Everyone Should Be On Washington St Tonight

[jjgold]

Foots

ML

 

[Wagerallsports]

Taking a look JJ

 

[Tanko]

Foots

ML

I hope you are right JJ.
You've been seeing the card clearly lately.

GL to us.

 

[Jrgum3]

ML yes but I think if you bet this one ATS you should take the points with Colorado. I like WSU to win this game but neither team is going to be able to stop the other so I think the 4.5 points is appealing. Personally I played the o62.5 because I see plenty of points in this one.

 

[fishhead]

GL GOLD

 

[harpo]

Agree with gum3

 

[BMR Genie]

Looks like the Prime effect is over.

 

[renegade]

Col roster is trash. They have a few good skill players but both of their lines are terrible. Sanders is always running for his life. Both teams going south fast

 

[KVB]

Foots

ML

Triggered Colorado in the UPSET Basket, albeit it's not the most advantageous bet in the Fund this week...

COLORADO +159

Sooooooo, in the mud you go...

 

[lekidecincinnati]

looks like a blowout

colorado alt line -9.5 +400

 

[KVB]

I think the market is developing into a situation where Colorado bettors are fine with the moneyline while Wash St bettors are taking the spread. We aren't there at every house, but there is evidence some of the market is heading that way.

Behavior like this can spread if it starts in the right place, and I think it might be.

 

[subaru80]

I think the market is developing into a situation where Colorado bettors are fine with the moneyline while Wash St bettors are taking the spread. We aren't there at every house, but there is evidence some of the market is heading that way.

Behavior like this can spread if it starts in the right place, and I think it might be.

So what would it matter tho? U end up taking Colorado +pts and wazzu ml to try and middle? Or are u just picking off slow to move numbers?

 

[fishhead]

GL GOLD

 

[KVB]

So what would it matter tho? U end up taking Colorado +pts and wazzu ml to try and middle? Or are u just picking off slow to move numbers?

I often make a move before the market does, so picking of slow to move numbers is secondary for a lot of my work. I can keep my risk alive at larger houses that way as well as many books you pick off will present a risk management challenge.

But that's not really the issue here. The issue would be in your opinion of the line or number. If you like -4, it could swell to -4.5.

But if you're losing margin at -4.5, then you might find some when you are converting to the moneyline.

By the same token, if you're looking for some value on the Colorado moneyline, you might find it's surpressed from action but that move to +4.5 might mean something when you convert.

But I don't think we're really getting that type of market here anymore.

 

[KVB]

In any case, Pinny dealing a no vig moneyline of -172 here, and you had to make early trades to beat that for Colorado St.

But it sure looks like the underdog side is stopping the moneyline rise making, perhaps a "truer no vig line" of around +160.

I triggered Colorado at +159, so it's acceptable for now. I may have pulled the trigger too soon today, though, and missed about .05 cents.

We'll see.

 

[KVB]

Colorado +pts and wazzu ml to try and middle

I would do this if I felt or concluded that both sides were +EV as it would just be two +EV bets.

But for the most part, apart from one type of trading strategy, I don't really sell a perceived +EV bet back with a perceived -EV bet, even if full arb. It can be better to hang onto the +EV one.

 

[pete0]

thank you JJ

 

[fiftycint]

Just wondering what The Carolina Kid would do....-180 I agree with uncle Fester

 

[jjgold]

Kickoff soon

 

[fishhead]

GL GOLD