NBA Pick: Magic ML (-135) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for Game 4 between Cleveland and Orlando.
For your best bets, I will recommend playing the Magic. Also, for more of our betting analysis, you can always check out the Knicks vs. 76ers and Thunder vs. Pelicans games.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic
Saturday, April 27, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Kia Center
Cleveland’s Road Struggles
Cleveland is still worth fading on the road. If there was any doubt about whether the Cavaliers would still struggle in road playoff games this year, Game 3 provided the answer with resounding clarity when Orlando won at home by 38 points.
Last year, Cleveland lost its road playoff games, in New York, by 20 and nine points, respectively. Two years ago, the Cavaliers lost their road play-in game, getting blown out in the first quarter by the Nets who easily held on for victory after winning the first quarter by 20 points.
Orlando’s Shooting
If you didn’t watch Game 3, you’ll look at the score and assume that Orlando finally got its big game from behind the arc after shooting so poorly from deep in Games 1 and 2 in Cleveland.
However, I really like Orlando at home, not only because of Cleveland’s incessant road struggles but also because Orlando’s turnaround is not a simple matter of percentages. The Magic do not owe their success to a simple uptick in three-point conversion rate.
While, yes, they did finally shoot better, the key is that they actually shot below their regular season three-point conversion rate. So, we could still very well get a big Magic three-point shooting performance, which they seem to be due for, in Game 4
Aggression
Orlando won Game 3 because it fed off its home crowd. The Magic were more aggressive, with Jalen Suggs in attack mode and Suggs and his teammates doing a good job of pushing the pace. Orlando’s proclivity to push the pace allowed it to do a better job of turning defense into offense.
The Magic do a great job of forcing turnovers by, among other things, baiting opposing ball-handlers into making bad pass attempts through the long arms of their defenders. Partly due to their pressure but also due to their physicality and overall energy, their defense has stifled Cleveland, holding the Cavaliers to below 100 points in all three games in this series.
With a more aggressive offense, their defense is essentially making Cleveland pay on both ends of the court instead of merely limiting the Cavs’ scoring output.
In the half-court, Orlando is getting more out of its shot-makers, in addition to getting more out of Suggs for his increased willingness to attack the basket. Paolo Banchero’s 31-point performance is something that he can replicate: he scored 42 in a regular season game against these Cavaliers.
Lineup Adjustment
In terms of lineup adjustments, center Wendell Carter Jr. started Game 3 for the Magic. This was a good move, as he helped set the tone early for his team with his effort on the glass and his defensive energy.
His rebounding helped Orlando have many second-chance scoring opportunities. Overall, he lessened the impact of his counterpart Jarrett Allen, who had been Cleveland’s most valuable player on both ends of the court.
Takeaway
Cleveland under its current head coach still can’t sniff a road victory. On the other side, Orlando is a different team at home, where its energy, tempo and aggression are having a decisive effect.
The Magic defense is continuing to thrive and the team is due for a great three-point shooting performance.
NBA Pick: Magic ML (-135) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
