Game 4 between the Celtics and Heat is this Monday and the top sportsbooks have already posted their NBA odds for this matchup. For your NBA best bets, I will recommend investing in the Under.
If you’re looking for more NBA picks, check out the following:
Also, don’t forget to check out our YouTube video as Donnie agrees with Rainman on the Under for this matchup and has a special bet for the Lakers-Nuggets game later tonight.
NBA Best Bet: Under 202 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Monday, April 29, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Kaseya Center
Miami’s Bounce-Back Spot
In the playoffs, under current head coach Erik Spoelstra, Miami has an excellent track record of bouncing back at home, especially after a defeat that takes place by a sizeable margin. Let’s look at last year’s examples.
After losing to Milwaukee 138-122, the Heat won at home 121-99. In the Semifinals, they beat New York 105-86 and 96-92 in two home games, each following a loss.
Against Boston, Miami lost at home 104-103 after losing its last game by 13, 110-97. In the Finals against Denver, the Heat were likewise more competitive at home following their loss in their previous game.
Takeaway
The Heat defense, every time, allows fewer points following a bad loss. Miami allowed 104 points in Game 3, so our trend dictates that it will allow fewer than 104 points in Game 4.
The Problem
The key problem for Miami is that it lacks the offensive capacity to be as competitive as it was last year.
Jimmy Butler, the team’s top scorer, is injured. Likewise, point guard Terry Rozier remains sidelined.
Three-Pointers
Game 1 between these teams this season saw a total of 208 points because Boston made 22 three-pointers.
Since Game 1, though, Miami has clamped down on the perimeter, reducing Boston’s frequency of open and wide-open three-point attempts – the Heat especially reduced the latter. Boston has therefore failed to sniff its Game 1 point total.
In Game 2, Miami scored 111 points on the strength of 23 three-pointers. But the Heat mustered 84 points in Game 3 because Boston locked them down on the perimeter.
NBA Best Bet
In order to score enough points for the Over to hit, there will need to be a barrage of three-pointers, but both defenses have figured out how to prevent that barrage from taking place.
Both teams are having trouble scoring inside where Boston has to deal with Miami’s strong and characteristically focused defense around the basket and Miami lacks sufficient playmaking talent inside.
NBA Best Bet: Under 202(-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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