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Jackofhearts

Jackofhearts

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Matt Severance

PHOENIX @ MILWAUKEE | 07/14 | 9:00 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -175
ANALYSIS: I see no reason why Milwaukee won't win at home again as the Bucks have dominated at Fiserv Forum in these playoffs other than one game vs. Atlanta. I'd certainly feel even better about fading the Suns if Scott Foster was one of the referees again, though. Are you aware that Chris Paul's teams have lost 12 straight playoff games refereed by Foster? More to the point, pun intended: Devin Booker's three-point shooting woes are becoming a real problem -- although I still expect Phoenix to win the series barring injury.
 

Jackofhearts

Jackofhearts

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Larry Hartstein

PHOENIX @ MILWAUKEE | 07/14 | 9:00 PM EDT
PHOENIX +4
ANALYSIS: This will be the first really tight game of the series. Devin Booker will bounce back from his 3-of-14 debacle, Mikal Bridges will be a factor again, and Monty Williams will keep DeAndre Ayton on the floor even if he gets in foul trouble. Williams now knows he can't afford to play extended minutes with Frank Kaminsky (minus-12 in 14 minutes) and Torrey Craig (minus-12 in 15 minutes). Phoenix was in a similar position against the Clippers. After the Suns got blown out in Game 3, cutting their series lead to 2-1, they responded with a gritty four-point win to take command of the series. Look for a similar response Wednesday.
 

Jackofhearts

Jackofhearts

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1,218
Micah Roberts

PHOENIX @ MILWAUKEE | 07/14 | 9:00 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -4
ANALYSIS: It’s crazy when looking at the Game 3 box score and seeing that the Suns shot 48% from the field, but still lost by 20 points. Cam Johnson was great off the bench, Jae Crowder made 6 of 7 3-pointer, but Devin Booker was yanked way early for poor play shooting only 3 of 14 from the field. But Chris Paul (-13) didn’t lead, either. Mikal Bridges was also a no-show. The Bucks did that to them in Milwaukee shooting only 48% themselves. The Bucks won the mental game. Booker will show up in Game 4, but the home vibe will get to the Suns again. Bucks get the Game 4 cover in another high-scoring game.
 

