The top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for tonight’s slate and three games interest me:
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves
- Thunder vs. Bucks
- Pacers vs. Lakers
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Timberwolves, Bucks and Pacers.
Top NBA Pick: Pacers +3.5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Sunday, March 24, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Target Center
Minnesota’s Top Perimeter Defenders
The Timberwolves have one of the NBA’s best perimeter defenses. They have the players to execute their varied game plans. Jaden McDaniels, for example, is one of the NBA’s top players doing this.
McDaniels locks onto the opponent’s best scorer. For example, thanks to McDaniels’ defense, Houston’s sizzling shooting guard Jalen Green went 3-for-15 for eight points in his last game against the Timberwolves.
Moreover, center Rudy Gobert has been favored heavily to win his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award. His rim protection enables perimeter defenders to guard their man more closely because they know that Gobert can clean up any messes created by ball-handlers blowing by their defender and penetrating to the basket.
But Gobert can also guard the perimeter effectively thanks to his combination of length and strong footwork. Strong defenders such as Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kyle Anderson complement McDaniels and Gobert.
Minnesota’s Perimeter Defense Stats
Overall, the Timberwolves rank third at limiting opposing three-point attempts, eighth at limiting opposing open three-point attempts and fifth at limiting opposing wide-open three-point attempts.
These stats indicate that they excel at running teams off the three-point line and at contesting opposing three-point attempts.
Ideal Opponent for Minnesota
An ideal opponent for Minnesota would be a team that relies on thriving from the perimeter because such a team would be very uncomfortable on offense as a result of Minnesota’s excellent perimeter defense.
Such a team is Golden State, Minnesota’s opponent tonight. The Warriors attempt the second-most threes per game, so they will struggle to score points.
Mid-Range Game
On offense, Minnesota loves to attack the mid-range. The Timberwolves attempt the fourth-most field goals from five to nine feet away from the basket.
They match up well against a Warriors defense that is primarily determined to limit shots at the rim.
The Pick
This defense is rather willing to allow mid-range shots: the Warriors allow by far the most field goal attempts from five to nine feet away from the basket. They also allow the fourth-highest field goal percentage on shots attempted from this space in the court.
Whereas the Warriors will be uncomfortable on offense, the Timberwolves will be eminently comfortable.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves -3 (-115) at BetOnline
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Sunday, March 24, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum
Oklahoma City’s Bad Situation
The Thunder seem to be in a good situation because they are enjoying a nice-looking win streak. But this appearance is deceiving. This win streak has come against easy opponents. Their last three victims were:
- Memphis (24-47)
- Utah (29-42)
- Toronto (23-48)
Those are bad teams, as they are all over ten games below .500. OKC is in a bad spot today because it will be difficult going from facing bad teams to facing a very good team – Milwaukee is 45-25.
Milwaukee at Home
It is not the Thunder but the Bucks who are in a great spot tonight. This is because the game takes place at home.
The Bucks are hot at home, where they’ve built a five-game winning streak. Their win streak is impressive because they’ve sustained it against strong competition. For example, they beat the Suns by eleven.
Matchup Edge
There is one team with a matchup edge and that is Milwaukee. The Bucks will love facing OKC because they love shooting three-pointers. They attempt the sixth-most threes per game. OKC, however, has a poor perimeter defense.
The Thunder rank 24th at limiting opposing three-point attempts and seventh at limiting opposing open three-point attempts. Evidently, the Thunder struggle to run teams off the three-point line and to contest opposing three-point shot attempts.
The Pick
To make matters worse, the Thunder are one of the worst defensive rebounding teams, so the Bucks will be able to score a lot even when they do miss some shots.
Matchup-wise and situationally, the Bucks are clearly the play.
NBA Pick: Bucks -3 (-115) at BetOnline
Indiana Pacers vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Sunday, March 24, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Crpyto.com Arena
L.A.’s Meaningless Win Streak
The Lakers might seem to be in a good spot because they enter today’s game on a two-game win streak.
However, besides the fact that one of their wins came against a losing Atlanta team that doesn’t protect the rim, their win streak is problematic because they’ve relied on good three-point shooting to sustain it.
This reliance on three-point shooting makes their win streak meaningless, given today’s game, because they won’t be able to rely on it tonight.
Indiana’s Perimeter Defense
Indiana has a high-caliber perimeter defense. The Pacers benefit from having guys like dedicated defenders TJ McConnell, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith. Nesmith just helped limit Warriors superstar Steph Curry to an inefficient three-point shooting performance.
Thanks to the likes of Nesmith, Indiana ranks number one by far at limiting opposing three-point attempts, fifth at limiting opposing open three-point attempts, and first at limiting opposing wide-open three-point attempts. Indiana is devoted to running teams off the three-point line and to contesting three-point attempts.
Rim Protection
This game will come down to which team can score at the rim more efficiently. The Lakers won’t be able to rely on three-point shooting, plus they tend to rely on scoring at the basket. Indiana does as well.
Both the Lakers and Pacers rank top-four in field goal attempts within five feet of the basket. But the Pacers rank seven spots ahead of the Lakers at limiting opposing field goal percentage within five feet of the basket. Shot-blocking stud Myles Turner and Indiana’s collection of good perimeter defense make it hard for opponents to attack and score at the basket.
On the other side, Indiana has scored over 120 points in five of its last six and last two games largely by scoring in the paint.
The Pick
While the Pacers have guards like Tyrese Haliburton and McConnell who ably finish around the basket, they also rely on their bigs to be efficient finishers at the basket – Pascal Siakam, Obi Toppin and Turner are all efficient within five feet of the basket.
NBA Pick: Pacers +3.5 (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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