MLB Best Bet: Mets ML (+174) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We have a typically full Friday card of Major League Baseball matchups with all 30 MLB teams in action. As usual, we are here with our three plays for the day that we feel hold the most betting value at the current MLB odds available at the top-rated sportsbooks.
And our final value bet for Friday comes in perhaps the most marquee game of the day. Our model likes a rather surprising side in the major-market matchup between the Mets and Dodgers at 10:10 PM ET.
For a thorough breakdown and preview of today’s MLB matchups, including Angels vs. Reds and Rays vs. Yankees, make sure to check out Bookmakers Review’s YouTube channel.
Don’t miss out on more daily picks from our experts:
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Friday, April 19, 2024 – 10:10 PM ET at Dodger Stadium
We see an upset in the making Friday night when Sean Manaea and the underdog Mets head out west to visit Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the Dodgers.
Great Support
Yes, Manaea was lit up last time out by the Royals for six earned runs in 3.2 innings after looking so good in his first two starts for the Mets. In fact, he had allowed a total of one run and four hits in 11 innings with 14 strikeouts before that stinker. Adding that all up, Manaea currently sits with a 4.30 ERA and 4.22 xFIP, not far off his career levels of 4.10 and 4.05 respectively.
Furthermore, Sean has a great strikeout rate of 11.05/9, and while that would be a career-high, he has had strikeout rates above 9.00 in three of the last five seasons. He also had one year at 8.89 during that span, so strikeouts are nothing new for Manaea.
But most importantly, he has the support of an excellent bullpen that has helped key the Mets’ 10-3 record since starting the year 0-5. That bullpen is ranked sixth in the majors in xFIP (3.52), first in raw FIP (2.76), fourth in ERA (2.62) and second in strikeout rate (11.15/9). And Manaea and the pen are facing a Dodgers’ offense prone to strikeouts, ranking 10th at 24.4%.
Another Short Outing?
Yamamoto scored a big contract with the Dodgers after having success in Japan, and after allowing five earned runs in one inning in his debut, he has looked the part his last three starts. He allowed a total of three runs and nine hits in those three outings with 19 strikeouts and three walks in 15 innings.
The concern with Yamamoto though is stamina, as he went exactly five innings in each of those three starts. And he is facing a Mets offense that is now up to 13th in runs scored at 4.83 runs per game after doing nothing the first five games. And that offense has been good fundamentally, ranking fifth in strikeout rate, eighth in walk rate and going 12-for-14 in stolen base attempts.
MLB Best Bet
The Mets are one of the hottest teams in baseball and they have the pitchers both in Manaea and the bullpen to take advantage of a strikeout-prone Dodgers offense. Thus, we are betting the Mets to upset at nice odds on Friday.
Predicted Score: Mets 5 – Dodgers 4
MLB Best Bet: Mets ML (+174) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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