MLB Best Bet: Phillies ML (-170) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have a typically full Friday card of Major League Baseball matchups with all 30 MLB teams in action. As usual, we are here with our three plays for the day that we feel hold the most betting value at the current MLB odds available at the top-rated sportsbooks.
These picks are mostly based on our proprietary model. Our first Friday best bet is at 06:40 PM ET, as our model shows nice value on a side in the White Sox vs. Phillies matchup.
For a thorough breakdown and preview of today’s MLB matchups, including Angels vs. Reds and Rays vs. Yankees, make sure to check out Bookmakers Review’s YouTube channel.
Don’t miss out on more daily picks from our experts:
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Friday, April 19, 2024 – 06:40 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park
We do not usually like betting on big money line favorites in any sport. But in this case, we feel the price is reasonable as Spencer Turnbull and the Phillies should have their way with Garrett Crochet and the lowly White Sox.
Excelling in New Environment
After spending the first five seasons of his career with losing Detroit Tigers teams, Turnbull is finding success in his first year with the Phillies. He owns a 1.80 ERA and 3.39 xFIP through three starts with a very nice strikeout rate of 9.60/9. He has displayed an improved arsenal of five pitches he can throw for strikes, which has impressively resulted in a higher soft-contact rate (25.6%) than a hard-contact rate (23.1%).
We see no reason why that success cannot continue against a woeful White Sox offense that ranks dead last in the Major Leagues in wRC+ at 67, or 33% below average. It is no wonder then that the White Sox have the worst record in baseball at 3-15. Furthermore, Spencer also has the support of a good Philadelphia bullpen ranked ninth in xFIP.
Bullpen Woes
Now, the young southpaw Crochet has probably been the highlight of the White Sox year so far. After being named the very surprising opening day starter, the youngster has responded with a 3.57 ERA, 2.37 xFIP and a terrific K/BB ratio of 12.31/1.59 per nine innings. The key for Garrett is that walk rate, as he had struggled with his control before this year and still has an ugly career walk rate of 4.14/9.
Crochet should also face resistance from a veteran Phillies lineup that thus far has performed significantly better against southpaws (105 wRC+) than against right-handers (80 wRC+). We feel that will result in an elevated pitch count. And once the Chicago bullpen gets involved, that unit is 28th out of 30 MLB teams with a 5.11 xFIP, only fractionally better than the two teams tied below them at 5.13.
MLB Best Bet
So, while we concede Crochet can be tough while he is on the mound, the Phillies are much better in every other area. We trust the Philadelphia offense to make Crochet’s night a short one and are betting the Phillies as big chalk.
Predicted Score: Phillies 6 – White Sox 2
MLB Best Bet: Phillies ML (-170) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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