 to -150 over Colorado, likely because the Rockies' Austin Gomber has a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts compared to his season ERA of 6.19.
NFL – Not Paying Running Backs
This is a curious topic that has gone on for some time now. How many teams have advanced through the playoffs to reach and or win a Super Bowl without a respectable running game? When you are handicapping NFL football, do you ignore the running game stats?
I get running backs to take a beating and slow down to a degree after six seasons. But when a quarterback can no longer throw the deep ball accurately are they given a pay cut? Or wide receivers that were once deep threats slow enough to become more possession receivers, are they looked at with disdain? Running the ball is an essential aspect of winning football games for teams and bettors. The top backs deserve fair market value and not to be treated like commodities. Your thoughts are welcome.
What Bettors Like – Play or Fade?
MLB - Top 5 Bets by Percentage - Highest First (116-77 record, 19-7 of run)
- Tigers
- Braves
- Astros
- Cubs
- Brewers/Phillies Over
Let’s get some winners! See you back here Friday.
