NBA Finals Best Bet for June 19: Can OKC Win the Championship Tonight?

Thunder Dominates Game 5

The Oklahoma City Thunder won the pivotal Game 5 by a margin. Not only did they win, they covered the 9.5-point spread with a 120-109 victory. Jalen Williams scored 40 points to lead the Thunder, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 31 in the Thunder’s victory. The Thunder’s elite defense was on display once again, and the Thunder made every shot that the Pacers attempted a tough one. However, it is quite possible to see the Pacers bounce back tonight even without their best player.

Both teams were in this situation earlier in the playoffs. The Thunder had a 3-2 lead when they traveled to Denver in the Western Conference semifinals for Game 6. The Thunder were not able to get the closeout on the road and needed to go back home in order to finish the series. Will that same thing happen tonight?

The Pacers and Haliburton’s Health

The biggest story around this game is the status of Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton. Haliburton has been battling injuries this series. First, he rolled his ankle in Game 2, and then a strained right calf in Game 4 severely limited his production in Game 5. Haliburton did not make a field goal attempt and finished with only four points. Haliburton had an MRI scheduled, but the results are not being released, and he is listed as a game-time decision for tonight.

I am projecting this game as if Haliburton will miss the game. A strained calf injury usually takes at least 3 weeks for a grade 1 and six weeks for a grade 2 to heal. It is highly unlikely Haliburton will be able to get out there and make a positive contribution with his injury. Also, playing with a calf strain can lead to potential Achilles problems, and the Pacers would be wise not to push their star out on the floor when he is so vulnerable to a much larger injury.

McConnell Must Step Up

If the Pacers are to take the floor without Tyrese Haliburton, the Pacers will be reliant on TJ McConnell, who had an excellent Game 5. McConnell scored 14 points, with four rebounds and 4 assists in just 21 minutes. McConnell could put up even better numbers if getting a full complement of minutes tonight. In fact, watching the game, the Pacers probably would have had a better chance of coming back and getting the victory if they had left McConnell in the game. It is safe to say that a healthy McConnell is a better player than this injured version of Tyrese Halliburton.

With Haliburton most likely to miss the game, a major onus for the Pacers falls on Pascal Siakam. Siakam has been excellent for the Pacers and is coming off a 28 point performance in Game 5. The Pacers will need even more from Siakam and the offense will be running through him. The Pacers will also be looking for more contributions from Andrew Nembhard, who has been solid so far this postseason.

Key Matchup: Chet Holmgren vs Pascal Siakam

Chet Holmgren has been a key to the Oklahoma City Thunder’s versatile defense. Holmgren is tall enough to protect the rim but yet has the agility to get out on the floor and guard wings.

With the Pacers expected to be reliant on Pascal Siakam so much for this game, how Chet Holmgren is able to cover Siakam will be a huge key. If Holmgren is able to slow Siakam down and keep him shooting contested shots, the Thunder will become the new NBA champions.

If Siakam is able to use his veteran guile and overwhelming strength to get to his spots and get easy baskets, the Pacers can stay alive and force a Game 7.

The Pick

While “superstar subtraction” (betting on a team missing its best player) is usually a regular-season theory, I think it will fit here once again.

The Pacers were definitely hampered by the fact that Haliburton was not his regular self out there, and getting more minutes from McConnell will help this team. McConnell has shown a knack for getting to the rim and doing what it takes to help his team win.

Although it’ll be rough for the Pacers to see their team leader on the bench, I think they have enough depth combined with their excellent home-court advantage to be able to keep this game close. The Thunder might lift the trophy tonight, but we’re in for an exciting game. Take the points with the Indiana Pacers.

NBA Pick: Pacers +6.5 (-110) at Bookmaker 

Pacers +6.5 (-110)

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