Jarry vs. Fognini
Nicolas Jarry staged another great comeback in the semi-finals against Horacio Zeballos. The 22-year-old has been the comeback king in Sao Paulo, recovering from a set down in all his last three matches on this event. As we mentioned in previous analysis, the altitude in Sao Paulo creates unusual quick conditions for the players. Known for having one of the best serves in the game, Jarry ended the match against Zeballos with an impressive average of 1.25 aces per service game.
Fabio Fognini ended Pablo Cuevas’ 15-match winning streak in Sao Paulo to book his spot in the Brazil Open final. The Italian couldn’t have asked for a better start to 2018 after winning 76.47% of the matches played so far this season. Despite his poor 5 – 9 career record in finals on the ATP World Tour, Fognini won the last two he played on clay at the Croatia Open in 2016 and at the Swiss Open in 2017.
Looking now at the odds for this contest, Fognini is the favourite to lift the trophy in Sao Paulo at 11/25 at BetVictor while 5Dimes offers 21/10 for Jarry’s victory. Even though we agree with Fabio’s favouritism due to his undeniable talent and higher experience at this level, it’s impossible to go against Jarry at the moment. Having said that, our recommendation is for you to place a bet on the Chilean’s +1.5 Set Handicap at 18/25 at Pinnacle as the best betting approach for this final.
Best Play: Nicolas Jarry +1.5 Set Handicap at 18/25 at Pinnacle