Top UFL Pick: Stallions -11.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Halfway through the UFL’s 2024 season, we may be building towards a showdown between the Birmingham Stallions (5-0) of the USFL and the St. Louis Battlehawks (4-1) of the XFL.
With respect to the 4-1 Brahmas, these 2 teams are distancing themselves from the pack with high-scoring differentials and impressive play on a weekly basis. While they won’t meet this week, they are big double-digit favorites based on the current UFL odds at the top-rated sportsbooks this week.
We chose our favorite spreads and totals for Week 6 below. For additional sports betting options, check out our YouTube channel.
San Antonio Brahmas vs. D.C. Defenders
Sunday, May 05, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at Audi Field
The San Antonio Brahmas (4-1) may be flying under the radar a bit, but they put together a solid 25-15 win against Arlington last week. As for the Defenders (2-3), it was a 45-12 dusting at home by the Battlehawks in the team’s worst performance over the last 2 seasons.
We’ll see if D.C. can rebound. The Brahmas are a 1-point road favorite in by far the tiniest spread of the week. The total is 42.5 points, but we are looking at the spread again.
San Antonio’s Shaky Offensive Performance
The Brahmas were victorious last week, but 3 early interceptions from quarterback Quinten Dormady led to them needing to put things away in the 4th quarter in a 25-15 win over winless Arlington. The Brahmas moved the ball well, but those picks hurt, and they were fortunate the defense only allowed 3 points from the turnovers.
Dormady has not been a pick machine in the past, so hopefully he got a bad game out of his system. His running game still stepped up with 178 yards on the ground, a great showing there.
The Defenders have not been the greatest at stopping the run, but it’s the passing game where they really struggle. No pass defense has allowed more yards (1,137) than the Defenders, so this could be a big game for Dormady to get back on track.
The Brahmas should also continue to be aggressive in this game and not get concerned about the picks last week. San Antonio is 8-of-11 on 4th down this year, the most attempts and conversions in the league.
Defenders Bottom Out
Let’s hope last week was the bottom for the Defenders with Jordan Ta’amu tossing 3 picks and barely throwing for 100 yards in a 45-12 rout at home. The Defenders, after having the best offense in the XFL last year, are now dead last in 1st downs in the UFL.
The running game is certainly not up to par from last year, but the passing game has taken a nosedive from 2023. The Defenders are completing just 51.3% of their passes, which is abysmal for any professional level of football in 2024. Every other UFL offense is completing at least 57.1% of their passes.
The Defenders are also averaging 5.5 yards per pass, which ranks next to last in the league. The only good news is the Defenders have taken just 9 sacks. However, the Brahmas have taken a league-low 5 sacks this season.
The Pick
D.C. should not get blown out as badly as last week, but it is hard to trust this team to win right now. Despite their 4-1 record, the Brahmas are not on the same level as the Stallions and Battlehawks right now. But they have been playing winning football and could lay claim to being the 3rd-best team in the league this year.
We’ll trust them to win on the road and cover for your UFL picks.
UFL Pick: Brahmas -1 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Birmingham Stallions vs. Memphis Showboats
Saturday, May 04, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
The Stallions were dominant in Houston last week in a 32-9 win to improve to 5-0. The Showboats (1-4) lost another as they fell 35-18 at home to a Michigan team that started a backup quarterback.
Birmingham is an 11.5-point road favorite with a total of 43 points. We are looking at that big spread, which would have been the biggest of the 2024 UFL season if not for the next game this Saturday.
Birmingham Can Pick and Choose at Quarterback
While most teams are trying to find a good quarterback, the Stallions have 2. Maybe it’s just the system because it seems like anyone who steps in for Skip Holtz’s team does well.
Last week it was Adrian Martinez’s turn against the Roughnecks. He threw for 155 yards and a touchdown, but he was even more dynamic as a runner with 9 carries for 138 yards. His longest run was 34 yards, so he was consistently picking up chunks on the ground as the offense rolled up 32 points in another big win.
In all, the Stallions piled up 213 rushing yards and 3 scores on the ground. This is bad news for a Memphis run defense that allows 4.7 yards per carry, the 2nd-highest average in the UFL this season. They’ve also allowed a league-high 9 rushing touchdowns and have been the worst run defense at forcing carries for a loss with just 12 on the season.
The Stallions could run all over this team, or they could throw with either quarterback they have. They are rolling.
Memphis Can’t Stop Turning It Over
Turnovers were a killer for the Showboats last week as they turned it over 4 times in their 35-18 loss to Michigan. We mentioned the bad run defense above, and they did allow 160 yards on the ground last week.
But they also let a backup quarterback (Danny Etling) play well with 14-of-21 passing for 175 yards. That’s better than 8.0 yards per pass, and the big-play Stallions could certainly do something like that in this game.
The Pick
This has a high potential for a blowout. The Stallions lead the UFL with a plus-64 scoring differential while the Showboats have been outscored by 46 points, the worst in the league, and have lost 4 games in a row.
We’ll take the Stallions in another rout to cover the spread for your UFL picks to kick off Week 6.
UFL Pick: Stallions -11.5 (-115) at BetOnline
Houston Roughnecks vs. St. Louis Battlehawks
Saturday, May 04, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at The Dome at America’s Center
The St. Louis Battlehawks (4-1) left little doubt who the top team on the XFL side of the league is with a 45-12 rout of the Defenders last week. Meanwhile, the Roughnecks were stomped 32-9 by the best team in the USFL, the Stallions.
This sets up another huge spread as the Battlehawks are a 12-point home favorite with a total of 47 points. We are looking at that spread too.
Battlehawks: A.J. McCarron Has a Defense Too
The Battlehawks were expected to do well offensively against D.C. last week behind quarterback A.J. McCarron, who did not disappoint with 213 yards and 2 touchdowns. His running game also chipped in 3 scores with former NFL back Wayne Gallman scoring once. Hakeem Butler was dominant at wide receiver with 147 yards and 2 touchdown catches.
But even more impressive was the St. Louis defense, which has been steadily improving. Not only did the unit hold D.C. to 12 points, but it intercepted Jordan Ta’amu 3 times and held him to just 101 passing yards with a few sacks too. The running game was also contained with 30 carries for 84 yards.
St. Louis now leads the UFL with 6 defensive interceptions. Imagine how good things can get if the fumble luck turns their way as they’ve only recovered 1-of-2 forced fumbles through Week 5.
The Battlehawks have overtaken Birmingham for the No. 1 total defense, holding teams to an average of 223.4 yards per game. It’s a pretty good combo when you combine that defensive prowess with a league-high scoring average of 30.2 points per game.
Houston’s Rough Year
The schedule is not kind to Houston. Last week it was Birmingham and now it’s a road trip to St. Louis, a team as hot as anyone. Meanwhile, Houston scores a league-low 15.2 points per game, which is basically half of what the Battlehawks average this year.
The Roughnecks are No. 6 in yards gained and dead last in rushing yards. On the other side, the Battlehawks average 4.9 yards per carry, which is as good as any offense in the league. They know how to be balanced while the Roughnecks only combine a terrible running game with a below-average passing game.
Houston also doesn’t sustain drives well to keep McCarron off the field. The Roughnecks convert 35.6% on 3rd down, next to last in the UFL.
The Pick
The Battlehawks are surging right now and should put up a nice point total at home against a below-average defense. But let’s not discount the improved St. Louis defense against such a poor Houston offense. That could be the matchup that helps the Battlehawks cover even if it’s a lower-scoring game at 27-13.
UFL Pick: Battlehawks -12 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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