Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for Game 5 between the Mavericks and Thunder. For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Mavericks.
For more of our betting analysis, check out:
And if you’re looking for even more value picks, make sure to visit our YouTube channel. Today, our expert has the best analysis on Tuesday’s Pacers vs. Knicks and Wednesday’s Mavericks vs. Thunder games.
NBA Pick: Mavericks +4.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 – 09:30 PM ET at Paycom Center
Dallas’ Defense
Dallas is a 4.5-point underdog because it is playing on the road. However, the Mavericks have shown throughout these playoffs, as when they held the Clippers to 93 points twice and when they beat the Thunder by nine, that their tough defense travels. One indeed says that “defense travels.”
The Mavericks have improved tremendously on defense this season because they have a very good perimeter defender in Derrick Jones Jr., excellent rim protection that is allowing the fewest field goals and the lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket in these playoffs, and at least one big in Daniel Gafford who is comfortable guarding along the perimeter and in space.
Defensively, Dallas has done a great job against Chet Holmgren, limiting him despite his versatility. Partly for this reason, the Mavericks held OKC to 101 points in Game 3 before holding the Thunder to 100 points in Game 4 despite Luguentz Dort having his best playoff game this season. I just don’t see how OKC scores much at all outside of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
My point here is that Dallas’ consistently solid defense will carry over to Game 5, and yet the Mavericks are dogged because they are the road team.
Luka and Kyrie
Dallas stayed within four of the Thunder in Game 4 despite Luka Doncic being off offensively.
However, Doncic is excellent at bouncing back after such an inefficient performance, as evident in Game 2 of this series and Game 4 of last series. He is so hard to keep off his spots. His mid-range game remains excellent, and he might shoot well from three again on top of that. It’s hard to contain him in consecutive times. He is, after all, an elite scorer.
Kyrie Irving, in Game 4, disappeared again, although we’ve seen him succeed consistently as an efficient scorer whose quickness off the bounce and other traits make him dangerous, especially with defenses often haplessly focusing on Luka. Game 1 in this series and his last series showed what he can do.
Dallas’ Offense
The Mavs have too much physicality inside especially with their stronger bigs dealing with the skinny Holmgren. P.J. Washington will continue his coming out party, not least because the Mavs have so many good scorers to defend. He is a versatile scorer who is sizzling from deep.
Luka and Kyrie, in sum, have an excellent supporting cast, whereas Dallas’ toughness on defense is too much for everybody besides OKC’s one significant scorer to overcome.
Their free throw shooting, which was absurdly bad on Monday, will also improve.
NBA Pick: Mavericks +4.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
