NBA Best Bet: Under 199.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Game 5 between Orlando Magic and Cleveland Cavaliers is scheduled tonight and the top sportsbooks have released their NBA odds.
For your best bet in this matchup, I recommend the “under.” For additional picks for the NBA Playoffs, visit our YouTube channel, including the 76ers vs. Knicks matchup.
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Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Tuesday, April 30, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
Cleveland’s Offense at Home
Returning home will certainly benefit the Cavaliers, who are reeling off two blowout losses in Orlando, but even at home, they failed to reach 100 points.
Even in Game 1, when Donovan Mitchell scored 30 points, they only scored 97 points.
Mitchell’s knee seems to be bothering him, as he aggravated it in this series and is less able to perform his signature moves as a result.
Rather than count on Mitchell’s knee to bother him, I will count on the success that aggressive defender Jalen Suggs has had when guarding Mitchell, limiting the latter’s productivity.
Orlando is also able to blitz Mitchell on ball screens, helping to limit a key part of his offense and, by extension, of Cleveland’s offense.
The response should be for Cleveland to use shooters to space the floor with. But the Cavs are just not getting much out of Darius Garland and especially out of Sam Merrill, Max Strus, and Georges Niang.
Despite its aggressiveness toward Michell, Orlando is anyhow doing a great job of limiting open and wide-open three-point opportunities for the Cavs.
Scoring Inside
Cleveland’s lack of three-point shooting positions it to rely heavily on scoring inside. The Cavaliers had their success in Games 1 and 2 inside.
Does the change in location explain their reduced ability to continue succeeding inside in Games 3 and 4?
I find it much more reasonable to contend that Orlando’s adjustments explain its strengthened interior defense.
The Magic are now starting Wendell Carter Jr. at center, placing Jonathan Isaac at the four.
Isaac is clearly more effective as the weak side defender that this lineup change is allowing him to function as. Orlando’s interior defense is at its best after this lineup adjustment.
Orlando’s Offense
Magic’s offense benefited from playing at home. Its offense fed off the energy of the home crowd, as it attacked the basket more and was generally more aggressive.
Game 4 also featured a tremendous shooting performance from the team.
Tonight’s Game 5 will see a decline in energy, now that the Magic don’t have their home crowd to feed off, and in three-point shooting.
Orlando has been one of the worst three-point shooting teams all seasons and showed this in Games 1 and 2 in Cleveland.
Tempo
The Magic like to play a slow game. In Games 3 and 4, the pace was slower than it was in Games 1 and 2.
With Carter Jr., the Magic are able to control the glass more effectively, which is helping them control the tempo.
This lineup change will carry over to Game 5, where the Magic will do a better job of slowing the game down than they did in Games 1 and 2.
NBA Best Bet
The Magic offense will decline, while its defense is even better prepared to limit the Cavaliers’ offense in what will be a slow-paced game.
NBA Best Bet: Under 199.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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