And so it begins. The NBA Playoffs tipped off with a bang over the weekend and it seems teams with home-court advantage will have an easier time in the first round of the postseason. Favorites, which were all at home, won and covered the spread on Saturday. On Sunday, all the teams on the road lost, although the Pelicans did manage to cover the spread.
Let’s go ahead and take a look at the updated 2024 NBA Championship odds at the top-rated online sportsbooks, as well as go over some of the matchup information.
As for your best bets, I will recommend wagering on the Clippers. If you want further analysis, check out our YouTube Channel, as Donnie Rightside also talked about the Nuggets and the 76ers a couple of weeks ago, however, his analysis is still relevant.
NBA Pick: L.A. Clippers (+1400) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Current NBA Championship Odds
NBA Playoffs Matchups
Wednesday
- Game 2: #8 Heat vs. #1 Celtics (BOS Leads 1-0) – 07:00 PM ET (ESPN)
- Game 2: #8 Pelicans vs. #1 Thunder (OK Leads 1-0)- 09:30 PM ET (TNT)
Tuesday
- Game 2: #6 Suns vs. #3 Timberwolves (MIN Leads 1-0) – 07:30 PM ET (TNT)
- Game 2: #6 Pacers vs. #3 Bucks (MIL Leads 1-0) – 08:30 PM ET (ESPN)
- Game 2: #5 Mavericks vs. #4 Clippers (LAC Leads 1-0) – 10:00 PM ET (TNT)
Monday
- Game 2: #5 Magic vs. #4 Cavaliers (CLE Leads 1-0) – 07:00 PM ET (ESPN)
- Game 2: #7 76ers vs. #2 Knicks (NYK Leads 1-0) – 07:30 PM ET (ESPN)
- Game 2: #7 Lakers vs. #2 Nuggets (DEN Leads 1-0) – 10:00 PM ET (TNT)
Sunday
- Game 1: #8 Heat 94 vs. #1 Celtics 114 – 01:00 PM ET (ESPN)
- Game 1: #5 Mavericks 97 vs. #4 Clippers 109 – 03:30 PM ET (ESPN)
- Game 1: #6 Pacers 94 vs. #3 Bucks 109 – 07:00 PM ET (ESPN)
- Game 1: #8 Pelicans 92 vs. #1 Thunder 94 – 09:30 PM ET (TNT)
Saturday
- Game 1: #5 Magic 83 vs. #4 Cavaliers 97 – 01:00 PM ET (ESPN)
- Game 1: #6 Suns 95 vs. #3 Timberwolves 120 – 03:30 PM ET (ESPN)
- Game 1: #7 76ers 104 vs. #2 Knicks 111 – 06:00 PM ET (ESPN)
- Game 1: #7 Lakers 103 vs. #2 Nuggets 114 – 08:30 PM ET (TNT)
Play-In Tournament Matchups
Tuesday (Western Conference)
- #8 Lakers 110 vs. #7 Pelicans 106 – 07:30 PM ET (Watch on TNT)
- #10 Warriors 94 vs. #9 Kings 118 – 09:30 PM ET (Watch on TNT)
Wednesday (Eastern Conference)
- #8 Heat 104 vs. #7 76ers 105 – 07:00 PM ET (Watch on ESPN)
- #10 Hawks 116 vs. #9 Bulls 131 – 09:30 PM ET (Watch on ESPN)
Friday
- Bulls 91 vs. Heat 112 – 07:00 PM ET (ESPN)
- Kings 98 vs. Pelicans 105 – 09: 30 PM ET (TNT)
Teams That Have Declined
Phoenix Suns
At BetOnline on February 19, the Suns were listed at +1200 to win the championship. Now, on April 15, they are listed at +2800.
Why did this change, suggestive of a team decline, take place, and what sense should we make of it?
On February 19, the Suns were 33-22. They went into the playoffs at 49-33. The decline in odds is a consequence of several losses that they’ve experienced down the road, including some bad ones.
For example, they lost at home to Houston and at San Antonio. To me, the change in odds still feels steep and somewhat unmerited because they’ve also shown significant team potential. They’ve won at Denver twice and defeated both Cleveland and Minnesota.
Los Angeles Clippers
On February 19, the Clippers were listed at BetOnline at +500 to win the title. Currently, they are listed at +1400.
