Thunder vs. Mavericks Game 4 NBA Best Bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Is Well-Prepared

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Chet Holmgren #7 of the Oklahoma City Thunder reaches for a dunk between Luka Doncic #77 and Derrick Jones Jr. #55 of the Dallas Mavericks during the first quarter in Game Three of the Western Conference Second Round Playoffs at American Airlines Center on May 11, 2024. Tim Heitman/Getty Images/AFP

Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for Game 4 between the Thunder and Mavericks so, for your best bets, I’ll recommend investing in the Thunder.

NBA Best Bet: Thunder ML (+110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Thunder ML (+110)
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks

Monday, May 13, 2024 – 10:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 

Oklahoma City’s young mega-talent experienced a learning lesson in Game 3.

Whereas veteran Kyrie Irving showed composure down the stretch, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander bricked shots, made bad passes, and cost his team points by foul-baiting. In a close game, specifically in a close fourth quarter, Gilgeous-Alexander is going to show more composure.

He had a terrific game overall, scoring 31 points, but his inexperience down the stretch cost his team the game and the cover. My point is that he can clearly succeed against this Mavs defense. He just needs to learn from what transpired in the final stages of Game 3.

More Offense 

A higher shooting volume from Chet Holmgren, whose versatility should bother Dallas’ defense, should lead him to replicate his Game 1 scoring output. Aaron Wiggins and Cason Wallace have been effective in this series, so one should expect more from them.

Dallas misses the defensive depth that it could have if it retained Reggie Bullock and Dorian Finney-Smith, whereas a guy like Josh Green, whose defensive rating is terrible, gets more playing time now but suffers a negative outlook given OKC’s defensive depth.

On top of everything else, we can still hope for another Thunder three-point shooting barrage, given the team’s number-one ranking in three-point shooting percentage.

Dallas’ Scorers 

Dallas barely covered despite a masterclass performance from PJ Washington, who led the team in scoring.

With Luka Doncic having to deal with Lu Dort‘s tough on-ball defense, Kyrie Irving has to deal with another Thunder defender who’s received All-NBA Defensive Team votes in Gilgeous-Alexander.

I find that OKC has too many good defenders for Dallas to handle.

The Thunder nearly covered the spread in Game 3 despite underachieving in the turnover and rebounding departments. Their rebounding should not be as bad, and they can fix the turnover issue.

Specifically, they just need to believe more in themselves and stop hesitating so much.

NBA Best Bet

They are passing up good shooting opportunities and, in doing so, giving Dallas’ defense more life.

One has to expect them to bring more concentrated energy after losing Game 3. They are, statistically speaking, reliable winners after a loss.

NBA Best Bet: Thunder ML (+110) at BetOnline

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Thunder ML (+110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product