NBA Best Bet: Bucks +4.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The best sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for Game 5 between the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks.
I recommend investing in the Bucks for your best bet. For more top picks for the NBA Playoffs, visit our YouTube channel, including the 76ers vs. Knicks matchup.
Don’t miss the other NBA bets from our experts:
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tuesday, April 30, 2024 – 09:30 PM ET at Fiserv Forum
Game 4 Takeaway
Indiana’s 13-point win in Game 4 might create the impression that covering a 4.5-point spread should be no problem. But let’s consider what it took for the Pacers to win.
They had to have the performance of their lives from behind the arc: they made 22 three-pointers. Take away four three-pointers and they have just one more point than the Bucks.
Moreover, Bobby Portis was ejected after playing seven minutes. He was 2-for-4 from the floor. Portis brings significant energy and scoring prowess to Milwaukee’s offense.
Game 5 will be different because Indiana’s three-point shooting will decline and because Portis won’t get ejected.
Indiana’s Vulnerable Defense
From the beginning of the game, it was apparent that Indiana’s defense just can’t be expected to put teams away.
Milwaukee was able to own the paint while its three-point shooting wasn’t great. The Bucks have a lot of versatility and depth on offense that oddsmakers fail to account for by dogging them at home.
Malik Beasley is figuring things out, as evident in his 20-point performance. Brook Lopez stretches the floor with his three-point shooting as a center.
Khris Middleton’s shooting fell off last game after his amazing Game 3 performance, but he was still effective as a facilitator.
A.J. Green is a sharpshooter who can be even more effective than he has been off the bench. Andre Jackson Jr. injects pace and speed into Milwaukee’s offense and team. Plus there’s Portis.
Tyrese Haliburton
Indiana point guard Tyrese Haliburton is the team’s primary facilitator.
Indiana’s insane performance from behind the arc makes it easy to forget that, as evident in his assist-to-turnover ratio, Milwaukee is still doing a good job of using its length and aggression on defense to diminish Haliburton’s distribution ability.
It seems that Haliburton also might play at less than 100%, as he is listed as ‘questionable’ for today’s game with back spasms.
His absence would make it easier for the Bucks to play more zone on defense, which, statistically speaking, has had a strongly negative effect on Indiana’s half-court offense.
But zone is anyhow something that Milwaukee can rely on given Indiana’s decline in three-point shooting.
Two Team Points
One team-wide consideration is that it is not a good argument to say that Milwaukee is much worse without Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Indiana repeatedly struggles against teams that they “should” beat, with examples in the regular season including the Spurs, Hornets, Wizards, and Trail Blazers.
Moreover, this is a bad spot mentality-wise for the Pacers because they are ahead 3-1 in the series.
NBA Best Bet
It will be tough for this young team to close out the series on the road where a veteran playoff-hardened Bucks team is going to be prepared mentally.
NBA Best Bet: Bucks +4.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
