NBA Pick: Under 209.5 (-112) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for Game 4 between the Thunder and Pelicans.
For your best bets, I will recommend the “under.” For your best bets, I will recommend playing the Magic. Also, for more of our betting analysis, you can always check out the Knicks vs. 76ers and Cavaliers vs. Magic games.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Saturday, April 27, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at Smoothie King Center
New Orleans’ Shooting Problem
The Pelicans’ offense is easy to like if you avoid taking a deeper dive. It’s easy to expect an uptick in three-point conversion rate for the Pelicans now that they are moving to their home floor. However, let’s take that deeper dive by looking at one crucial statistic.
In Game 2, the Pelicans managed all of five open-shot attempts. What this stat shows is that they are not getting good looks from behind the arc. My point is that New Orleans’ offensive outlook is negative because it owes its struggles not simply to missing good looks but to failing to get those good looks in the first place.
Without Zion Williamson, who is still injured, the Pelicans lack an inside threat, as well as creativity on offense.
Overall, they are too easy to guard behind the arc because they lack playmakers to get them open and they lack a scorer inside with which to punish Thunder defenders for worrying too much about limiting three-pointers.
Oklahoma City on the Road
The Thunder are a young team, and they showed their youth with a very nervy Game 1. They scored a lot more points in Game 2 because they made 14 threes, converting nearly half of their 29 three-point attempts.
Regardless of the game’s location, one should expect their three-point conversion rate to decline. Especially, considering the team’s overall youth, one should expect them to do a much worse job shooting the basketball. Defense travels, though, so the Thunder will lean especially on defense.
Takeaway
In the regular season, where teams expend less energy on defense than they do in the postseason, the Pelicans mustered 83 points at home when they faced the Thunder and did not have Zion.
We should not expect the Pelicans’ offense to have any sort of boost from playing at home, because defense travels and the Thunder’s defense will perpetuate its success.
However, especially due to their youth in a hostile environment, the Thunder shooting will decline after Game 2’s explosion.
NBA Pick: Under 209.5 (-112) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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