Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for Game 1 between Minnesota and Denver. For your best bets, I recommend a same-game parlay: Nuggets ML & “under.”
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game 1 Parlay
- Nuggets ML (-180)
- Under 209 (-105)
NBA Pick: Two-Team Parlay (+204) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
Saturday, May 04, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Ball Arena
Game 1 Trend
I like Denver tonight because of its strong track record in Game 1. Dating to the last postseason, the Nuggets have begun every series with a 1-0 lead. Last year, in Game 1, they beat the Timberwolves by 29, the Suns by 18, the Lakers by 6 and the Heat by 11.
They continued this trend when, this year, they beat the Lakers by 11 in what would be the game with the largest margin of victory in that series. Last year saw the closest Game 1, with Denver beating the Lakers by 6. The Lakers required 40 points from Anthony Davis and an 11-out-of-25 effort from three to come that close.
As bad as the Nuggets have looked this postseason, they still triumphed in Game 1.
This is a very confident Nuggets team that, in part, is not exerting too much more effort than it needs to. The defending champs possess the confidence to come from behind, such that they comfortably spend a lot of time trailing but still win games.
Adjustment Needed
Minnesota is going to have trouble, especially at first, going from facing a mentally weak Phoenix team that was not so much a team as a collection of individual players with poor interior defense, to facing the defending champion Nuggets. The Nuggets play well together. They’re tough. And they play defense.
Minnesota had it pretty easy in their last series, in which they swept the Suns, with three of their wins coming by double digits. Denver, besides everything else, is much better coached than Phoenix, so the Nuggets will come prepared.
Three-Pointers
Tonight, Denver will edge out Minnesota on the strength of its three-point shooting.
The Nuggets will shoot more efficiently because they are due to do so. Last series, they converted just 29.8 percent of their wide-open three-point attempts and 26.3 percent of their open ones. They fell behind the Timberwolves drastically in both statistics.
Over time, one expects teams to shoot percentages that reflect their ability. Denver is one of the more efficient teams from behind the arc, especially at home, where they shoot 38.4-percent from deep, which would put Denver in fourth place in three-point shooting percentage if this were an overall (instead of just home) statistic. Expect Denver’s offense to be at its best in Game 1 of this series.
In this series, Denver’s lack of depth is a concern against what is an impressively deep Minnesota team. However, the Nuggets, who have not played since Monday, are well-rested and as fresh as can be right now.
Jamal Murray’s Decline
While three-point shooting will favor the Nuggets, this is still an offense that will fail to score enough points to help the game go “over.”
Jamal Murray, perhaps his calf more precisely, shoulders blame for this. Playing through a calf injury, he is not himself: his efficiency this postseason is worse than it had ever been in previous postseasons.
Key Defenders
Minnesota is going to do a better job defensively in this series than last series because of the experience it gained and because it has the personnel to succeed.
The key defender is Jaden McDaniels, who gave Devin Booker and Bradley Beal so much trouble last series. Minnesota missed him in this series last year because he was injured.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker, with his physical style of defense, did a great job limiting the efficiency of a healthy Murray last season. Minnesota gave him a big boost in minutes toward the end of the series last year, so expect him to play a significant role from the start.
Another key defender is Mike Conley with his toughness and especially his screen navigation. I imagine that he’ll stick to sharpshooter Michael Porter Jr., a significant catch-and-shoot threat who likes to use screens.
Karl-Anthony Towns is another key defender. He will likely be tasked with containing Nikola Jokic. Jokic loves to be a facilitator. While he’s a dangerous scorer and high-level rebounder, he is often looking to get his teammates going.
Perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate center Rudy Gobert occupying the roamer role for Minnesota will make things all the more difficult for Jokic’s teammates around the basket.
Denver’s Defense
Make no mistake that Denver also has a host of excellent defenders, with Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope worth highlighting.
The Nuggets have the defensive personnel to bother teams along the perimeter, but they’ll also put bodies in front of the basket in order to collect rebounds and limit inside scoring.
Takeaway
This will be a high-level defensive affair in which both teams struggle to sniff 100.
Both teams have so many good defenders to match up against the other offense, and both teams are also so well-coached.
Denver’s three-point shooting is going to make the difference. As the defending champions, the Nuggets continue to find a way to start their series off 1-0.
NBA Pick: Two-Team Parlay (+204) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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