Top UFL Pick: Battlehawks -3 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The UFL will complete half of its 2024 regular season with Week 5 action this Saturday and Sunday. The Birmingham Stallions look to make it a perfect 5-0 start while the game of the week is on Sunday between the St. Louis Battlehawks (3-1) and D.C. Defenders (2-2). That is a big game in the XFL conference.
Based on the current UFL odds provided by the top online sportsbooks, we picked out our favorite spreads and totals for Week 5 below.
St. Louis Battlehawks vs. D.C. Defenders
Sunday, April 28, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Audi Field
A couple of the top XFL teams will meet in D.C. this Sunday afternoon when the Defenders (2-2) host the Battlehawks (3-1). St. Louis won with relative ease last week, 32-17, against the Showboats. The Defenders came up just shy of upsetting the Stallions in a 20-18 loss.
But the Battlehawks are a 3-point road favorite with a total of 47 points. We are looking at the spread.
Battlehawks: A.J. McCarron’s Game Again
Last week, St. Louis quarterback A.J. McCarron took the game over for his team, completing 35-of-45 passes for 222 yards and 3 touchdowns. That’s a lot of dink and dunking, but it was effective as it led to 32 points and the offense held the ball for over 38 minutes. St. Louis was 9-of-15 on 3rd down while the Showboats were only 1-for-9.
It was one of the most dominant performances of the season as the Battlehawks outgained the Showboats 355-127 in yards.
McCarron took advantage of a bad pass defense in that game. He gets his shot at another bad one this week as the Defenders allow the 2nd-highest completion percentage (63.7%), the 2nd-most touchdown passes (7), and are tied for the most passing yards allowed (952).
Let’s not forget the Battlehawks can run the ball too. Even with McCarron putting the ball up 45 times last week, they still had 21 carries for 133 yards. Everything is clicking right now.
Defenders Came Close
The Defenders took a late 18-17 lead against the Stallions last week, but the defense was unable to stop Matt Corral on the final drive, leading to a 20-18 loss on a late field goal.
But the Defenders should feel confident despite the loss as they took the best team in the league head on and were that close to coming away with the win.
Unfortunately, they are going to match an underwhelming defense against what might be the hottest offense in the league right now with McCarron. The Defenders still aren’t as sharp as they were offensively a year ago when they could win shootouts better than anyone.
The Pick
This could be another tight game, but the dominance of St. Louis’ defense last week is encouraging that this team is building up a defense and running game to go along with a quarterback in McCarron who leads the UFL with 8 touchdown passes.
The Battlehawks could be the main challenger to the Stallions for the UFL championship. Winning a big game like this to improve to 4-1 in the XFL conference would help with that reputation as the biggest threat to Birmingham’s 3-peat.
UFL Pick: Battlehawks -3 (-110) at Bovada
Michigan Panthers vs. Memphis Showboats
Sunday, April 28, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
The Panthers (2-2) fell 19-9 to the Brahmas last week in a disappointing performance. The Showboats lost by 15 points in St. Louis to fall to 1-3.
The Showboats are a 2-point home favorite this week with a total of 41 points. We are looking at the total.
Michigan: Quarterback Injury?
Michigan quarterback E.J. Perry left last week’s 19-9 loss with a hamstring injury in the 3rd quarter. But after falling behind 16-3, it is hard to say if the outcome would have changed without that injury.
The offensive line was bullied all game long, which has been a common theme for the Michigan offense this year. Perry took 5 sacks and it could have been more if he didn’t have some mobility.
Backup quarterback Danny Etling finished the game and tried to mount a comeback, completing 11-of-14 passes for 105 yards and a touchdown. But he also had a pick and fumble.
It is not clear if Perry will be ready to play in this game or not. But no matter who is at quarterback, Michigan has some real protection problems up front that must be addressed somehow.
The only good news is Memphis (18) is the only team that’s taken more sacks than the Panthers (14) this season. Maybe we’ll watch a sack fest this weekend.
Showboats Not Showing Much
There was some hope for the Memphis offense this year with Case Cookus getting his shot as a preseason NFL darling to lead the team. But things have just not worked out at all so far, and Week 4 may have been the lowest point yet.
The Showboats threw for just 60 net passing yards in a 32-17 loss to the Battlehawks. They actually had more rushing yards (67) in the game.
On the season, Memphis is averaging a pathetic 4.7 yards per pass, more than a full yard lower than the next worst team. It’s not like the running game is something they can lean on either as they average 3.1 yards per carry, tied for the bottom of the league as well.
This is why Memphis has scored just 68 points, which only puts them 2 points ahead from sitting alone at the bottom of the UFL in scoring right now.
The Pick
Combine the struggles at the offensive line with a potential backup quarterback starting for Michigan, and we’ll take the under in this game as it would be very easy to see neither team crack 20 points again. The Showboats have not scored 20 points in any game this year. The Panthers only did it once in that 34-point explosion in Week 3 that looks like the outlier of the season.
These teams are in the bottom 3 in scoring for a reason, and it starts up front and also extends to the quarterback position.
UFL Pick: Under 41 (-110) at Bovada
Birmingham Stallions vs. Houston Roughnecks
Saturday, April 27, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Rice Stadium
The Stallions (4-0) narrowly got past the Defenders in a 20-18 game last week, but they remain perfect on the season for their title defense. The Roughnecks (1-3) finally got their first win of the season, shutting down Arlington in a 17-9 game.
But this week, the Stallions are a 7.5-point road favorite with a total of 43 points. Does Birmingham see 5-0 in convincing fashion? We are looking at the spread.
Birmingham Comes Up Clutch
Check another box off for the Stallions. We already knew they had a great running game, a great defense, and they’ve shown they can succeed with just about any quarterback under center.
But last week, they showed they can get the job done in crunch time on offense as well with Matt Corral, who did not start in Week 3, leading the team to a game-winning field goal with 4 seconds left to maintain their perfect record. Props to the field goal unit too and kicker Ramiz Ahmed for making the 46-yard field goal.
It was the win with the most adversity for the Stallions this season, but every team needs to go through those experiences to prove they can execute when the game is on the line.
It was still a sound performance overall with the Stallions racking up 356 yards and 21 first downs. Corral did a good job in his return to the starting lineup, completing 19-of-29 passes for 240 yards and a touchdown with no picks.
Roughnecks Get Defensive Help
The Roughnecks can thank their defense for their 1st win of the season. They held Arlington, a good offense with quarterback Luis Perez, to just 9 points last week. Perez was only 15-of-28 for 144 yards, and he was intercepted while taking a few sacks.
The run defense also came up big, holding the Renegades to 40 yards on 18 carries. No run gained more than 7 yards.
Houston’s offense was serviceable enough behind quarterback Reid Sinnett, who threw for 191 yards and a touchdown without any picks. But the story of the game was that Houston's defense held the Renegades to 193 yards and only allowed 1 touchdown.
Houston’s defense will have to play at that kind of level to slow down the versatile Stallions, who lead the league in yards per game with over 60 yards more than the next closest offense.
The Pick
Good on the Roughnecks to win last week, but Birmingham is a whole different challenge. The Stallions average 369.8 yards per game to just 241.0 for Houston, a huge difference. Look for Birmingham to play good defense against one of the weakest offenses in the UFL, and the offense will put up its share of points again to cover the spread.
UFL Pick: Stallions -7.5 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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