The top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for Game 4 between Minnesota and Phoenix and, for your NBA best bets, I will recommend investing in the Timberwolves tonight.
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NBA Best Bet: Timberwolves ML (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Phoenix Suns
Sunday, April 28, 2024 – 09:30 PM ET at Footprint Center
Explaining Phoenix’s Defense
It might seem tempting to look at Phoenix’s defensive numbers late in the regular season and to want to expect the Suns to improve in this series.
The Suns began realizing their potential after suffering a blowout loss to the Clippers on January 8. But their defense really began to take shape in the final month of the regular season. In April, the Suns ranked fourth in defensive rating.
The key is that Phoenix, during that period, showed the best that it could do defensively. And yet, even then, problems were perceptible that are making a difference now.
Two key problems are the following.
Point-of-Attack Defense
One, they lack a good point-of-attack defender. On defense, the Suns never improved, at least to a meaningful extent, at the point of attack.
This is why guards like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for the Thunder and Jayson Tatum for the Celtics could have more success against the Suns’ defense than against other teams. Those are guards who will run into trouble, relatively speaking, when they encounter a strong point-of-attack defender.
Phoenix’s lack of one has been a problem in this series as Anthony Edwards for Minnesota has been thriving at the point of attack. Royce O’Neale was supposed to be a valuable acquisition for the Suns, as a wing defender who should contain the opposing team’s top player.
But he doesn’t have the speed or general ability to contain a young star like Edwards.
Lack of Depth
Phoenix, in this series, is getting bested by Minnesota’s depth of scoring talent.
The Timberwolves’ depth means that a couple of players can struggle, such as Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns did in Minnesota’s Game 2 win, and the team will still win because other guys will step up.
During the later part of the regular season, when Phoenix’s defense was improved overall, the Suns still struggled against deeper teams. For example, Celtics and Thunder are two of the teams that relied on their depth to overwhelm Phoenix’s defense.
A Third Problem
Phoenix’s defense has in many respects lacked the sharpness of its better regular season days. An example is when Drew Eubanks ran into Kevin Durant as the latter was trying to recover him, allowing his man to attempt an uncontested shot.
Even if the Suns are showing their best sharpness at times, they are failing to put things together for four quarters, which again points to their lack of depth.
Phoenix Needs Creation
Phoenix is built on the strength of its scorers. However. they need to find and make tough shots in isolation. But the Timberwolves are wearing down the Suns’ scorers on both ends of the court. They also have too many good on-ball defenders and a team defense that is too strong.
Devin Booker and Bradley Beal are having trouble being efficient when guarded by Jaden McDaniels or Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
Kevin Durant has struggled against perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Rudy Gobert.
The Timberwolves also have a strong defense in general, one that can also turn defense into offense by taking advantage of Phoenix’s lack of a point guard, which makes the team lack creativity and ball security.
Minnesota’s Offensive Improvement
Whereas the Suns improved defensively overall but not in key respects, the Timberwolves have improved a lot offensively and are benefiting from this improvement.
In April, a Minnesota offense once known to be the source of the team’s troubles ranked seventh in offensive rating. Since Karl-Anthony Towns went down, the unit became stronger overall.
Anthony Edwards is playing smarter and more poised, making better decisions. No matter how many defensive adjustments the Suns make, he is finding holes and exploiting opportunities.
Also, the offense in general shows more ball movement and is more dynamic.
NBA Best Bet
Minnesota is especially taking advantage of center Jusuf Nurkic‘s characteristic lack of foot speed and Phoenix’s overall vulnerable interior defense, radically increasing the rate at which the Suns allow field goal conversions, especially within five to nine feet from the basket.
The Timberwolves haven’t been all that great from behind the arc, yet they don’t need to be while they control spaces near the basket.
NBA Best Bet: Timberwolves ML (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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