While this change isn’t as significant as Phoenix’s, it is still noteworthy especially in comparison with more favored teams.
On February 19, the Clippers were an impressive 36-17. They went into the playoffs at 51-31.
From February 25 to March 25, they experienced a slump during which their record was 7-8. While they faced a lot of good teams during that stretch of time, they normally failed to beat those teams, which suggested at that time their inability to compete for the championship. They also lost at home to Atlanta by 17.
However, they seem to be figuring things out again. They’ve won six of their last seven, defeating Denver and Cleveland in the process.
Kawhi Leonard has been injured with right knee inflammation, but it seems like his return is a mere day-to-day matter.
Winning without him is impressive, as he obviously adds a boost to their team when he is healthy.
Minnesota Timberwolves
On February 19, BetOnline had Minnesota at +1600 to win the championship. The Timberwolves are now listed at +2000.
On February 19, they were 39-16. However, they finished with a 56-26 record. The change in odds is a bit baffling from a record standpoint.
Karl-Anthony Towns’ injury, which is a big deal, likely makes sense for the change. He is trying to recover from surgery on his left meniscus.
While it makes sense to worry about the health of this key starter, he reportedly has a decent chance of returning before the regular season ends. Minnesota will depend heavily on his offense in the postseason.
Takeaway From These Teams
These changes in odds suggest an important betting lesson: don’t place futures on teams that are hot; instead, wait for them to experience slumps.
Good teams go through slumps, but then they’ll work their way out of those slumps. Their odds will change relative to the time when they were hot, such that there is more value on them.
The Suns, Clippers and Timberwolves are still good teams, and they are now more interesting options to invest in.
Of these teams, the Clippers are most worth considering. Phoenix is held back by ongoing turnover issues and Minnesota by lack of offensive productivity. L.A. has the talent on offense with its trio of James Harden, Paul George, and Kawhi when healthy.
The Clippers, crucially, are also improving defensively. Their defensive rating is tenth-best in April.
The Eastern Conference Favored Teams
Boston Celtics
Boston is deservedly favored to win it all. The Celtics finished as the top team in the Eastern Conference by 14 games and a seven-game lead over Minnesota and Denver for the best record in the NBA.
While Jayson Tatum has his naysayers, his career playoff production is historic – he has the third-most playoff points before the age of 25, behind only Kobe and LeBron – and his clutch moments speak for themselves.
Milwaukee Bucks
We see a drop-off from Denver at +275 to Milwaukee at +1400.
The Bucks are hanging onto the second seed in the East right now. While their offense is top-caliber, led by Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, their defense has suffered a major drop-off.
Their defensive rating is a paltry 19th. They miss elite on-ball defender Jrue Holiday, who is now a Celtic and Antetokounmpo health will be a concern.
The Western Conference Favored Team
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are behind Boston at +275to win the championship.
They just won last year and remain a legitimate candidate with Jamal Murray and two-time MVP Nikola Jokic.
Denver Over Boston
Boston’s Tatum (Eastern Conference) has clutch moments, but his extended clutch-time performance level is disappointing. His field goal percentage in clutch time is 36.1.
Jokic is much more reliable in a close game down the stretch. He is also an underrated defender partly because he is determined to avoid fouls in order to stay on the court longer.
He has very active hands, with which he amasses steals and deflections, and has the size and strength to contain opposing bigs. Denver’s defense rates are better than they did last regular season, and it will improve again in the postseason when games really count.
Historically, it is not so uncommon for teams to repeat. Led by the Jokic-Murray duo, Denver has the top-tier star talent and the chemistry to win another title.
The most favored team Boston at the current odds just isn’t worth backing, especially when Denver is more interesting.
Betting Strategy
For futures betting, value is the name of the game.
The Western Conference is so competitive that the Suns, with their trio of Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant, and with their strong defense, are in sixth place.
When you consider the gauntlet that a team in the West has to endure to reach the NBA Finals, I don’t think +275 is an attractive price, speaking of Denver.
But I do think +1400 is a good price for a champion. The key is that the Clippers are figuring things out defensively.
They just beat Cleveland by holding them to 36 second-half points. They also beat Denver 102-100. L.A. certainly has the offensive talent with its star trio. Kawhi coming back is crucial. Its depth, ball security, and experience position it above other competitors.
NBA Pick: L.A. Clippers (+1400) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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