In this match up today I could careless about KenPom rankings the least bit as Troy is ranked 127 to Texas St 197, throw that out the fuckin' window. I have ridden this Texas St. late impressive run a few times during this stretch as they go for 6 SU and ATS winners. These two teams met 8 days ago and Texas St. prevailed as a +175 dog at home to Troy. That was Troy's last game they played 8 days ago !!! Some may say their rested and ready, I say they will come out flat and out of rhythm , especially to a squad they just lost to & that is one of the hottest teams in the Sun Belt.
I say Texas St. wins this game outright as a +200 dog and sends Troy home for the season, but I'm taking the safer route and taking the +5.5 points at this neutral site. Troy has lost 3 of 4 ATS and I really just don't like this spot for them. I see the Texas St. defense being the difference factor today as they have held 3 out of their last 5 opponents to under 60 points. On paper it may look like Troy is the better defense, but not according to how these two teams are playing currently.
Take Texas St. plus the plus and good luck if you tail
I say Texas St. wins this game outright as a +200 dog and sends Troy home for the season, but I'm taking the safer route and taking the +5.5 points at this neutral site. Troy has lost 3 of 4 ATS and I really just don't like this spot for them. I see the Texas St. defense being the difference factor today as they have held 3 out of their last 5 opponents to under 60 points. On paper it may look like Troy is the better defense, but not according to how these two teams are playing currently.
Take Texas St. plus the plus and good luck if you tail
