Service Plays - Sunday 9/12/21

Bettor Days

HITMAN | NFL Sides - Sunday, Sep 12 2021 1:00PM
467 MIN -3.0 (-110)Circa Sports vs 468 CIN double-dime bet

Analysis: I make this game Vikings -3.25, which means I have close to neutral power rating value, but the matchup and Joe Burrow's return circumstances heavily favor Minnesota.

Joe Burrow is only 9 in a half months from not only tearing his ACL and MCL, but he also had damage to his meniscus and PCL. All reports coming out of Cincinnati from beat writers, and also quotes from players such as Tyler Boyd, are saying that Burrow is far from 100% at the moment.

Meanwhile. Minnesota has made major additions in their front 7 that should be able to take advantage of a bottom five Bengals offensive line. The Bengals defense projects to be one of the leagues worst, and defensively they will be without CB Trae Waynes, leaving journeyman corners Chidobe Awuzie and Eli Apple in charge of covering Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. Cincinnati has also failed to make any significant upgrades to last years 31st ranked rushing defense in YPC allowed, making this a huge mismatch in favor of Dalvin Cook and the Vikings.

Bettor Days

Mike Tierney

ANALYSIS: To say that coach John Harbaugh gets the Ravens ready for season openers is an under statement. Baltimore has outscored its last four Week 1 opponents by a remarkable average of 41-5, with margins of victory at 32, 49, 44 and 20. While conventional thought suggest the Monday night home underdog side holds an edge, the theory did not stand up last year. Visitors went 12-5 straight up, with one of the wins achieved by Baltimore at Cleveland. Las Vegas overhauled much of its roster and the extreme makeover can pay off eventually, but the schedule-maker dealt the Raiders a rough card in the opener.

Bettor Days

Matt Severance

ANALYSIS: I will normally wait until at least Friday to pick NFL games, but I'm going to break that rule here simply because most books have the Chiefs now at -6.5 and some at -7, and I don't want those numbers so I'll have to hope no COVID issues between now and Sunday for Kansas City. The Browns could be stellar this year but are they ready to win at a full Arrowhead Stadium? Not sure of that. Plus, I'm sure you know that Cleveland has just a single opening day victory since returning to the NFL. Sometimes you see a Super Bowl hangover even for the loser -- but I think the Chiefs (and their new offensive line) come out like gangbusters to put that terrible effort behind them once and for all. They have covered four straight Week 1 games.

Bettor Days

Jeff Hochman

ANALYSIS: The Lions have a very good offensive line and will be able to put some points on the board against a team that's learning a new defense. The 49ers also have a new offensive coordinator. I don't think having QBs Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance splitting reps helps either. This line is super-inflated. Home teams getting at least seven points in Week 1 have been very profitable. Take the underdog Lions.

Bettor Days

Martin Green

Poland vs. England (2:45 p.m. ET)

England to win and 2 or more goals in match (+105)

Northern Ireland vs. Switzerland (2:45 p.m. ET)

Switzerland to win (-150)

Iceland vs. Germany (2:45 p.m. ET)

Germany win to nil (-118)

Greece vs. Sweden (2:45 p.m. ET)

Sweden to win (+110)


Staff member

Game: (465) Seattle Seahawks at (466) Indianapolis Colts
Date/Time: Sep 12 2021 1:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D%
Play: Total Over 49.5 (-110)
465) OVER 49 SEA-IND...(D%)


Staff member
Mad George

Game: (477) Green Bay Packers at (478) New Orleans Saints
Date/Time: Sep 12 2021 4:25 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5 units
Play: Green Bay Packers -140
With Aaron Rodgers returning, I think there is great value in backing the Pack here.
The Saints will be without Mike Thomas and their entire WR crew is a big question mark coming into the season.
Their defense will be solid but there is a lot of tape to watch on Taysom Hill and I expect all opponents to be better prepared for the dual-threat QB/TE.
These two teams met last season and both were missing their top wide-outs, Adams and Thomas.
I expect this line to move to -3 or possibly -3.5
Take the Packers-2.5 or on the ML!

Bettor Days

Jesse Schule

Game: (471) Cleveland Browns at (472) Kansas City Chiefs
Date/Time: Sep 12 2021 4:25 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D units
Play: Cleveland Browns +6.5 (-115)
This is an 8* play on Cleveland.
The Browns open as a big underdog on the road at Kansas City, and I gonna make a move here taking the points. Baker Mayfield versus Patrick Mahomes is an intriguing matchup, one that we've seen plenty of times in the past. Most recently in last year's playoffs, when the Chiefs survived with a 22-17 win at Arrowhead. The most memorable head to head meeting came back in 2016 when Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma won 66-59 in historic shootout versus Mahomes and Texas Tech. This is a lot of points for a Chiefs team that is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 overall. The history between these teams shows the road team covering in four straight and the underdog covering in six of the last eight meetings.


Staff member
James Patrick Sports

E* Pot of Gold NFL GOW
Los Angeles Rams -7
Bears vs. Rams 8:20 pm est.
Chicago was a surprising playoff team last year after finishing (8-8), winning six games by seven or fewer points. Historically, that’s not a good indicator of future improvement. The Bears lack juice. There are many different factors that make it so, but the bottom line is indisputable, the offense. What makes it success so difficult for the Rams, is that the they are in one of the toughest division in football, which means there was a very real possibility they could be competitive and one of the best offensive teams in football and still risk failing to make the playoffs once again. This team still has a great deal of star power — new QB Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. This is a huge year for the Rams. The biggest of McVay's career. The Rams’ defensive unit allowed the fewest points in the league at (18.5) points per game. L.A. is undefeated in season openers during the Sean McVay era and the Bears annually struggle on the trips out west.