Jackofhearts

Jackofhearts

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Top Flight Sports

NBA
Game: (507) Phoenix Suns at (508) Milwaukee Bucks
Date/Time: Jul 14 2021 9:00 PM EDT
Play Rating: D units
Play: Milwaukee Bucks -4.0 (-110)
Bucks (9 PM ET ABC) – My first foray into the NBA Finals was a good one as Milwaukee hammers Phoenix 120-100 to cover the number easily in Game 3. Prior to Game 3, I said I still liked Milwaukee to win this series and I’m going to come right back and lay the small number again when the Bucks battle the Phoenix Suns in Game 4 of the NBA Finals at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Game 3 went exactly as I said it would in the respect Milwaukee made all the right adjustments and Phoenix shot the ball terribly from the field. I suppose one could chalk that up to an off night for the Suns but I think that had more to do with the Buck's increased intensity on defense and the fact the Suns simply shoot it worse on the road than they do in Phoenix. There’s an old saying in the NBA that these series don’t truly start until someone wins on the road, that has yet to happen yet in this NBA Finals and I don’t think it’s happening here. Milwaukee was 26-10 at home during the regular season and moves to 8-1 at the Fiserv Forum after their 20 point Game 3 blowout win. Milwaukee has destroyed Phoenix on points in the paint all series and had the Suns not went off for 20 three-pointers I think the Bucks would be the team ahead in this series right now. There is no disputing the fact Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best player on the floor right now for either team, I don’t think Phoenix can stop him and I think Giannis gives another massive effort and leads Milwaukee to a series-tying win here.
I think it’s safe to say Chris Paul and Devin Booker will both be better than they were in Game 3 (they were both awful) but I still think the Suns are relying too heavily on the outside shot to win in Milwaukee. As I said prior to Game 3, Milwaukee CAN defend, and once they figured out how to guard Booker the Phoenix offense got a lot less effective. Milwaukee is dominating in the paint and on the glass in this series which means it’s probably going to take a huge shooting performance for Phoenix to win and that’s just less likely to happen on the road. In addition to turning up the intensity on defense, the Bucks have also gotten more aggressive on offense and it’s become quite obvious that Milwaukee can use their athleticism and size to get to the rim. Giannis should continue to have Deandre Ayton in foul trouble and Jrue Holiday is also more physical than anyone on Phoenix has an answer for. Khris Middleton still didn’t do much in Game 3 so he’s overdue to break out and I think if he puts up one of the 30 point efforts he’s capable of we see Milwaukee run away in Game 4 again and send this series back to the desert tied 2-2.
Another thing I’ve talked about all playoffs is the superior depth on this Milwaukee Bucks team. I’ve been critical of Mike Budenholzer at times for playing too many guys but it’s really paid off as we go deeper into the playoffs as Milwaukee has been the deeper and less fatigued team in their past two series. Milwaukee showed they could win games without Giannis which means other guys on this Bucks team know they can step up and win if needed. Now Giannis is back and not only is he back but he’s back to peak form putting up 40+ the past two games. If Giannis is going to play to the potential there’s just no way Phoenix is the better team here. The equalizer for Phoenix is their ability to knock down the three but it’s far more difficult to win that way on the road and I think a rebounding edge and a big advantage in paint scoring gets it done for Milwaukee by margin again here.
I’ve had Milwaukee as the best team in the Eastern Conference all playoffs and every time the Bucks have needed a win in this playoffs they have shown up with a big effort. Milwaukee simply can’t afford to go back to Phoenix down 3-1 so I think this is another spot where Milwaukee needs a huge performance and pulls through. Milwaukee has been lights out on their home floor winning eight of nine in the playoffs and most of those have been blowout wins. For as good as Phoenix is I still think they had a watered-down road to get to this point and had Lebron James and/or Kawhi Leonard not been hurt this Suns team probably doesn’t make it to the finals. Milwaukee is rounding into form at the right time, Giannis is by far the best player on the floor here and I’ll back the Bucks again to hold serve at home and cover the small number in the process. Play on Bucks -4 for 4 units
 

Jackofhearts

Jackofhearts

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Docs

Docs- Justin Thomas -105 over Schauffele FULL TOURNEY (DU)
Docs- Dustin Johnson -125 over DeChambeau FULL TOURNEY (DU)
Docs- Westwood +100 over Casey FULL TOURNEY (DU)
Docs- Trinidad and Tobago +.5 -125 (DU)
Indian Cowboy- El Salvador -110 (DU)
Vernon Croy- Oosthuizen -145 over Fleetwood FULL TOURNEY (HU)
 

Jackofhearts

Jackofhearts

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Messages
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Mike Barner

PHOENIX @ MILWAUKEE | 07/14 | 9:00 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -4
ANALYSIS: Everything went right for the Bucks during their 20-point victory in Game 3. Giannis Antetokounmpo was excellent from the free-throw line, Phoenix's Deandre Ayton was limited by foul trouble and teammate Devin Booker couldn’t get anything going from the field. Don’t expect all three of those things to happen again in Game 4, which should be a closer contest. Still, with how well the Bucks have played at home and the jolt of energy Bobby Portis provides off the bench there, I like them to cover.
 

Jackofhearts

Jackofhearts

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Kyle Akins

PHOENIX @ MILWAUKEE | 07/14 | 9:00 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -4
ANALYSIS: Milwaukee finally made adjustments in Game 3 that are key to its fortunes in this series. In particular, the Bucks learned what they need to do when Deandre Ayton is off the court. Milwaukee is looking to even the series at 2-2 after winning Game 3, 120-100. Teams are 26-16-1 ATS in the final three rounds of the playoffs when looking to even the series at 2-2 after winning Game 3.
 

Jackofhearts

Jackofhearts

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Green Falcon Picks (of Green Pitch Sports)

CS Alagoano AL - Goias EC GO
Brazil, Serie B, 00:00 CET (Jul 15) / 6:00 PM ET
1.1 Units: CS Alagoano AL 0 -115

Full record, since February 20:
81-53-6 (71.5-49.5-6) / +57.925 Units
 
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