(E*) Pot of Gold Play. #480. Take Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago

Bettor Days

R.J. White

MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND | 09/12 | 4:25 PM EDT
ANALYSIS: This line has grown since Mac Jones was named the starter for the Patriots, which is a little wild when you consider he's making his first career start as the fifth QB drafted in April and doing it against a premium secondary with a head coach who knows this team very well in Brian Flores. I think if you can catch a field goal in this matchup, I like backing the Dolphins, especially with Stephon Gilmore unavailable for the Patriots. One other consideration: the Pats are going with a rookie UDFA kicker who struggled even at the collegiate level, and the Dolphins' big edge at the position could be the difference but isn't really being factored into the line.

DALLAS @ TAMPA BAY | 09/09 | 8:20 PM EDT
ANALYSIS: I initially thought this line was where it should be based on my power ratings but was giving the edge to the Bucs with defending champs going 14-6 ATS in their last 20 Week 1 games. I had hoped good Dak Prescott news would move the line down to Bucs -7 and give us an even bigger edge, but it's instead ticked the other way after Zack Martin was ruled out due to a positive COVID-19 test. Consider that a preview of the unpredictable nature of the 2021 NFL season, where sudden, unexpected player absences will wreak havoc on line movement expectations. I'm still laying it with the Bucs and think they win by 10-plus here.

ANALYSIS: After we found out Aaron Rodgers wasn't leaving Green Bay, this line sat at Packers -3 for much of the preseason. After we found out it would be played in Jacksonville instead of New Orleans, it was rehung at Packers -4. As much as I've harped on home-field advantage not being worth three points, it's certainly worth more than one, particularly for a team like the Saints. Throw in the disruption of their regular routine by being on the road for the foreseeable future due to Hurricane Ida, along with Michael Thomas' injury leaving New Orleans shorthanded at receiver, and this line looks several points light to me.

ANALYSIS: No matter how optimistic you are about the Browns, I just don't think this line makes much sense. Yes, the last time these two teams took the field in January, the Browns only lost by five points, but Patrick Mahomes left that game with a concussion and the Chiefs offense still rolled up 438 yards and probably should have put more points on the board. Now, they head into the season much stronger on the offensive line, negating the Browns' upgrades defensively. If Kansas City gets on a roll in the first half, I'm not sure the Browns passing offense will be able to lead the team back, especially with Odell Beckham's health an open question.

ANALYSIS: The Chargers travel cross-country to play Washington in Week 1 with a relative unknown at head coach in Brandon Staley. The Coach of the Year market suggests Staley might be a pretty good coach, but at this point, who knows if he's Matt LaFleur, Zac Taylor or something in between. While Justin Herbert looks like a star in the making, his situation is different from LaFleur getting a future HOF QB to help ease his transition. Washington's defense really shined in the back half of last season, and with the team's upgrade at QB, they appear to be underrated heading into Week 1 as home 'dogs, even with Washington not having much of a home-field advantage in recent years.

ANALYSIS: The market is predicting Houston will be the worst team in the league this year. And maybe they're right; the Texans certainly seem willing to trade veterans for picks and plan for the future. But it's not often you're able to catch points against the previous year's worst team in Week 1 with a rookie quarterback at the helm. Throw in Urban Meyer doing little to inspire confidence over the summer, and the only way this line makes sense is if the Texans are historically bad. I'll have to see that to believe it; remember that Tyrod Taylor posted a winning record with a mediocre Bills roster in two of three years by limiting mistakes. Against this defense, the Texans are certainly a live dog.

ANALYSIS: Here's a matchup of two teams with bad defenses and next to no expectations for a successful season. So why is this total only 45? It probably has to do with the public hating Houston this year, and while I get the roster is one of the least talented in the league, that doesn't mean they'll be stopped by a Jaguars defense that allowed more than 30 points per game last year. After their shocking win over Indy in Week 1, the Jags only held one opponent under 27 points the rest of the year. A market-projected score of 24-21 is giving the Jacksonville defense too much credit, making the Over a nice value play here.

DENVER @ N.Y. GIANTS | 09/12 | 4:25 PM EDT
UNDER 42.5
ANALYSIS: I feel like I'm going to be on a lot of Giants Unders this year, thanks to their quality defense and questions on offense, particularly in the trenches. I also think people will be looking to play Unders in Broncos games too, with Teddy Bridgewater belonging to the lower tier of NFL starting QBs and Von Miller back in action after missing last season. Here, we get those two teams playing each other, and the Giants have had to deal with injured or recovering skill players all throughout the preseason. This game has "first team to 20 wins" written all over it.

UNDER 48.5
ANALYSIS: The Colts are starting to feel like the 2020 Philadelphia Eagles, and not just because of the guy under center. The Eagles had high expectations last year but dealt with a string of injuries before the season, even more early in the year and ultimately collapsed. Time will tell if the Colts can weather the storm, but with T.Y. Hilton out, left tackle a question mark and Carson Wentz barely practicing with the first unit before kickoff of this game, I can't help but think points will be hard to come by for Indy, especially after the Seahawks defense largely dominated last year after the acquisition of Jamal Adams. Seattle won't open up the fireworks if they don't have to, so expect a low score.

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